NewStats: 3,265,307 , 8,186,337 topics. Date: Saturday, 14 June 2025 at 11:11 AM 2q1d11

emmaodet:


Beta Glass -
The company is into the production of glass bottles for companies like Smirnoff Ice, Mcdowells, Squadron, Best Whisky, Chelsea, Lord's Gin, Royal Eagle, Schnapps, Orijin Bitters, Veleta wine, Amstel Malt, Guinnenss, Heineken, Guilder, 33, Harp, Trophy Goldberg and many more.
They also pproduce glass bottles crow cover ( bottle covers we use openers for
hey also produce drinks crates e.g crates for cokes etc

Revenue (2020 - 2024E) = 25.6b - 37b - 54.3b - 62.9b - 105b (E)
Revenue YOY (2020 to 2024E) = 44.5% - 46.8% - 15.8% - 67% (E)
Net Profit (2020 - 2024E) = 3.5b - 5.5b - 4.7b - 6.4b - 10.5b (E)
Net Margin (2020 - 2024E) = 13.7% - 14.9% - 8.7% -10.2% - 10% (E)
EPS (2020 - 2024E) = 6.93 - 10.92 -7.81 - 10.74 - 17.5 (E)
Equity ( 2020 - 2024E) = 37.2b - 42.1 - 46.3b - 52b - 60b(E)

She is spending less to make more sales/revenue which reduced from 2.5% in 2023 to 1.4% in 2024
Balance sheet is deteriorating due to Debt rising very much of 31.4b than cash of 12b compared to previous year of cash 26.8b and debt 24.6b
receivable increased by 800% from 3b to 27b
Inventory increased by 100% to7.3b
FCF reduced 121% from 9.6b to -2b. Negative FCF of -2b

Dep. Margin improved to 21% from 31.5% but we want 10%
Capex margin improved to 68.6% from 85% but we still prefer 25%

5% of revenue came from exported products while 95% sales is from local base.

Current P/E = 4.1, Forward P/E = 3.7, 5yrs P/E (mean) = 5.4, Current price = #64.9
Calculating for the implied earnings:

TTM earnings per share = Current price ÷ TTM P/E
#64.9 ÷ 4.1 = #15.83 (TTM EPS)
Forward earnings per share = Current price ÷ Forward P/E
#64.9 ÷ 3.7 = #17.54 (Forward EPS)

Using the TTM EPS = #15.83, Forward EPS = #17.54, historical 5-year average P/E of 5.4:
TTM-based price:
Implied Price = TTM EPS × Historical P/E
#15.83 × 5.4 = #85.48

Forward-based price:
Implied Price = Forward EPS × Historical P/E
#17.54 × 5.4 = #94.72

Therefore, based on the company's own historical valuation:

Using TTM earnings, the implied price is #85.48
Using forward earnings, the implied price is #94.72

Since the current price is $64.90, this suggests the stock might be undervalued by:

#20.58 (31.7%) based on TTM earnings
#29.82 (46.0%) based on forward earnings

Let me start by saying that I haven’t looked deeply into the details beyond glancing at the audited 2023 earnings and the unaudited third-quarter 2024 earnings. The rest of my analysis is based on basic technical analysis and statistics.

My estimated final EPS for 2024 is similar to yours at 16.9. If the dividend follows the very low payout from 2023, it should be around ₦1.8 per share. It looks like a solid company focused on growth, which explains why only 11% of earnings are being paid as dividends. This low dividend payout pattern may continue, as the chart doesn’t show any anomalies in volume—unless, of course, they’re exceptionally good at hiding information.

With the kind of EPS they’re generating, the stock should be trading between ₦92 and ₦177, but the low dividend payout is holding back share price growth. This is the type of company that could issue a bonus in the future, perhaps something like a 3-for-2 stock split.

I’ll be keeping an eye out for anomalies in trading volume. While I believe the stock price will rise, I also expect it to dip below the current price at some point during the year due to the low dividend payout, only to recover later.

I hope they keep up with the same payout ratio.
Like you said before, if the Q4 is as good as Q3, something close to a N5 dividend should be possible and at the current price that should represent greater than a 10% dividend yield, which is much better than what a bank like Access would give you.
I was hoping to see a price drop but it doesn’t seem like a bad buy at current price

emmanuelewumi:




Check out the dividend growth in the last 5 years.

I will share the return on equity growth and margin growth in the last 5 years later in the day

Sunrisepebble:
I hope they keep up with the same payout ratio.
Like you said before, if the Q4 is as good as Q3, something close to a N5 dividend should be possible and at the current price that should represent greater than a 10% dividend yield, which is much better than what a bank like Access would give you.
I was hoping to see a price drop but it doesn’t seem like a bad buy at current price

Nahco shares worth N930 million was traded yesterday, that should be the highest in a long time

Pesuzok:


It's been a while since I saw your post. E be like Oando don turn you to investor.

