NewStats: 3,263,582 , 8,180,600 topics. Date: Friday, 06 June 2025 at 03:20 PM 3m6b44

For me, Bola Tinubu is not in the race. He will struggle for third position with Engineer Rabiu Musa Kwankwanso and here are m reasons based on INEC historical data:

1. No presidential candidate has ever won the South since the fourth republic without Igbo and Edo backing.

2. No presidential candidate has ever won an election without winning their zones (in this case, North and South). Tinubu doesn't stand any chance to win Southern votes. He will likely come second behind Peter Obi.

For example, OBJ who is from the SW won the South, Yar'Adua from NW won the North in 2007, Jonathan from SS won the South while Buhari from NW won the North.

3. No leading Southern candidate has ever won a leading Northern candidate in the North since the fourth republic and no leading northern candidate has ever won a leading southern candidate in the south since the 4th republic.

By implication, Tinubu can never win Atiku in the whole North and Atiku can never win Peter Obi and Tinubu in the South. Since, Tinubu will likely lose the South to Peter Obi and the North to Atiku, he doesn't stand a chance to win the election.

4. Igbos have more ed voters than Yorubas. Here is the reason:

SW has 18 million voters

Lagos has 7 million voters

SE has 11 million voters

When you remove Lagos voters from SW total voters, you'll have 11 million voters each for SW and SE.

When you add the Igbos living in Lagos, Kano, Kaduna, Abuja, Katsina, Delta, Akwa Ibom, Delta, Cross Rivers, Benue, Bayelsa, Rivers State, Plateau, Niger, Sokoto and Ibadan and other parts of Nigeria, you'll understand that there are likely to be more Igbo voters than Yorubas.

5. Anambra bloc votes alone can neutralize the SW win margin

For example:

In 2015, Tinubu and Osinbanjo won the whole SW for Buhari with 500k votes

In 2015, Peter Obi's APGA (which adopted GEJ as its consensus candidate) won Anambra for GEJ with 620k votes.

By implication, if the 2015 election has happened in only Anambra, Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Ekiti, Ondo, and Osun, GEJ would have won Buhari with 120k votes despite Buhari winning in 5/7 of the states.

In 2019, Tinubu ad Osinbanjo won the whole SW for Buhari with 260k votes

In 2019, Peter Obi won Anambra for Atiku with 491k votes

By implication, Anambra bloc votes neutralized SW votes with over 280k votes, meaning Atiku won have won the election with that margin if the election had held in only Anambra, Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Ekiti, Ondo, and Osun, even though Buhari won more states than Atiku.

Based on this data, there is no way Tinubu can win the 2023 election.

FACT

VoteObi2023:


Based on this data, there is no way Tinubu can win the 2023 election.

FACT

Brillant!! Atiku would win north while Obi would win South. The only hope for Obi is if Tinubu is disqualified and Kwankwaso shared northern votes with Atiku. If Kwankwaso withdraws from race even with Tinubu on the race, Atiku wins.

All Christians resident in the North who are from the North have opted for Peter Obi.
Pay a visit to the major Churches in the North like COCIN, EYN, HEKAN, ECWA, Lutheran, Catholic, The Brethren etc and all Pentecostal churches. Its Peter Obi "the God sent man" they keep talking of.

I wonder what makes those few BAT urchins online and even in the South West think Tinubu can win.
It obvious they don't travel around.

Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the incming president. The best man for the job. The game changer. The expected one. May God bless him with the wisdom to lead the country in the fear of God. I congratulate him in advance.

DaddyFreeze2020:
All Christians resident in the North who are from the North have opted for Peter Obi.
Pay a visit to the major Churches in the North like COCIN, EYN, HEKAN, ECWA, Lutheran, Catholic, The Brethren etc and all Pentecostal churches. Its Peter Obi "the God sent man" they keep talking of

You are right

I am so sure of Anglican and ECWA. If you meet any of the adherents in NW and ask them who they are ing, they'll always tell you "Feter Obi because of CAN" I am not sure CAN endorsed Peter Obi and I wonder who gave them that idea.

Some people did calculation like this before APC primary but it turns out to be the less competitive presidential primary I have witness.

I pray anyone that emerge among the contestants may it be a beneficial to me and my household. Amen

Stakeholders:
Some people did calculation like this before APC primary but it turns out to be the less competitive presidential primary I have witness.

