NewStats: 3,259,623 , 8,170,616 topics. Date: Sunday, 25 May 2025 at 05:41 PM 246j6c

skydiver01:
All valid points. That is what some investing is about - taking risks with the objective of making money. One concern I have is not bitc0in as an asset class but the vulnerability of bitc0in/crypt0 wallets to theft. Plus I still suspect most global central banks will not allow any crypt0 asset to be used as an alternative to their currencies as a means of payment. As such, I expect crypt0s will fade out in the coming years following more regulation. Right now and up till now its been a cowboys markets. India & China have banned crypt0s and I expect more large countries will follow. Nevertheless, I wish all investors great fortunes from whichever assets they to invest in.

First, if your concern is about theft, there are hardware wallets that are very safe. You can withdraw your bitc0in into them and only transfer out when you want to sell.

If bitc0in was going to fade out, it'd have done that in 2017 and not now. The understandable knee-jerk reaction for some central banks like ours have been to ban crypt0 and when they see how ineffective that is, they turn around and regulate. This is the case with India who have now legalised crypt0. Western nations have made it clear that they're interested in regulating the space. That has been a big win for crypt0 as due to the regulatory clarity, institutions have poured in billions into bitc0in.

You might not have been following the news, but adoption of crypt0 and blockchain over the past year has been staggering. Many US banks now offer crypt0 services to clients, Facebook (now Meta) is betting its future on blockchain and is testing a payment remittance service powered by crypt0. Twitter, PayPal, Visa, Mastercard e.t.c have all ventured massively into the space. A number of companies, investment funds and councils/local areas now own bitc0in as part of their balance sheet. The U.S. has been clear that they have no interest in banning bitc0in and even want to make some transactions tax free. The UK has been keen on generating revenue from the industry. Spanish banks have petitioned their central bank to provide clarity and allow them offer crypt0 services. There are loads more that I can’t even

One thing I've noticed is that people underestimate what bitc0in has achieved and it's corresponding potential.

To give a perspective, let's take away the controversial name 'bitc0in ' and replace it with asset A.
Asset A came into existence roughly a decade ago promising to revolutionise how value is transacted and held. Of course, many took it to be a joke initially. It has progressively exploded in adoption and within 10 yrs is now traded 24/7 in hundreds of countries around the globe. It has challenged the concept of fiat as we know it forcing central banks and governments worldwide to either try to replicate, adopt, regulate or control it. Right now, it has an ever increasing institutional backing with many looking at how to extend adoption.
I might not own such an asset but wouldn't be betting against it.

Bitc0in is not given enough credit for what it has achieved. In 12 years, it has grown from zero to a high of 1.3 trillion USD.....
Today at almost 800 billion USD, it sits at number 9 on the list of traded assets by market capitalisation. To put things in perspective, the traded market cap of all the companies listed on NSE was valued at about 50 billion USD as of the last time I checked. That was why when folks attributed a previous bitc0in dip to the CBN ban, I just smilled. The total naira in circulation is far less than the current mcap of bitc0in

I have learnt a lot from this forum over the past years.

On this thread, we talk about Government securities and how to grow our personal finances through them. I am shocked that no one is seeing or talking about the impending danger which is a risk of default by the Nigerian government.

At current rate, Nigeria needs to spend 1.78 trillion Naira yearly to service local debt and about $2billion yearly to service external debt.

With Debt at 98% of revenue, Nigeria will simply be unable to pay her debts after the current oil boom which is in 2-5 years from now.

Combine this with over 10 trillion loan which the CBN has given to the FG via ways & means and the situation is stark!. Why is an individual advised to buy 15/30 years Nigeria bond when we know quite well that Nigeria will either devalue significantly, face significant inflation or default on all its debts?

Olaide1295:
I have learnt a lot from this forum over the past years.

.....

Its been discussed at length before. Repaying domestic debts would not be an issue and foreign debts are still within sensible limits. OTOH, that over three-quarter of revenue generated is used in servicing debt is a comcern.

To put things in perspective, money supply (i.e new money) increased by over 13% last year. While this was not uncommon around the globe, what's rather unique is that our government has also shown that a significant proportion of this new money will be used to continue borrowing at high rates.

From economics, we know that in a population, the first recipients of new money benefit the most as they get and utilise their share before the resulting inflation eliminates the buying power of those down the line. So for an individual, the bond offering presents a safe and sensible investment. For the nation, whether that's the best way to spend is anyones guess

ojesymsym:
Using your graph, its seems it has a 4 year cycle. If that pattern is correct then there should be a pull back or loss in value this year. Right?

Yes it seems to have a 4 year cycle but if you watch well, you will see that the year before the pull back or correction, there was a big rise of over 1000%.
A better guage maybe comparing the value 2 years before the pull back and the pull back year. Even with that, you will see that you still have an increment of over 300%.

jedisco:


Its been discussed at length before. Repaying domestic debts would not be an issue and foreign debts are still within sensible limits. OTOH, that over three-quarter of revenue generated is used in servicing debt is a comcern.