Everybody is in a game.
You are in a game.
Wale is in a game.

You want to do a quick JIJO to collect the bonus shares.
But Wale is the cowboy, not you.
You must go long term or forget the distribution.

He will do the shares distribution when he is good and ready; which is when there is new good news, wheather of acquisition or superb result, to checkmate dumping.


This comment was meant to quote designking, not pesuzok.
I clicked the wrong quote button.

Nahco

Revenue growth

2019 N9.9 billion
2020 7.1 billion
2021 N10.2 billion
2022 N16.7 billion
2023 N28.4 billion
2024 N42 billion ( forecast based on N33.9 billion achieved in Q3 2024)



PAT growth

2019 N718 million
2020 N302 million
2021 N771 million
2022 N2.7 billion
2023 N5.5 billion
2024 N12.2 billion ( forecast based on N9.17 billion achieved in Q3 2024)


Shareholders fund growth

2019 N6.6 billion
2020 N6.4 billion
2021 N7 billion
2022 N9 billion
2023 N12.1 billion
2024 N16.3 billion



Return on Equity growth

2019 11%
2020 5%
2021 11%
2022 30%
2023 45%
2024 73% ( forecast based on Q3 2024 s)


Net profit margin growth

2019 7%
2020 4%
2021 7.5%
2022 16%
2023 19.5%
2024 29%.

When return on equity is growing and margin is improving, you should be sure of bumper harvest

emmanuelewumi:



Nahco shares worth N930 million was traded yesterday, that should be the highest in a long time

Why didn't they renew the tenure of a performing ceo.This begs for an answer. How do we know a cowboy has not taken over who may not sustain anything

Streetinvestor2:
Why didn't they renew the tenure of a performing ceo.This begs for an answer. How do we know a cowboy has not taken over who may not sustain anything

I don't know.

Some CEOs are career turn around managers, once they have turned around a company they move on to the next assignment.


If you look at the CV of the former CEO he has worked in about 3 continents and about 2 countries in Africa.


Nahco is now turned around, I hope the new managers will continue from where he stopped.


Take it or leave it Obasanjo did something similar when he left about 18 years ago but subsequent leaders did not improve on the foundation he made

It is always difficult to increase your return when you have more fund.

You can easy make a return on investment of 30% on N10 million but will be difficult to maintain that with N10 billion.

So when a business shareholders fund increase and the return on equity increased, the managers of the business are efficient.

In most cases when shareholders fund increases, return on equity take a slight dive or at best it will be flat

We had COVID-19 in 2020, and it had a adverse effect on the aviation sector.

Reason why the return on equity, profit margin, revenue etc were low in 2020

They have ambitious revenue growth targets. I’m wondering how they’ll achieve it

My concern is the same as street. I hope the Indian CEO left a good system in place so it’s easy for the new CEO to carry on the good works

emmanuelewumi:
Nahco

Revenue growth

2019 N9.9 billion
2020 7.1 billion
2021 N10.2 billion
2022 N16.7 billion
2023 N28.4 billion
2024 N42 billion ( forecast based on N33.9 billion achieved in Q3 2024)



PAT growth

2019 N718 million
2020 N302 million
2021 N771 million
2022 N2.7 billion
2023 N5.5 billion
2024 N12.2 billion ( forecast based on N9.17 billion achieved in Q3 2024)

Return on Equity growth

2019 11%
2020 5%
2021 11%
2022 30%
2023 45%
2024 73% ( forecast based on Q3 2024 s)


Net profit margin growth

2019 7%
2020 4%
2021 7.5%
2022 16%
2023 19.5%
2024 29%.

When return on equity is growing and margin is improving, you should be sure of bumper harvest

emmanuelewumi:
It is always difficult to increase your return when you have more fund.

You can easy make a return on investment of 30% on N10 million but will be difficult to maintain that with N10 billion.

Why is business/investment really like this in the statements above.Is it fear of not taking risk and playing safe.Or because you feel you have arrived your comfort zone

Streetinvestor2:
Why is business/investment really like this in the statements above.Is it fear of not taking risk and playing safe.Or because you feel you have arrived your comfort zone

When you have more money you are concerned with safety, consistency and scalability.

If one uses 100k to start akara business at Oshodi bus stop and you made a profit of 500k at the end of the year

Do you think investing N10 million in this business will give a return of N50 million at the end of the year

olaremint:


Scam alert, scam alert, s do the needful

I see no scam threat.

All his posts are self-promotional, self- magnifying, comical and entertaining.

Then he will beg you for one little favour.

If he succeeds in tricking you into sending him data or airtime, I don't think that will ruin you.

emmanuelewumi:



When you have more money you are concerned with safety, consistency and scalability.

