NewStats: 3,259,774 , 8,170,890 topics. Date: Monday, 26 May 2025 at 12:30 AM 5a4621

HesInMe:
Basic ing should suggest that the repayment of a debt that is already on the books should have no impact on shareholders' equity -- unless there are gains (or reversal of write-offs) arising from the repayment. That's unlikely, since the debtor in this case, Whitmore Asset Management, is owned by Tinubu and Co. That's how riddled with ethical issues this "deal" is.

The message is the debt is written off and currently not in balance sheet assets. That looks clear. But the debtor holds so much Oando shares that can now be distributed to other shareholders except the debtor finds money to pay back to secure some or all the debtors Oando Plc shares from being distributed to every other shareholder.

The AGM letter get as it is worded However my take is, it indicates a form of write-back is coming to shareholders in either cash payment and or share distribution from a delinquent debtor.

BabsO2:


What if the delinquent debtor changes mind and not want to part with any Oando PLC shares or the whole lot of shares and say this one wey you hold be for shirt through AGM I go pay back small small or in full. That means no more shares will be distributed but cash will be the way out (if debt paid back in full) or part shares part cash (if debt paid back in part). And the post AGM letter suggest either can happen. Any way it goes the money written off from books will come back to the shareholder funds. Do you know if the written off amount is big enough to turn shareholder funds positive if written back ?

You made good points
But in that case, then there should be a publication saying that the debtor has changed his mind and now willing to pay cash instead.
What we were told in clear language is that management directors have reached and approved a firm agreement with the debtor to settle the debts with its shares. Any cash elementz complicate matterz because there was no specific value placed and agreed for each share at the AGM.

How long do you think it will take to get an agreement on the price per share to pay? Will that require a meeting of the shareholders? You realize that they have to then disclose how much per share the debtor is paying. Will the shareholders now be given chance to accept or reject that price? How much istrative costs should be deducted? Where will the money come from? Who owns the shares after cash payment?

You see, all these questions, in my opinion, make the cash payment impractical.

HesInMe:
Huh? The cash is $325 million, whether the share price is N10 or N10,000.

Dis kain one chance. I'll take the cash any day.

mikeapollo:


I just hope Oando will just stick to the share redistribution and ignore the cash payment option. Because the management or interested parties could use their influence (assuming) to get some market players to deliberately push the price lower e.g. N50 and pay cash to shareholders at that value, and then they mop up all the shares in the market again
Where would Oando get about N300b to pay sef?

mikeapollo:

You made good points
But in that case, then there should be a publication saying that the debtor has changed his mind and now willing to pay cash instead.
What we were told in clear language is that management directors have reached and approved a firm agreement with the debtor to settle the debts with its shares. Any cash elementz complicate matterz because there was no specific value placed and agreed for each share at the AGM.

It's how cash is coming into the picture that was making me think of scenarios. If there is a firm agreement for disposal. Then cash may come in from any fat cat that wants to repay a chunk of the outstanding debt for a chunk of the shares. Then some cash can be distributed to shareholders (and perhaps some to SHF) and the remaining chunk of shares not taken by fat cats distributed.

Streetinvestor2:
Abeg anyone with information on wapco agm.
People with yeye multiple handles will just occupy pages of this thread with only oando matter. Abeg nobi only oando dey nse.

I don tire Walahi

Are we talking about the same thing? Cash is cash. No long story about repaying a debt owed to Oando in cash. It's the repayment by share distribution that is complicated.

Raider76:


You see, all these questions, in my opinion, make the cash payment impractical.

Did you read the post? In my opinion, it is the redistribution to shareholders by cash and not by shares that is complicated. Anyway, let's see what the Board of Oando does. But I will be surprised if they opt to pay cash.

HesInMe:
Are we talking about the same thing? Cash is cash. No long story about repaying a debt owed to Oando in cash. It's the repayment by share distribution that is complicated.