To put things in perspective, money supply (i.e new money) increased by over 13% last year. While this was not uncommon around the globe, what's rather unique is that our government has also shown that a significant proportion of this new money will be used to continue borrowing at high rates.

From economics, we know that in a population, the first recipients of new money benefit the most as they get and utilise their share before the resulting inflation eliminates the buying power of those down the line. So for an individual, the bond offering presents a safe and sensible investment. For the nation, whether that's the best way to spend is anyones guess

Boss, why would repaying domestic debt not be an issue? Because the CBN can print new money to meet the obligations? Will this not continue to cause large inflations and devalue all Naira holdings in-turn causing serious pain to the masses.

Even for the bond holders who receive new money, only a percentage is given to them in returns/interests. The resulting devaluation will catch up with their capital and subsequent returns making it worth even less.

97% of revenue used in servicing debt is a huge problem. Our foreign debts servicing are just shy of limits now, borrow just a bit more and the alarm bells go off. It is self-deceit to not see the problem or think it won't come. Lebanon, Venezuela, Greece etc have been here before.

Seems to me like there is no easy way out. Any solutions?

Olaide1295:


Boss, why would repaying domestic debt not be an issue? Because the CBN can print new money to meet the obligations?

Seems to me like there is no easy way out. Any solutions?

Hehe.... You answered the question... What's more detrimental is that the new money is not being tied to capital expenditure or productivity rather, it's spent to keep borrowing rates high.

Of course, buying government debt of a weak currency can many times be detrimental unless macroeconomic measures have been put in place to reverse inflation. Foreign portfolio investors who rushed to buy CBNs TBs in 2014- 2016 cos of the 'juicy rates' we're burnt badly. Most were practically begging to leave with about half of their initial investment.

Regarding solutions, a number of things can be done
1. Government waste needs to be cut down significantly, this will allow the masses accept tightening measures down the line
2. Petrol subsidy removal/Dangote refinery- self explanatory
3. Borrowing rates should be cut down to help stem inflation. Bond rates shouldn't chase inflation.
4. New money should be tied to production
5. The tax base could still be improved in sensible ways....

Putting the numbers in perspective, I'd highlight some facts with the hope of putting the matter to bed.

1. The GDP growth has averaged about 4%
2. The annual population growth is 2.5% which eats up most of the GDP growth. Hence the effective growth is just over 1%

3. Over the last year, money supply increased by 13.8%. This is effectively new money pushed into the system.
4. Our revenue and effective GDP growth are less than 2%. This means that this new money is not backed by economic activity or demand.
5. Law of economics states that supply outstripping demand = inflation. Also in this case devaluation.

6. The nation last year spent about 76% of income servicing debts
7. Despite spending most of revenue servicing debts, the government has continued to borrow locally at exorbitant rates of about 13%.
8. As projected economic growth and revenue cannot keep up with the borrowing rates, the only way the government can keep up is by printing new money.

9. New money being streamlined into non-productive sectors will only make infllation worse

10. Lastly, excessive new money being printed takes us back to stage 3

Repeat stage 3 - 10 fast enough and you get a Venezuela. So far, the government has shown that it intends to keep borrowing rates high as inflation rises. This will only serve to fertilize the process above...


This is not me whining... I'm just stating facts. Some of these are why the naira has devalued by 300% to the usd over the past 7 years alone. As individual investors, we invest to beat inflation. When we're done, all we can hope for is that what's left of the nation will enable us spend our profits in peace.

I like your explanations. It's well detailed and nice too. But you are giving remadies to the wrong people. The people that can implement them are not on nairaland.

jedisco:


Hehe.... You answered the question... What's more detrimental is that the new money is not being tied to capital expenditure or productivity rather, it's spent to keep borrowing rates high.

Of course, buying government debt of a weak currency can many times be detrimental unless macroeconomic measures have been put in place to reverse inflation. Foreign portfolio investors who rushed to buy CBNs TBs in 2014- 2016 cos of the 'juicy rates' we're burnt badly. Most were practically begging to leave with about half of their initial investment.

Regarding solutions, a number of things can be done
1. Government waste needs to be cut down significantly, this will allow the masses accept tightening measures down the line
2. Petrol subsidy removal/Dangote refinery- self explanatory
3. Borrowing rates should be cut down to help stem inflation. Bond rates shouldn't chase inflation.
4. New money should be tied to production
5. The tax base could still be improved in sensible ways....

Rizin:
I like your explanations. It's well detailed and nice too. But you are giving remadies to the wrong people. The people that can implement them are not on nairaland.

