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LordAdam16's Posts 5474e

LordAdam16's Posts

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LordAdam16: 5:39pm On Dec 10, 2024
WriteerNg:
⚑Hama square, thousands gather to witness HTS terrorists execute known SAA officers without a fair trial.

At least we can see why I am in of Israel destroying the heavy weaponry.

Saw an unverified video of some HTS-d terrorists bragging about ethnic cleansing a Shiite village in the Homs countryside.

-Lord

4 Likes 1 Share

LordAdam16: 5:34pm On Dec 10, 2024
Ghostagain:
Well said.
The terrorists and their sympathisers have just turned Syria into Gaza 2.0.
I wonder if they are still dancing as we speak.

Dance ke.

They're doing "you can't see me" with the IDF.

Standing still and hoping Netanyahu does not notice them.
πŸ˜‚πŸ€£πŸ˜†

Jihadists wen no wan go meet their virgins.
Terrorists wen dey fear matyrdom.

You wan rule country but you no 1 multi-task.

-Lord

2 Likes

LordAdam16: 5:27pm On Dec 10, 2024
WriteerNg:



Who be "Warfare Analysis" again? πŸ˜‚ 🀣 πŸ˜‚

Everyday for here we dey discover new names of our colleagues.

Na one TG channel when be body to the Resistance.
Now, e don drop mask, we see say na Sunni supremacist and jihadist.


-Lord

5 Likes 1 Share

LordAdam16: 4:27pm On Dec 10, 2024
Vic2023:
they just fought a whole state, now they are fighting SDF that is well equipped by USA and you are still expecting them to open another front with middle regional power, I no expect this one from you sha!

To whom much is given, much is expected.
If you want to enjoy power, you must accept the responsibilities that come with it.

Did you guys think the Assads were chewing gum and banging harems for the last 50 years?

A foreign power is encroaching on Syrian soil and destroying the weapons owned by the Syrian state that are crucial to national security.
Assad fought off dozens of group backed by global and regional powers simultaneously.
He did not have two heads.
You did not fight a whole state. SAA did not put up any resistance, they let you advance unimpeded and disbanded.
Now you're fighting just the SDF only and you're already complaining. Go and fight your mate, jihadist cowards!
After all, Turkey and the Gulf are your benefactors.
What are you scared of? If Hamas can do it, so can you!

-Lord

8 Likes 3 Shares

LordAdam16: 3:45pm On Dec 10, 2024
shoodboi2:


Assad took "every man to himself" too seriously πŸ˜‚. No wonder his brother's wife is suddenly ing HTS. Assad should make sure the money goes round. His brother really tried for him.

The Assads are a complicated bunch.
His brother, Maher, was solidly pro-Iranian; while Bashar tried to accommodate everyone's interests.

Word on the grapevine is that Manal (Maher's wife) was tainted.
Her family were implicated in an intelligence scheme that led to a purge.
Would explain why Bashar did not inform Maher before he dipped.

-Lord

1 Like

LordAdam16: 3:36pm On Dec 10, 2024
OkpaNsukkaisBae, Procashtips:

Warfare Analysis is now saying the terrorists should not confront the IDF.
That it is a trap.

The coward does not want the IDF to smoke his Wahhabist colleagues.
But he wants Iran and Hezbollah to fight the IDF, while his jihadists enjoy the spoils.

Ret**ds thinking they're clever.

-Lord

5 Likes 1 Share

LordAdam16: 12:38pm On Dec 10, 2024
Vic2023:
πŸ‡ΈπŸ‡Ύβš‘- Hayat Tahrir al-Sham outlets accuse the Syrian National Army of looting in Manbij, northern Syria.

πŸ˜‚πŸ€£πŸ€£πŸ˜„πŸ˜„

Turk-backed HTS accusing Turk-backed SNA of looting in Manbij while both are fighting against US-backed SDF Kurds.

Meanwhile, the assassinations have begun.

-Lord

2 Likes

LordAdam16: 12:17pm On Dec 10, 2024
seunny4lif:
Since the collapse of the Syrian government, more than 300 Israeli airstrikes have been carried out on the country.
Targeting Syrian Air Force and air defence networks

Why US have also carried out 100 of air strikes too

So clearly Israel and USA views the incoming government as more of a regional threat than Assad to me because why else are they target those so called Rebels that they ed and financed.


Look up the meaning of the term "useful id**t".

The terrorists are useful id**ts.

Israel has always wanted to Lebanize Syria.
Make it an ineffectual state with a ragtag military.
The US wants a secular puppet not "progressive jihadists".
But if it has to the terrorists to remove Assad, it'll do so.

No morals. No principles. Just shrewd geopoliticking.