I pray anyone that emerge among the contestants may it be a beneficial to me and my household. Amen

Baba non of them go beneficial at all.
Just hustle yourself man and hope on God. As bad as im bad we go dey alright

Thïefnubu Ūrchins would start wailing because of this article...

But they will continue to wail in vain...

Atiku Abubakar is the next President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria...

The General Elections results will shock them...

Even Buhari that is "Mr Shock" would be shocked when Atiku Abubakar is declared winner of the election.

Stakeholders:
Some people did calculation like this before APC primary but it turns out to be the less competitive presidential primary I have witness.

I pray anyone that emerge among the contestants may it be a beneficial to me and my household. Amen

Do you mean dollarized primary?

Beer parlour political analysis.

micellgevity:
Beer parlour political analysis.

What makes it beer parlor analysis?

1. Has any presidential candidate won Southern votes without Igbo ?

2. Has any candidate won the general election without winning their zone (North or South)

3. Has any leading Southern candidate defeat a leading Northern candidate in the North?

4. Are SW ed voters not 11 million when you remove Lagos voters?

5. Has Anambra not been cancelling out entire SW votes since the introduction of card readers?

Voter turnout is what counts. Notice the decline in the total number of voters in the South East and South-South between 2015 and 2019 and the increase in the North-East and North-West regions at the same time. The activities of IPOB was not as pronounced as it is today.

All these OBIdient slaves sef...na una go say this time around it's different na una go still dey quote statistics of old elections. Which one una dey? Make una stand one place and stop confusing a thunder named February.

Shhhhhhhh, stop telling everybody the secret, since you're very sure that Tinubu will lose then why are you so worried?
Just keep quite so that Tinubu will lose very well.

VoteObi2023:

What makes it beer parlor analysis?

1. Has any presidential candidate won Southern votes without Igbo ?

2. Has any candidate won the general election without winning their zone (North or South)

3. Has any leading Southern candidate defeat a leading Northern candidate in the North?

4. Are SW ed voters not 11 million when you remove Lagos voters?

5. Has Anambra not been cancelling out entire SW votes since the introduction of card readers?

1… buhari won twice without igbos .
Don’t forget he called u ordinary 5% n dot in d circle n still won


So rest on that

2…the only aspirant that it’s likely he won’t win his zone is peter obi cos I have never seen any big wig him aside inconsequential nincoompoop demarketing him by insulting everyone

Even his state governor is not ing him


3…..it’s like u were still in d womb when abiola defeated tofa in d north,many of u are still kids who know nothing about Nigeria,election n her history

What about when Jonathan emerged president,I guess northerners didn’t contest then?

4…….what’s d rationale behind removing lagos?
Is Lagos no longer part of south

5….sorry for wasting my time on u,u are nothing but a delusional boy to believe anambra will cancel south west vote even when only oyo n osun combined will cancel all what south east have to offer

BATified2023:
1… buhari won twice without igbos .
Don’t forget he called u ordinary 5% n dot in d circle n still won


So rest on that

2…the only aspirant that it’s likely he won’t win his zone is peter obi cos I have never seen any big wig him aside inconsequential nincoompoop demarketing him by insulting everyone

Even his state governor is not ing him


3…..it’s like u were still in d womb when abiola defeated tofa in d north,many of u are still kids who know nothing about Nigeria,election n her history

What about when Jonathan emerged president,I guess northerners didn’t contest then?

4…….what’s d rationale behind removing lagos?
Is Lagos no longer part of south

5….sorry for wasting my time on u,u are nothing but a delusional boy to believe anambra will cancel south west vote even when only oyo n osun combined will cancel all what south east have to offer

Problem with most of you is logical reasoning.. someone brings out fact and figure and you results in your normal name calling, it's statistically impossible for Tinubu to win except Kwankwoso or Atiku step down for him. You can do the maths yourself bro

Apophenia24k:



Problem with most of you is logical reasoning.. someone brings out fact and figure and you results in your normal name calling, it's statistically impossible for Tinubu to win except Kwankwoso or Atiku step down for him. You can do the maths yourself bro

I countered d so called facts n they were all fallacies

DaddyFreeze2020:
All Christians resident in the North who are from the North have opted for Peter Obi.
Pay a visit to the major Churches in the North like COCIN, EYN, HEKAN, ECWA, Lutheran, Catholic, The Brethren etc and all Pentecostal churches. Its Peter Obi "the God sent man" they keep talking of.