Never say never. A number of times, things have been discussed here (e.g the CBN giving cheap forex to BDC operators) and soon after, its carried and popularised by mainstream media. This then forces the hand of the Government. Eitherway, as patriotic citizens, we should at least be vocal if we believe our Government has stepped out of line

jedisco:


First, if your concern is about theft, there are hardware wallets that are very safe. You can withdraw your bitc0in into them and only transfer out when you want to sell.

If bitc0in was going to fade out, it'd have done that in 2017 and not now. The understandable knee-jerk reaction for some central banks like ours have been to ban crypt0 and when they see how ineffective that is, they turn around and regulate. This is the case with India who have now legalised crypt0. Western nations have made it clear that they're interested in regulating the space. That has been a big win for crypt0 as due to the regulatory clarity, institutions have poured in billions into bitc0in.

You might not have been following the news, but adoption of crypt0 and blockchain over the past year has been staggering. Many US banks now offer crypt0 services to clients, Facebook (now Meta) is betting its future on blockchain and is testing a payment remittance service powered by crypt0. Twitter, PayPal, Visa, Mastercard e.t.c have all ventured massively into the space. A number of companies, investment funds and councils/local areas now own bitc0in as part of their balance sheet. The U.S. has been clear that they have no interest in banning bitc0in and even want to make some transactions tax free. The UK has been keen on generating revenue from the industry. Spanish banks have petitioned their central bank to provide clarity and allow them offer crypt0 services. There are loads more that I can’t even

Domestic debts are not much of a problem because ...

1. Nigerias revenue is mostly in $$$ from sale of natura resources.

2. D last devaluation eroded the value of every single Naira (both the Naira currently owed as well as future debts) effectively reducing both principal and interests by more than 30%.

3. In fact every time Naira devalues Nigeria becomes less indebted to its domestic lenders.

4. So, d 13% yield on d bonds are not really that much, and it is about equivalent to 9% yield before the last devaluation.

[quote author=AngelicBeing post=110011641][/quote]

It's not all party... with significant institutional presence and a mcap of 1 trillion usd, it'd take significantly more to move the market....
For example, a move from 55k to 110k would be a 2x in price but would need an extra trillion.

Crypto Fans, Portugal is calling Zero% tax plus payment acceptance.

The ‘Bitcoin Family’ immigrates to Portugal for its 0% tax on cryptocurrencies

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/06/bitcoin-family-moves-to-portugal-crypto-tax-haven.html

skydiver01:
Crypto Fans, Portugal is calling Zero% tax plus payment acceptance.

The ‘Bitcoin Family’ immigrates to Portugal for its 0% tax on cryptocurrencies

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/06/bitcoin-family-moves-to-portugal-crypto-tax-haven.html

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Gtco plc buy back investment
-one fund management limited

.

janga:
Gtco plc buy back investment
-one fund management limited

A good development.

Please I have a very important question, Why is it that when oil is at $30 there will be pandemonium everywhere in Nigeria, Government will devalue the Naira and the cost of food items will go high?

But now that oil is at $90 an all-time high things will not stabilize, there is even a risk of fuel scarcity now, which further increase the cost of survival in Nigeria?

Isn't there a situation we can take advantage of?

Very unusual for oga Emmawumi to be absent for such long spells, hope all is okay?

emmasoft:


A good development.

This is now a license to increase your spamming by 10 raise to to power 10.

ojesymsym:
Very unusual for oga Emmawumi to be absent for such long spells, hope all is okay?

All is okay ooo.

richforever123:
Please I have a very important question, Why is it that when oil is at $30 there will be pandemonium everywhere in Nigeria, Government will devalue the Naira and the cost of food items will go high?

But now that oil is at $90 an all-time high things will not stabilize, there is even a risk of fuel scarcity now, which further increase the cost of survival in Nigeria?

Isn't there a situation we can take advantage of?

Due to our National dependence on Oil for Govt Revenue and the dependence on Petrol for transport and power for individuals and businesses ,we are stuck between a rock and a Hard place.

If Oil falls to $30 dollars per barrel...govt at all levels go broke,unable to pay salaries or fund expenditure...also at that level, dollar supply dries up , devaluation and inflation become a problem

At High oil prices...Subsidy spending goes high, deductions for subsidy claim a large chunk of revenue,creating difficulty in funding payments and importing fuel,hence scarcity,

now if subsidy is removed...Govt gains and the masses lose in the short term ..with inflation reducing purchasing power...

So at one extreme Both Government and the People lose,while at the other end Government gains,the people lose.

The only sweet spot is between 58-65 dollars where subsidy payment is manageable and government revenue is not too low

donguutti:


Due to our National dependence on Oil for Govt Revenue and the dependence on Petrol for transport and power for individuals and businesses ,we are stuck between a rock and a Hard place.