-Lord

3 Likes 1 Share

LordAdam16: 12:07pm On Dec 10, 2024
Vic2023:
Assad is an Zionist agent,he arrested number of Palestinians most especially the resistance

shoodboi2:


The guy and his government have hated the Palestinian resistance since the days of the PLO (Palestinian Liberation Organization) and actively worked against them.

Assad publicly met with Hamas higher-ups after October 7.

Palestinian militants do not fall in a single silo.
Go brush up on your Levant history.
Syria intervened during the Lebanese civil war.
The Christians invited them, then opposed them. But Hafez was like I'm here now, deal with it.
Palestinian militants used to be a powerful force in Lebanon, Hafez Assad helped crushed it.
It's not like he was partial to any group. The senior Assad equally crushed the Palestinian, Lebanese Christian, and Lebanese Druze militias.
Many of the imprisonments of Palestinians were from that era and their offshoots.
The Christians and Hezbollah are dominant today in Lebanon because of those events.
Bashir Al-Assad withdrew from Lebanon in 2005. But for around a decade, his father was the guarantor of Lebanon's security.
The Palestinians who left their homeland to play geopolitics against the Assads FAFO.
After he left, Israel and Hezbollah had their 2006 war. Hezbollah won and subsequently became the premier paramilitary force in Lebanon because all of its natural competitors had been weakened or eliminated by Assad.

for Palestinians starts and end in Palestine.
Outside the homeland they'll be crushed every time.
The Palestinians ed the Muslim Brotherhood (in fact Hamas is a Muslim Brotherhood organization) in Egypt.
They successfully deposed Mubarak taking advantage of the Arab Spring. El-Sisi crushed them and fortified a resilient wall.
The Hashemite King of Jordan had his run-ins with the Palestinian militants as well. He banished them.
In Lebanon, they tried to push for a Sunni takeover, the Christians, Shiites, and Assad dismantled them.

Their successive losses has streamlined their militant activity to only liberation from Israel.
As it should be.

The Sunni terrorists that deposed Assad are now playing at heartstrings for legitimacy.
All of them including the newly released Palestinians should go liberate Palestine from Israel.

-Lord

3 Likes

LordAdam16: 11:19am On Dec 10, 2024
Ghostagain:
Sorry, I misjudged you.
As things were unfolding I thought you were like what I have just realized vic is.

No hard feelings, mate.

Developments were coming in thick and fast, and a lot of people were making on-the-spot assessments without a lot of information.
Perfect condition to misread. It happens to the best of us.

-Lord

4 Likes

LordAdam16: 11:11am On Dec 10, 2024
OkpaNsukkaisBae:


Either they're smoking 🚬 expired mosquito poo or na relaxer full their head. I love how the EU countries are deporting Syrians. Dumb and stupid people are disgusting. They all cheering for the new terrorist regime in Damascus should go back to Syria with immediate effect.

This is why when people were dooming about Russian and Iranian interests in Syria as Assad's government was collapsing, I was quick to share that the Axis had an opening to shape Syrian polity.

The Axis has not even started pushing buttons in Syria.
This is all organic.

The Gulf and co pressed for Riyad to be the next PM. HTS outflanked them to install their SSG PM.
72 hours after the fall of Assad and Syria has no air force, air defense network, or navy.
A new civil war rages.
The Resistance can still use Syria as a transit node in the midst of the chaos.

See, the Sunni Arabs have never been bright.
Everyone runs rings around them.
As I said, they made their bed. Let them get comfy on it.

This is the best 72 hours the Axis could have hoped for after Assad signed out.
Turkey v USA.
Israel destroying the military cache the terrorists might use to advance their sectarian interests against minorities or thwart Axis interests.
The Generals who sold out Assad and were planning to use the equipment he had painstakingly acquired to demand concessions get their instant karma. They've been wiped off the board politically.
The HTS, SNA and their Turk/Gulf backers look like ineffectual cooked spaghetti against Israel, preserving Iran's cred of being the only regional and global power capable and willing to take on the Zionists.
The West quickly laying the groundwork to boot out the "refugees". Let them go fix Syria under the rule of head-chopping terrorists.

Meanwhile, I hope Iran is using the opportunity to take precautions.
Start funding splinter groups in Syria. Fortify the Iraqi border. Deploy militias to help Hezbollah cover its eastern flanks. The mountains are a home advantage but it wouldn't stop the IDF from potential invading through the East behind Hez prepared defense lines.

-Lord

4 Likes 2 Shares

LordAdam16: 11:37pm On Dec 09, 2024
Regex:


I just hope Iran will buckle up and arm themselves with deterrent weapons like nukes. The reason being, after Syria, their next agenda is Iran.

It'll be scandalous if they don't acquire nukes.
Everyone including the US expects them to acquire it. The US + EU though would prefer if they do not announce they have it.