Sunrisepebble:
Nahco went on full bid today. My #1 source has been marketing it to me now for months and I’m still yet to buy. They did a facts behind the figures this week and they’re projecting 71bn revenue next year and 300bn (seems unrealistic tho) in 5 years

The revenue is 300bn in 10 years and not 5 years.
Let's do a little calculation.
Current share outstanding is 1.95b, market cap is 82b at current price of 41.95 naira.
9m revenue is 34b, so we can safely assume FY 2024 revenue will be 45b.
9m net income is 9.2b which is 27% net margin.
Last 10 years revenue cagr is 18%, which means if we are to use a safe next 11 years revenue cagr of 15% from 45b 2024 FY revenue to 2034 = 209b compared to their own forecasted 300b (which is at 21% annual growth).
So, i will prefer using our conservative 2034 FY 209b for calculation rather than their own 300b 2034 FY forecast.
If the revenue for 2034 FY is 209b, then using a conservative net margin of 25%, net revenue will be 52b.
Forecasted 2034 EPS = net income / out. shares = #27
The last 5 years average mean P/E is 8.3, using that for our calculation for 2034,
Forecasted Price of Nahco in 2034 will be #224/share compared to the current #42/share and all these is aside the dividends received if we are to use the conservative revenue of 209b for 20234 instead of the company forecasted 300b revenue.
Then we need to calculate for the NPV of the money invested - if we are to invest 1m now in nahco 2024, how much would it return in 2034? is it better off investing that money in nahco? or we will get a better return using the same 1m in buying a land at ijebu-ode now to sell 2034? considering devaluations and inflations.
Time value of money.

HesInMe:
Are we talking about the same thing? Cash is cash. No long story about repaying a debt owed to Oando in cash. It's the repayment by share distribution that is complicated.

Cash payment at what value per share?

Sunrisepebble:
So you are making Oyel money and you say make I no find my own

Bro, mad money dey there oh, more like “blood money” when you see those expatriates pay.
I saw how attractive that money was when kidnappers broke into the power plant occupied by Daewoo experts and kidnapped.
SPDC had to shut down the project and evacuated the entire project sites.
One month after, every expatriate returned except one. The money big the fear for their lives.

Xidget:
Like play, like play 2024 has finished and no news about DangRice.

They never start operations joor?

Panadee:


Confirmed. N86 per unit. No WHT

💯

GeeKudi:
A vivid illustration of being tossed about by the wind and I don’t think any serious minded person should take any of your claims seriously.

Thank you very much for this analysis

emmaodet:

The revenue is 300bn in 10 years and not 5 years.
Let's do a little calculation.
Current share outstanding is 1.95b, market cap is 82b at current price of 41.95 naira.
9m revenue is 34b, so we can safely assume FY 2024 revenue will be 45b.
9m net income is 9.2b which is 27% net margin.
Last 10 years revenue cagr is 18%, which means if we are to use a safe next 11 years revenue cagr of 15% from 45b 2024 FY revenue to 2034 = 209b compared to their own forecasted 300b (which is at 21% annual growth).
So, i will prefer using our conservative 2034 FY 209b for calculation rather than their own 300b 2034 FY forecast.
If the revenue for 2034 FY is 209b, then using a conservative net margin of 25%, net revenue will be 52b.
Forecasted 2034 EPS = net income / out. shares = #27
The last 5 years average mean P/E is 8.3, using that for our calculation for 2034,
Forecasted Price of Nahco in 2034 will be #224/share compared to the current #42/share and all these is aside the dividends received if we are to use the conservative revenue of 209b for 20234 instead of the company forecasted 300b revenue.
Then we need to calculate for the NPV of the money invested - if we are to invest 1m now in nahco 2024, how much would it return in 2034? is it better off investing that money in nahco? or we will get a better return using the same 1m in buying a land at ijebu-ode now to sell 2034? considering devaluations and inflations.
Time value of money.

emmaodet:

