NewStats: 3,261,251 , 8,173,517 topics. Date: Wednesday, 28 May 2025 at 04:51 PM 1r6c52

Can Dangote Sugar Refinery Navigate it’s way back to profitability in 2025?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wIsaR584P2I?si=5Tcs_2ZgmPWnbnPo
Nairametrics • Dec 23 2024

I was asking for metrics to track the success of economic policies, some of which I actually endorse (at least in principle, even though the execution has been lacking). Those policies have a direct impact on market performance. How is that politics? And who is this "you people" you are referring to?

Tell us how you know the policies are on the right track. Inflation and debt are rising (austerity typically reduces both). Long-term strategic investors, and Nigeria's young elite, are fleeing. The naira is still unstable. Views on corruption haven't changed. The disastrous suppression of the new Dangote Refinery was a body blow to sagging business confidence. What economic success metrics are you looking at?

Olaide1295:

You people bring politics into economic conversations and will complain when the argument doesn’t go in your favor. You can say politics and economy are related, but where is the line? Some people like me believe this President is on the right track and have evidences to back it up. But if we start having the political back-forth on this thread, won't it derail the conversation?

NettyNelly:


Pa Emma, can you share your understanding of their business model and how they make money.
From the Little I found out, it seems they charge airlines (on contract basis), and clearing agents on a regulated tariff, but I don't have a full picture of how that works.

1. Is their earnings dollar indexed?
2. What are the possible risks that would impact the company's earnings?

I would appreciate your insights on this, Sir.

emmanuelewumi

NettyNelly:

emmanuelewumi

Please invest in what you understand or know the story behind them.

Get in touch with your financial advisor or use the internet to get the information you need.

Thank you

Sunrisepebble:
Yes, my new MH stock but MH with good intentions

What I am seeing in Vitafoam is the same as Beta Glass. Just that Beta Glass would materialize faster, with a 60% upside or more from here.

Beta Glass PAT ranged from 4bn - 6bn in the last 5 years, with no substantial earning growth.
But they have already earned 8.3bn in 9m 2024, with an FY annualized earnings of 11bn in View. But the stock is still trading at the 2019- 2023 price range.
They have a new Management team installed this year; a New COO ed in Q1, a New CFO in mid-year, and a new CEO in Oct.

If you look at the parent Company Frigoglass, they are making efforts to increase their export Market, that's inline with these new appointments.

emmanuelewumi:



Please invest in what you understand or know the story behind them.

Get in touch with your financial advisor or use the internet to get the information you need.

Thank you

That's the most important thing, my Boss. I'm not new here, but I have been a silent observer for some years now. I have learnt a great deal about NGX from what you and other great minds have shared here from your selflessness, so I place a on your Insights.

I spend most of my time reading books (Currently reading Chris Meyer's "Invest like a Deal Maker" you recommended and have read some other of his books before) and then use this platform as Nigeria's Value Investors Club, lol.

PS: If you have time, look at this book by Pulak Prasad "What I learnt about Investing from Darwin", he's a great writer and shares some of your Investment philosophies.

I don’t like going into illiquid stocks, with my philosophy of going in big into something I believe in i’d always like to have the availability to cash out when I want

NettyNelly:

What I am seeing in Vitafoam is the same as Beta Glass. Just that Beta Glass would materialize faster, with a 60% upside or more from here.

Beta Glass PAT ranged from 4bn - 6bn in the last 5 years, with no substantial earning growth.
But they have already earned 8.3bn in 9m 2024, with an FY annualized earnings of 11bn in View. But the stock is still trading at the 2019- 2023 price range.
They have a new Management team installed this year; a New COO ed in Q1, a New CFO in mid-year, and a new CEO in Oct.