If one uses 100k to start akara business at Oshodi bus stop and you made a profit of 500k at the end of the year

Do you think investing N10 million in this business will give a return of N50 million at the end of the year

It will take younger ones 10 good years to agree or understand what you are saying.Until they come of age.Metamorphosis of life.

Loco @ 5 years ago would have counter this statement but now @ 45 I am beginning to understand your wealth of knowledge.What you said is 100% truith oga Emma.

You have done a good work which deserves payment but God will bless you for the nurturing.

zendi:

I see no scam threat.

All his posts are self-promotional, self- magnifying, comical and entertaining.

Then he will beg you for one little favour.

If he succeeds tricking you into sending him data or airtime, I don't think that will ruin you.

You really don't know how SCAM works

megawealth01:


You really don't know how SCAM works

emmanuelewumi:



When you have more money you are concerned with safety, consistency and scalability.

If one uses 100k to start akara business at Oshodi bus stop and you made a profit of 500k at the end of the year

Do you think investing N10 million in this business will give a return of N50 million at the end of the year

oga Emma u nailed it. This is exactly what I try to explain to some folks who me: everything is not just rate. when the capital is huge the 1st thing is the safety of the capital. Return of capital is always the first consideration, followed by return on capital. Imagine an investor with 2 billion naira all his questions about any proposed investment to him will be around how the 2 billion will come back before considering the proposed rate. The truth is that investors of such magnitude of fund will question any high rate.

emmaodet:


Beta Glass -
The company is into the production of glass bottles for companies like Smirnoff Ice, Mcdowells, Squadron, Best Whisky, Chelsea, Lord's Gin, Royal Eagle, Schnapps, Orijin Bitters, Veleta wine, Amstel Malt, Guinnenss, Heineken, Guilder, 33, Harp, Trophy Goldberg and many more.
They also pproduce glass bottles crow cover ( bottle covers we use openers for
hey also produce drinks crates e.g crates for cokes etc

Revenue (2020 - 2024E) = 25.6b - 37b - 54.3b - 62.9b - 105b (E)
Revenue YOY (2020 to 2024E) = 44.5% - 46.8% - 15.8% - 67% (E)
Net Profit (2020 - 2024E) = 3.5b - 5.5b - 4.7b - 6.4b - 10.5b (E)
Net Margin (2020 - 2024E) = 13.7% - 14.9% - 8.7% -10.2% - 10% (E)
EPS (2020 - 2024E) = 6.93 - 10.92 -7.81 - 10.74 - 17.5 (E)
Equity ( 2020 - 2024E) = 37.2b - 42.1 - 46.3b - 52b - 60b(E)

She is spending less to make more sales/revenue which reduced from 2.5% in 2023 to 1.4% in 2024
Balance sheet is deteriorating due to Debt rising very much of 31.4b than cash of 12b compared to previous year of cash 26.8b and debt 24.6b
receivable increased by 800% from 3b to 27b
Inventory increased by 100% to7.3b
FCF reduced 121% from 9.6b to -2b. Negative FCF of -2b

Dep. Margin improved to 21% from 31.5% but we want 10%
Capex margin improved to 68.6% from 85% but we still prefer 25%

5% of revenue came from exported products while 95% sales is from local base.

Current P/E = 4.1, Forward P/E = 3.7, 5yrs P/E (mean) = 5.4, Current price = #64.9
Calculating for the implied earnings:

TTM earnings per share = Current price ÷ TTM P/E
#64.9 ÷ 4.1 = #15.83 (TTM EPS)
Forward earnings per share = Current price ÷ Forward P/E
#64.9 ÷ 3.7 = #17.54 (Forward EPS)

Using the TTM EPS = #15.83, Forward EPS = #17.54, historical 5-year average P/E of 5.4:
TTM-based price:
Implied Price = TTM EPS × Historical P/E
#15.83 × 5.4 = #85.48

Forward-based price:
Implied Price = Forward EPS × Historical P/E
#17.54 × 5.4 = #94.72

Therefore, based on the company's own historical valuation:

Using TTM earnings, the implied price is #85.48
Using forward earnings, the implied price is #94.72

Since the current price is $64.90, this suggests the stock might be undervalued by:

#20.58 (31.7%) based on TTM earnings
#29.82 (46.0%) based on forward earnings

Well done


It is a capital intensive business, capex margin of 68% is on the highside coupled with low dividend payout.

I prefer businesses with capex margin of 20% and below although 10% and below is preferable.