The revenue is 300bn in 10 years and not 5 years.
Let's do a little calculation.
Current share outstanding is 1.95b, market cap is 82b at current price of 41.95 naira.
9m revenue is 34b, so we can safely assume FY 2024 revenue will be 45b.
9m net income is 9.2b which is 27% net margin.
Last 10 years revenue cagr is 18%, which means if we are to use a safe next 11 years revenue cagr of 15% from 45b 2024 FY revenue to 2034 = 209b compared to their own forecasted 300b (which is at 21% annual growth).
So, i will prefer using our conservative 2034 FY 209b for calculation rather than their own 300b 2034 FY forecast.
If the revenue for 2034 FY is 209b, then using a conservative net margin of 25%, net revenue will be 52b.
Forecasted 2034 EPS = net income / out. shares = #27
The last 5 years average mean P/E is 8.3, using that for our calculation for 2034,
Forecasted Price of Nahco in 2034 will be #224/share compared to the current #42/share and all these is aside the dividends received if we are to use the conservative revenue of 209b for 20234 instead of the company forecasted 300b revenue.
Then we need to calculate for the NPV of the money invested - if we are to invest 1m now in nahco 2024, how much would it return in 2034? is it better off investing that money in nahco? or we will get a better return using the same 1m in buying a land at ijebu-ode now to sell 2034? considering devaluations and inflations.
Time value of money.

I think revenue of N300 billion is achievable in 2029.

They should have a return on invested capital of 70% in 2024

I was right, it’s actually 300bn in 5 years

emmaodet:

The revenue is 300bn in 10 years and not 5 years.
Let's do a little calculation.
Current share outstanding is 1.95b, market cap is 82b at current price of 41.95 naira.
9m revenue is 34b, so we can safely assume FY 2024 revenue will be 45b.
9m net income is 9.2b which is 27% net margin.
Last 10 years revenue cagr is 18%, which means if we are to use a safe next 11 years revenue cagr of 15% from 45b 2024 FY revenue to 2034 = 209b compared to their own forecasted 300b (which is at 21% annual growth).
So, i will prefer using our conservative 2034 FY 209b for calculation rather than their own 300b 2034 FY forecast.
If the revenue for 2034 FY is 209b, then using a conservative net margin of 25%, net revenue will be 52b.
Forecasted 2034 EPS = net income / out. shares = #27
The last 5 years average mean P/E is 8.3, using that for our calculation for 2034,
Forecasted Price of Nahco in 2034 will be #224/share compared to the current #42/share and all these is aside the dividends received if we are to use the conservative revenue of 209b for 20234 instead of the company forecasted 300b revenue.
Then we need to calculate for the NPV of the money invested - if we are to invest 1m now in nahco 2024, how much would it return in 2034? is it better off investing that money in nahco? or we will get a better return using the same 1m in buying a land at ijebu-ode now to sell 2034? considering devaluations and inflations.
Time value of money.

Sunrisepebble:
I was right, it’s actually 300bn in 5 years

Dividend grew from 20k in 2020 to N2.56k in 2024.

Stock price moved from N2.50k in 2020 to N39 in 2024.

Based on 2024 Q3 report should be able to pay dividend of N5.00 from EPS of N7.50k in the current year

Pa Emma, welcome back.
Yes, I’ll look into the stock. It all seems good to me from his explanation also. Heard that their contracts are most likely invoiced in USD but paid in Naira

emmanuelewumi:



Dividend grew from 20k in 2020 to N2.56k in 2024.

Stock price moved from N2.50k in 2020 to N39 in 2024.

Based on 2024 Q3 report should be able to pay dividend of N5.00 from EPS of N7.50k in the current year

anyone know why nascon chart on TV is stalled since nov24th?

Sunrisepebble:
Pa Emma, welcome back.
Yes, I’ll look into the stock. It all seems good to me from his explanation also. Heard that their contracts are most likely invoiced in USD but paid in Naira

Exactly, it is a stock that can be used to hedge currency devaluation.

The company underperformed for many years when it was managed by Nigerian CEOs, they currently have an Indian CEO who ed the company about 5 years ago

No dulling guys!! target sured..
https://ewnation.com/afriprud-on-path-of-little-resistance/

Sunrisepebble:
I was right, it’s actually 300bn in 5 years

Haaaaa..........Just 5 years? that means a cagr of 45% of revenue going forward compared to 18% in previous years. How feasible is this?
then by recalculating, forecasted eps = 38.5 with a net margin of 25%, nahco price by then should be = #319 using average P/E of = 8.3.
Well, will be monitoring their quarterly report. To meet this target, a quarter report revenue should always be rising by 11%.
We will see.

emmanuelewumi:




I think revenue of N300 billion is achievable in 2029.

They should have a return on invested capital of 70% in 2024

A ROIC of 70% will be very very impressive. That means they can easily pay-off their wacc of between 20-30% and still have enough as retained earnings to grow the company organically without raising more debts or diluting the shares more.