If Oil falls to $30 dollars per barrel...govt at all levels go broke,unable to pay salaries or fund expenditure...also at that level, dollar supply dries up , devaluation and inflation become a problem

At High oil prices...Subsidy spending goes high, deductions for subsidy claim a large chunk of revenue,creating difficulty in funding payments and importing fuel,hence scarcity,

now if subsidy is removed...Govt gains and the masses lose in the short term ..with inflation reducing purchasing power...

So at one extreme Both Government and the People lose,while at the other end Government gains,the people lose.

The only sweet spot is between 58-65 dollars where subsidy payment is manageable and government revenue is not too low

I am sick and tired of all this ECONOMIC ANALYSIS in Nigeria, is it only Nigeria that is an oil producing country?

Oil that was given by the Creator to be a blessing to the people of Nigeria has become a terrible curse

When some people conclude that Nigeria is dead and beyond redemption we are quick to call them unpatriotic citizens.

During the reign of ex Libyan strong-man Gaddafi, he used Oil in Libya to transform Libya to a mini - Europe.

Libya although an African country was envied by the Western world because of the way Gaddafi was able to use the same oil that has become a curse to Nigeria to make Libya a great nation.

I don't want to go into the dictatorship of Gaddafi , l am just pointing out the fact that as small as Libya was, Gadafi used oil and gas to ensure that Libyan citizens enjoyed the basic necessities of life >> food, shelter, security etc.

What kind of nonsense is going on in Nigeria.

When will the poor masses ever get a reprieve and be able to atleast enjoy the basic necessities of life.

That is why the quest for exiting and leaving Nigeria by millions of people will not stop

AngelicBeing:

During the reign of ex Libyan strong-man Gaddafi, he used Oil in Libya to transform Libya to a mini - Europe.

Libya although an African country was envied by the Western world because of the way Gaddafi was able to use the same oil that has become a curse to Nigeria to make Libya a great nation.

Gadafi used oil and gas to ensure that Libyan citizens enjoyed the basic necessities of life >> food, shelter, security etc.

Libya population - 7 million
Nigeria population - 200+ million

aieromon:


Libya population - 7 million
Nigeria population - 200+ million

It makes no difference, even if Libya was 1Trillion people, Gadafi would have still been able to do the same thing, it is not about population but a combination of several factors which includes but not limited to ENDEMIC CORRUPTION in the oil and gas industry in Nigeria, you can pocket subsidy and cook up in Nigeria to steal / embezzle money but try that in Libya or other GCC COUNTRIES, na AK47 to the skull of the culprit at the back of the desert,

AngelicBeing:
It makes no difference, even if Libya was 1Trillion people, Gadafi would have still been able to do the same thing, it is not about population but a combination of several factors which includes but not limited to ENDEMIC CORRUPTION in the oil and gas industry in Nigeria, you can pocket subsidy and cook up in Nigeria to steal / embezzle money but try that in Libya or other GCC COUNTRIES, na AK47 to the skull of the culprit at the back of the desert,

Population counts as well as productivity of the population.

AngelicBeing:
It makes no difference, even if Libya was 1Trillion people, Gadafi would have still been able to do the same thing, it is not about population but a combination of several factors which includes but not limited to ENDEMIC CORRUPTION in the oil and gas industry in Nigeria, you can pocket subsidy and cook up in Nigeria to steal / embezzle money but try that in Libya or other GCC COUNTRIES, na AK47 to the skull of the culprit at the back of the desert,

Who be this one with this yamayama smelling talk. You think Gadaffi was not corrupt? Gadaffi that kept almost all the resources of the country for himself and family ? What do you know about Libya? Libya that was as good as a poor country with oil? Why do you think they celebrated Gadaffi’s capture and death? Too much suffering for the masses. He gave them crumbs and kept the rest for himself.

Shut up that your mouth there if you have nothing intelligent to say before very strong yamayama nack that your shining bald head for there

Labadi69:


I am an idiot, I am one of the most useless poster on nairaland.unblockandhide.com, demented scallywag belch by a village witch, because of how USELESS AND STUPID l am, the day l was born due to my non- functioning brain, l was named LABADI69 YAMAYAMA alias the Most useless idiot on Earth by my family.

l also have the brain Cell of A PIGLET, l am not fit or qualified to live among decent human beings and that is why I post rubbish on nairaland.unblockandhide.com daily, scroll through my name name on nairaland.unblockandhide.com and you will see all the Rubbish l post in every SECTION OF NAIRALAND.COM due to my DEAD BRAIN CELL.

l am frustrated in Ivory Coast where l currently reside and my second Name is Labadi69 Yamayama, the most useless idiot on nairaland.unblockandhide.com, Nigeria, Africa and the whole world.

I will continue to be an idiot because I was belch by a village witch in a Yamayama ghetto and yamayama follows me about daily and I will live a Yamayama life for the rest of my life on planet earth (

Kindly find below NTB auction results.