If you look at the parent Company Frigoglass, they are making efforts to increase their export Market, that's inline with these new appointments.

megawealth01:
Tony Elumelu all white party with Davido, Wizkid and others last night voom UBA got positive today but the other guy own no even move Oando up. God dey sha

interesting

Bovis:


Tell us what the government should do differently? After all the years of subsidies didn’t translate to nationwide developments but huge debts and massive corruption

Venezuela and Norway are classic examples of two rich resource countries that you should go and research before you condemn the current government policies

Tax Reforms are desperately needed because there’s no ‘Representation without Taxation’. I wonder why previous istrations didn’t implement this policy especially our PHD holder Goodluck Jonathan that squandered the funds in the excess crude and many other opportunities

I am a fan of BAT...
But he was in haste with his reforms....
At least 2 refineries and Dangote Refinery need to start...
operation before even looking at subsidy removal...
That's one of the conditions in the KPMG report before inauguration....
Both removal of subsidy and floating of exchange rate pushed more people into poverty...
that's roughly 129m Nigerians....under poverty line.....
...that less than N3500/day to survive....
How far an tax reforms go....with hunger & starvation emerging...
We are broke according to BAT and yet we have a bloated ....
Big boyz are feeding fat while the masses should endure the pains....
Maybe BAT need to look at the Argentine President who achieved the impossible...

*Inflation plummeted to 2% monthly....
*Poverty declined from 57% to 46%....
*Argentina achieved its first fiscal surplus in 123 years....
*Cut govt ministries from 18 to 8...

megawealth01:
Tony Elumelu all white party with Davido, Wizkid and others last night voom UBA got positive today but the other guy own no even move Oando up. God dey sha

But wetin come be the correlation between party and price for UBA?
You mean some people bought because of party?

p.s. I'm a shareholder so I'm not hating.. just curious

Merry Christmas everyone

mikeapollo:


I don't go for jobs that I am not prepared for! Only incompetent and clueless people do that.

What preparation do you require to seat at a complaint desk.

Willie2015:


I am a fan of BAT...
But he was in haste with his reforms....
At least 2 refineries and Dangote Refinery need to start...
operation before even looking at subsidy removal...
That's one of the conditions in the KPMG report before inauguration....
Both removal of subsidy and floating of exchange rate pushed more people into poverty...
that's roughly 129m Nigerians....under poverty line.....
...that less than N3500/day to survive....
How far an tax reforms go....with hunger & starvation emerging...
We are broke according to BAT and yet we have a bloated ....
Big boyz are feeding fat while the masses should endure the pains....
Maybe BAT need to look at the Argentine President who achieved the impossible...

*Inflation plummeted to 2% monthly....
*Poverty declined from 57% to 46%....
*Argentina achieved its first fiscal surplus in 123 years....
*Cut govt ministries from 18 to 8...

If BAT wait for conditions to be right, no reforms will be implemented. In Buhari's 8 years how many times did Dangote postpone launching of his refinery? A refinery that was supposed to start operating by the end of Buhari's first tenure?

BAT understands this terrain very well. Scatter everywhere first then we will arrange it back. People fail to realize that some cabals were benefiting from the status quo and will do everything for those conditions not to be met

Agbalowomeri:


If BAT wait for conditions to be right, no reforms will be implemented. In Buhari's 8 years how many times did Dangote postpone launching of his refinery? A refinery that was supposed to start operating by the end of Buhari's first tenure?

BAT understands this terrain very well. Scatter everywhere first then we will arrange it back. People fail to realize that some cabals were benefiting from the status quo and will do everything for those conditions not to be met

There's only one way to remove fuel subsidy in Nigeria and PBAT did just that. Gradual or incremental removal has never worked and will never work for us as a "chosen" people 🤣

Agbalowomeri:


If BAT wait for conditions to be right, no reforms will be implemented. In Buhari's 8 years how many times did Dangote postpone launching of his refinery? A refinery that was supposed to start operating by the end of Buhari's first tenure?

BAT understands this terrain very well. Scatter everywhere first then we will arrange it back. People fail to realize that some cabals were benefiting from the status quo and will do everything for those conditions not to be met

Getting 4 refineries to work in a year ...
is not a rocket science... Bros
D political will is just lacking...
U dont kill your citizens with hunger and starvation...
in the name of scattering everywhere....
BAT is not ready to face the cabals...
but willing to trade the masses for the pain of reforms...

This place is looking like Nairaland politics section.

designking:
This place is looking like Nairaland politics section.

That's what some people have "prepared" to turn it into.

designking:
This place is looking like Nairaland politics section.