What percentage of the net operating cash flow did they use for capex. 30% and below of net operating cash flow is better.

emmasoft:



oga Emma u nailed it. This is exactly what I try to explain to some folks who me: everything is not just rate. when the capital is huge the 1st thing is the safety of the capital. Return of capital is always the first consideration, followed by return on capital. Imagine an investor with 2 billion naira all his questions about any proposed investment to him will be around how the 2 billion will come back before considering the proposed rate. The truth is that investors of such magnitude of fund will question any high rate.

Reason why investors lost money investing through digital agricultural platforms.

Some of them could give return of 40% to 50%, provided the capital was less than N20 million, but some of the promoters ended up with billions of Naira and couldn't deliver

megawealth01:
I told you the last time that your client isn't here

ignore him. His a well known scammer with different monikers.

Streetinvestor2:
Why is business/investment really like this in the statements above.Is it fear of not taking risk and playing safe.Or because you feel you have arrived your comfort zone

This is common sense. I’m sure that, as a businessman, you already know the answer and just wanted to hear his perspective.

Businesses often hit the ceiling of their market share, which can be influenced by factors such as location, company size, product type, and product quality. If you can’t expand your market share, injecting more capital into the business will result in diminishing efficiency.

This is one reason why successful entrepreneurs often diversify into other businesses—when their available capital exceeds the needs of their current business. Some try to expand their market share by offering more products, exporting, or investing in related businesses.

The ability of management to widen their market share or tap into new opportunities is a key factor that drives sustained business growth.

Ecom 101

Streetinvestor2:
Why is business/investment really like this in the statements above.Is it fear of not taking risk and playing safe.Or because you feel you have arrived your comfort zone

small opportunities are many for small capital especially if you can work hard on finding rare ideas but with bigger capital you can't participate as you like and you get to compete with smarter people or better. That why businesses needs moat and boring for competitors with quality franchise and long staying power to reinvest capital. That way compounding works for you. My best learning from investing is being a better business man and improving on capital allocation.

starpower:
small opportunities are many for small capital especially if you can work hard on finding rare ideas but with bigger capital you can't participate as you like and you get to compete with smarter people or better. That why businesses needs moat and boring for competitors with quality franchise and long staying power to reinvest capital. That way compounding works for you. My best learning from investing is being a better business man and improving on capital allocation.

Diminishing returns set in as you expand beyond the carrying capacity of the business structure and system, competition is also very high with small businesses, small businesses are not scalable. Small businesses require your presence and personal touch which might not be easy to replicate.

When you are in a small business that is not scalable it is better to reinvest your profit in real estate or financial assets, in few years time you should be making more income from real estate or financial assets

Are there some of us here who have not received payout from the Flour Mills Nigeria PLC buyout and Delistment scheme? I am yet to receive my payout and Atlas Registrar's is not responding to mails

sterlingD:
Are there some of us here who have not received payout from the Flour Mills Nigeria PLC buyout and Delistment scheme? I am yet to receive my payout and Atlas Registrar's is not responding to mails

Me too. Yet to get paid

essentialone1:


Any one has any update on Afrinvest website that has been undergoing upgrade forever?

?

@essentialone1

Which upgrade oga?
The app is functional and friendly.
Only that they can't see my BUY because of 1.8% and 2.18% fees in buy/sell.

I use Afrinvest and investmentone to view market data till they reduce their fees,we can start funding and buying

The page below is from Afrinvest app

ositadima1:


This is common sense. I’m sure that, as a businessman, you already know the answer and just wanted to hear his perspective.

Businesses often hit the ceiling of their market share, which can be influenced by factors such as location, company size, product type, and product quality. If you can’t expand your market share, injecting more capital into the business will result in diminishing efficiency.

This is one reason why successful entrepreneurs often diversify into other businesses—when their available capital exceeds the needs of their current business. Some try to expand their market share by offering more products, exporting, or investing in related businesses.

The ability of management to widen their market share or tap into new opportunities is a key factor that drives sustained business growth.

Ecom 101

Econ 721

Sunrisepebble:

He needs a prophetic utterances.Where is that prophet? He has been silent for long. What sayest thou on OANDO prophet ?

Locotrader:
@essentialone1

Which upgrade oga?
The app is functional and friendly.
Only that they can't see my BUY because of 1.8% and 2.18% fees in buy/sell.

I use Afrinvest and investmentone to view market data till they reduce their fees,we can start funding and buying
I hope this cham will perform well next week?
The page below is from Afrinvest app

toyeoye:



Thanks for pointing this out! I noticed from the stats that 22 iOS s were active yesterday, so this might be an isolated case. However, if anyone else on this esteemed platform is experiencing issues with Safari or iOS, please let me know so we can address this together. Your is much appreciated!

I also have the issue with iOS. Unable to open it on Safari and chrome as well.

Happy Sunday, I have done some technical analysis on BETA GLASS and I believe that the stock price can rally to as high as 105. Below is my analysis. Does anyone have any criticisms