Sunrisepebble:
Nahco went on full bid today. My #1 source has been marketing it to me now for months and I’m still yet to buy. They did a facts behind the figures this week and they’re projecting 71bn revenue next year and 300bn (seems unrealistic tho) in 5 years

They are a great company to have in your portfolio. The chairman hinted about their divestment plans to bring more value to shareholders during the last agm. Based on that they may not increase dividends at the same rate they have done over the last 2yrs or more. Their numbers have definitely been looking good and 300bn revenue might be an overkill but they're definitely doing something right in that business. Just my own observation

emmanuelewumi:



Dividend grew from 20k in 2020 to N2.56k in 2024.

Stock price moved from N2.50k in 2020 to N39 in 2024.

Based on 2024 Q3 report should be able to pay dividend of N5.00 from EPS of N7.50k in the current year

I recall buying NAHCO N9.00 after you and @currentprice’s analysis drew my attention.
I was more than impressed after doing my DD.
Well done Pa Emma.

emmaodet:


Haaaaa..........Just 5 years? that means a cagr of 45% of revenue going forward compared to 18% in previous years. How feasible is this?
then by recalculating, forecasted eps = 38.5 with a net margin of 25%, nahco price by then should be = #319 using average P/E of = 8.3.
Well, will be monitoring their quarterly report. To meet this target, a quarter report revenue should always be rising by 11%.
We will see.

Considering the earning growth rate at over 20% and the spread between the return on invested capital and average yield on a 10 year FGN bond the justified PE should be 12 and above

Raider76:

In my opinion, it is the redistribution to shareholders by cash and not by shares that is complicated.

mikeapollo:

Cash payment at what value per share?

Ah, now I think I understand what you guys are talking about. I'm talking about the proposal to allow Tinubu's side gig repay their debt to Oando by shares, rather than with stone-cold cash. It's daylight robbery; cash is king.

You guys seem to be talking about how shareholders should benefit from the repayment, assuming side gig does repay with shares.

HesInMe:




Ah, now I think I understand what you guys are talking about. I'm talking about the proposal to allow Tinubu's side gig repay their debt to Oando by shares, rather than with stone-cold cash. It's daylight robbery; cash is king.

You guys seem to be talking about how shareholders should benefit from the repayment, assuming side gig does repay with shares.

Yes now.
We are shareholders, so what would be of utmost benefit to us is what we are suggesting.

emmanuelewumi:



Considering the earning growth rate at over 20% and the spread between the return on invested capital and average yield on a 10 year FGN bond the justified PE should be 12 and above

Yes, i know the PE will be higher than the 8.3 i used but just want to be conservative and not raise my hope too high. Using a PE of 12 will give a price of #461/share
Which means a 5m invested now in nahco may turn 50m plus in 5 years time compared to a total return of 10m in bond (mutual funds, FG bonds or TB on average)......we will see and keep monitoring the financial reports.
Moreover thanks for the call on wapco, you identifying it made me to buy and i have gotten over 100% return on my investment.
Reading Peter Lynch book made me to start increasing my stakes more in stocks than bonds. The return is always better.

emmaodet:


Yes, i know the PE will be higher than the 8.3 i used but just want to be conservative and not raise my hope too high. Using a PE of 12 will give a price of #461/share
Which means a 5m invested now in nahco may turn 50m plus in 5 years time compared to a total return of 10m in bond (mutual funds, FG bonds or TB on average)......we will see and keep monitoring the financial reports.
Moreover thanks for the call on wapco, you identifying it made me to buy and i have gotten over 100% return on my investment.
Reading Peter Lynch book made me to start increasing my stakes more in stocks than bonds. The return is always better.

N5 million invested in 2020 at N2. 50k plus the bonus share of 1 for 5 in 2021 increased the shares bought from 2 million to 2.4 million, got a dividend of about N5.5 million this year and the investment is currently valued at N96 million

emmanuelewumi:



Considering the earning growth rate at over 20% and the spread between the return on invested capital and average yield on a 10 year FGN bond the justified PE should be 12 and above

Seasons greeting Oga Emma.

Please which stockbroker are you using?