Not bad on weekends and public holidays provided it is related to the economy, investment, business and finance

Nigeria’s inflation rate rises to 34.6% in November 2024, highest in 28 years

https://nairametrics.com/2024/12/16/nigerias-inflation-rate-rises-to-34-6-in-november-2024-highest-in-28-years/


All these 5% dividend yield stocks nawaaaa.

Willie2015:


Getting 4 refineries to work in a year ...
is not a rocket science... Bros
D political will is just lacking...
U dont kill your citizens with hunger and starvation...
in the name of scattering everywhere....
BAT is not ready to face the cabals...
but willing to trade the masses for the pain of reforms...

Fuel will never be cheaper without subsidy even if all our refineries are working. PBAT did well by removing the subsidy and floating the naira.

Willie2015:


Getting 4 refineries to work in a year ...
is not a rocket science... Bros
D political will is just lacking...
U dont kill your citizens with hunger and starvation...
in the name of scattering everywhere....
BAT is not ready to face the cabals...
but willing to trade the masses for the pain of reforms...

Nah getting 4 refineries to work in a year is rocket science especially if you are replacing old parts not just doing turn around maintenance. It would have been foolish for Tinubu to keep waiting on the refineries while the country continued to bleed via ways and means debt and other debts.

HesInMe:
I was asking for metrics to track the success of economic policies, some of which I actually endorse (at least in principle, even though the execution has been lacking). Those policies have a direct impact on market performance. How is that politics? And who is this "you people" you are referring to?

Tell us how you know the policies are on the right track. Inflation and debt are rising (austerity typically reduces both). Long-term strategic investors, and Nigeria's young elite, are fleeing. The naira is still unstable. Views on corruption haven't changed. The disastrous suppression of the new Dangote Refinery was a body blow to sagging business confidence. What economic success metrics are you looking at?

What is this disastrous suppression to the new Dangote refinery you are talking about?

pluto09:


Fuel will never be cheaper without subsidy even if all our refineries are working. PBAT did well by removing the subsidy and floating the naira.

True talk. There won't be any gain if the two were not done at the same time and it takes a bold, brave person to do it.

It's like pressing a RESET button on everything. I believe from here, it can only get better and better until we get there.

I agree it is difficult to see it this way because we are blinded by several things.

I pray he continues in 2027 and someone who will build on it should come in 2031 and not someone who will reverse them for popularity. Everyone know that it will take at least 10 years of consistent efforts to build a new country. Nigeria will be better and a different country by then.

Agriculture & Livestock, we grow what we eat and export, Oil and Gas investments, solid banks, students' loan, security. infrastructure, coastal road, Lagos Sokoto highway, viable cities, FDIs, low inflation, solid national reserve, reduced debts, health care, we produce our drugs, strong capital market etc.

I gather these few things in the presidential chat , I am afraid that many intelligent persons like Rufai Oseni could not even hear or see these in the chat.

I come in peace and I rest my case.

I don't like T pain and will not vote him
Peter won't have done this three things because of the pressure and his too softness. He would have reduced the cost of governance and reduced corruption .
I T pain on this areas
1 floating of naira
2 Removing of subsidy
3.Tax Reforms

He was wicked to have not allowed Gej do them long ago just to collect power from pdp.This was one of gej weakness as leader.He should have stood his ground on this policies.And shouldn't have allowed apc take away Presidency. I don't like weakness in men as street .He said his ambition does not worth the lives of nigeria. Then the stupid decision instead has seen more Nigerians die since apc took over as a result of insecurity all over the country

Olaide1295:

You people bring politics into economic conversations and will complain when the argument doesn’t go in your favor. You can say politics and economy are related, but where is the line? Some people like me believe this President is on the right track and have evidences to back it up. But if we start having the political back-forth on this thread, won't it derail the conversation?

HesInMe:
C'mon. If you believe the current policies are the right ones, you have to be able to tell us: 1) when they will work, 2) how they will work, and 3) how we will know that they're working, i.e., what objective evidence we should look out for to track progress.

Just saying trust Tinubu, or blaming the other guy, or trying to whip up ethnic division is so unsatisfactory when there is grinding hunger across the land. Defend the policies on the substance.