I wonder what makes those few BAT urchins online and even in the South West think Tinubu can win.
It obvious they don't travel around.

These urchins know that tinubu can not win. They are only fighting to finish.

I wish your analysis were so.

But sorry to it, Tinubu who is sick and uncordinated is currently leading.

joyandfaith:


Brillant!! Atiku would win north while Obi would win South. The only hope for Obi is if Tinubu is disqualified and Kwankwaso shared northern votes with Atiku. If Kwankwaso withdraws from race even with Tinubu on the race, Atiku wins.

The votes Kwankwaso & Tinubu will get in the north will be to Obi's advantage. If these 2 were not in the race, their votes would have gone to Atiku & it won't be in Obi's best interest.

All this Alaigbo and alimosho beer parlor political pollsters. You will just maneuver the variables and constant to your advantage, and the outcome will be your predetermined narrative.
None of you know what will happen. Wait till February 24th before making all these jingojastic calculations, because as they say an hour is like eternity in the political space-time quantum.

BATified2023:
1… buhari won twice without igbos .
Don’t forget he called u ordinary 5% n dot in d circle n still won


So rest on that

2…the only aspirant that it’s likely he won’t win his zone is peter obi cos I have never seen any big wig him aside inconsequential nincoompoop demarketing him by insulting everyone

Even his state governor is not ing him


3…..it’s like u were still in d womb when abiola defeated tofa in d north,many of u are still kids who know nothing about Nigeria,election n her history

What about when Jonathan emerged president,I guess northerners didn’t contest then?

4…….what’s d rationale behind removing lagos?
Is Lagos no longer part of south

5….sorry for wasting my time on u,u are nothing but a delusional boy to believe anambra will cancel south west vote even when only oyo n osun combined will cancel all what south east have to offer

Tinubu is not Abiola, and he doesn't have the military to rig for him like Babangida did for Abiola. You are also an indomie generation, don't claim what you're not. I lived a stone's throw from one of the polling centres during that election. And I can tell you for a fact, it was more corrupt than the election in 99. Abiola and Tofa's men were sharing money like if it was sand.

ganisucks:


Tinubu is not Abiola, and he doesn't have the military to rig for him like Babangida did for Abiola. You are also an indomie generation, don't claim what you're not. I lived a stone's throw from one of the polling centres during that election. And I can tell you for a fact, it was more corrupt than the election in 99. Abiola and Tofa's men were sharing money like if it was sand.

but abiola won tofa right?

BATified2023:
but abiola won tofa right?

He was allowed to rig Tofa. If he didn't win, they wouldn't have used saboteurs to convince him to arrange that ridiculous press conference. And so, wouldn't have had the opportunity to arrest and snuff him out. The end goal of the election was to get rid of him.

duro4chang:
Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the incming president. The best man for the job. The game changer. The expected one. May God bless him with the wisdom to lead the country in the fear of God. I congratulate him in advance.

This is one of the die-hard Tinubu ers who has refused to allow common sense prevail. He will keep saying Tinubu will win even after Peter Obi is announced winner

BATified2023:
I countered d so called facts n they were all fallacies

With what ?
The 5%ters or inconsequential nicoompoop.
Realize early that all regions are inconsequential unless it merged with other.
With almighty North Buhari was unable to win until he merged with ACN.

Vote4Obi:


This is one of the die-hard Tinubu ers who has refused to allow common sense prevail. He will keep saying Tinubu will win even after Peter Obi is announced winner

Where is this slowpoke coming from? You are so daft to use foul language on me. Your deranged obi is the one who does not have common sense. You 0bidi0ts are so gullible stupid and senseless. Must you kill yourself because of Tinubu? Go and swallow otapiapia now.Obi will never rule Nigeria. He is a loser

Make I go read your reasons fess

Tinubu was never in the race, he is just a place holder

If Peter Obi come second in the 2023 Presidential election make I die suddenly with my entire family. I am betting on second not even first so you know how he is Just a pretender.

Vote4Obi:


This is one of the die-hard Tinubu ers who has refused to allow common sense prevail. He will keep saying Tinubu will win even after Peter Obi is announced winner

There’s power in spoken words. Retract your comment dude and stop staking your life with something you’re not even sure of.

Superwave16320:
If Peter Obi come second in the 2023 Presidential election make I die suddenly with my entire family. I am betting on second not even first so you know how he is Just a pretender.