You should stop complaining and make do with whatever your leaders provide. Learn to take advantage of the situation, as every challenge presents an opportunity. For example, in a water-flooded area, it's better to be the person who owns a fleet of canoes than the one stuck with a Mercedes 190. Everything else is just talk. Leaders come and go—T-Pain will rule and leave, and we don’t even know if the next president will reinstate all the subsidies.

In Nigeria, every leader does what they believe is politically right. There is no continuity, only corruption and looting. So, all these arguments are pointless because time moves on, and tomorrow will bring a new set of challenges.

emmanuelewumi:



Sir kindly add to the review of Vitafoam please. What’s the growth trajectory of the company now? Is it suitable for long term or short term
Investment?

🙏🏻



Not bad on weekends and public holidays provided it is related to the economy, investment, business and finance

ositadima1:




You should stop complaining and make do with whatever your leaders provide. Learn to take advantage of the situation, as every challenge presents an opportunity. For example, in a water-flooded area, it's better to be the person who owns a fleet of canoes than the one stuck with a Mercedes 190. Everything else is just talk. Leaders come and go—T-Pain will rule and leave, and we don’t even know if the next president will reinstate all the subsidies.

In Nigeria, every leader does what they believe is politically right. There is no continuity, only corruption and looting. So, all these arguments are pointless because time moves on, and tomorrow will bring a new set of challenges.

Lol.Any future president that brings back subsidy on fuel or dollars na to enter street for him.He could introduce corrupt free subsidy in agriculture,education and health.

[quote author=brodalikeme post=133439183][/quote]Go dig up current price call on vita foam many moon ago which oga Emma ed then.

Willie2015:

Maybe BAT need to look at the Argentine President who achieved the impossible...

*Inflation plummeted to 2% monthly....
*Poverty declined from 57% to 46%....
*Argentina achieved its first fiscal surplus in 123 years....
*Cut govt ministries from 18 to 8...

See what I'm talking about? Hard metrics of progress. In Nigeria, we're just running into our tribal corners as if dem curse us.

ositadima1:

You should stop complaining and make do with whatever your leaders provide. Learn to take advantage of the situation, as every challenge presents an opportunity.

But how will I, investor that I am, know whether to invest in, say, 10-year FGN bonds offering juicy 25+% yields? Are the reforms working? Will they lead to massive social backlash, instability, default, and a loss of my investment?

Agbalowomeri:


If BAT wait for conditions to be right, no reforms will be implemented. In Buhari's 8 years how many times did Dangote postpone launching of his refinery? A refinery that was supposed to start operating by the end of Buhari's first tenure?

BAT understands this terrain very well. Scatter everywhere first then we will arrange it back. People fail to realize that some cabals were benefiting from the status quo and will do everything for those conditions not to be met

This is a flawed argument and reasoning. It’s a known fact Nigeria doesn’t consume 60/70 million barrels of oil daily.
How about cleaning up the system, taking on the cabal and overhaul of Nigerian governance system. BAT is a crook and lacks the political will to take on the rent seekers because BAT is a product of a flawed Nigerian system.
If Nigeria electoral system reflected the will of the people, BAT won’t have acted with impunity.
A man whom goves the National Assembly almost NGN500 billion in his first year in office but telling citizens to endure while the political class fed fat and getter fatter.
Do you know what it means to drag 123million citizens into multidimensional poverty, I guess you don’t!

GeneralDae:

Nah getting 4 refineries to work in a year is rocket science especially if you are replacing old parts not just doing turn around maintenance. It would have been foolish for Tinubu to keep waiting on the refineries while the country continued to bleed via ways and means debt and other debts.

Bleed via debt...
U mean debt collected to feed their cronies...
Where do we start from ?
Budgeting N=5.2b for Ajaokuta that has never produced a single steel in the history of mankind.
or loot of N2.24 trillion inserted in the budget for Constituency projects....
or padded budget scandal...or N500 billion lunch money palliatives for Honourable ..
Or the bloated size of PBAT istration, or the extravagant lifestyle of leaders...
Getting refineries working is a function of political will
Not the absence of willing investors that can work in partnership with the FG..