Nukes are a foregone conclusion.
They're moving ahead with ICBM development and modernizing their air force.
50 Su-35 from Russia + 100 J-10 from China to start.
The key thing is getting the Axis to expedite delivery.

-Lord

4 Likes 1 Share

LordAdam16: 10:03pm On Dec 09, 2024
Al Arabiya reports that al-Jolani sent an imioned plea via Qatar to Tehran seeking cooperation with Iran based on "shared Islamic principles".

IDF strikes having the desired effect.

He should calm down.
It's only been 48 hours since he seized power.
He should wear his big boy pants and confront the IDF in Syrian territory.

Hamas is doing it.
Hezbollah did it.
He should also ask his benefactor, Erdogan, to send his generals to his confrontation.

Israel is demilitarizing Syria.
A new civil war has kicked off between the Kurds and Turks; which is conveniently depleting their respective ranks.
At this rate, Iran will soon be like "Hellooo, is anyone home? Hellooo! I saw the front door open, hel... Where is everyone?"

-Lord

9 Likes 3 Shares

LordAdam16: 6:44pm On Dec 09, 2024
WriteerNg:
⚑Pentagon temporarily pauses flights again of troubled Osprey aircraft after another recent near-crash - AP

Have you seen any corroborative report on Russia's first Su-35 delivery to Iran?

The only tidbit on that came out less than two weeks ago.
I've been on the lookout for additional sources.

-Lord
LordAdam16: 10:24am On Dec 09, 2024
OkpaNsukkaisBae:


I mean the whole P5 unanimously voted to designate HTS as a terrorist group.
How can you be ing the resistance yet endorsing HTS?
At the bolded, it's easy to predict seeing how they're running a PR campaign for HTS, a terrorist organization founded by Osama bin Laden. Assad have killed 100m Syrians in an underground prison according to Warefare Analysis.

Israeli forces just annexed Syrian land at the border area, HTS have not released a statement even to condemn such move.

He does not the Resistance.

He considers Hezbollah and Shiite militias as useful id**ts.

To him, the Shia Crescent - Zionist confrontation is perfect.
His two enemies are degrading each other.
And the fall of Assad is one of the benefits.
Next up is Lebanon and Iraq.

He would relish a Taliban esque pure Sunni caliphate extending throughout the ME.

He is a very dangerous fellow.
Using Palestine and the unpopular ME regimes to advance his sick worldview.

PS: HTS did release a statement. They said the Israeli invasion is not a priority. Cowards.
HTS ers are angry that the SAA who granted them free age to take the cities did not confront the Israelis.
You seize power then complain that the people you seized power from are not dying for you.
They reason like they're superior and others are inferior. So others should put themselves in harms way, while they reap the rewards.

-Lord

1 Like

LordAdam16: 10:19am On Dec 09, 2024
Procashtips:


I think he's more of a religious er than a logical one.

How do you and oppose terrorists at the same time?

He espouses views of a Wahhabist.
He considers most of the Arab regimes illegitimate.
And is in favor of Islamic caliphates.

He is anti-Assad, Syria for Syrians loudmouth.
But he is staunchly against independence of the Kurds.
Kurds are Sunnis. Kurds are Syrians.

I have to say Sunni Arabs are something else.
It's Sunni Supremacism above everything.

Just two days ago, they were mocking Hezbollah and Iran.
They were talking about relocating Shiites and minorities.
They saw the fall of Assad as a triumph of the Sunnis.
They were planning to use the SAA heavy weaponry to crush dissent and diminish the Shiites and minorities.
Now that Israel has destroyed is destroying the weapons and taking Syrian land; they are now in favor of rapprochement with Hezbollah and Iran to take the brunt off them and distract the Zionists.
In their mind, they're clever.

The ret**ds were hoping Erdogan and Saudi will deploy jets to impose a no-fly zone in Syria.

-Lord

1 Like

LordAdam16: 9:32am On Dec 09, 2024
obedience4:



I understand your sentiment, but for now the HTS hasn't done anything worth provocation from the isrealis.

By the coming days we are going to see what power bloc they will be leaninig towards. Turkey seems the major stake holder because a rebel group they is among the coalition of rebels that ousted Assad.

The US carried out the biggest anti-ISIS bombing operation in Syria since the last ISIS offensive yesterday.

No one wants the HTS on their border.
Not Lebanon.
Not Israel.
Not Iraq.
Not Jordan.
Even Turkey deployed regular troops to serve as a buffer and keep an eye on them, as a secondary goal of going after the Kurds.

Russia was already destroying weapon depots to stop them falling into HTS hands.
Israel is doing everyone in the region a favor by conducting these strikes.

I said earlier that I had confidence that the terrorists will be contained.
Well, there you go.

-Lord

1 Like 1 Share

LordAdam16: 9:17am On Dec 09, 2024
OkpaNsukkaisBae:


Are you now endorsing world now terrorist groups like ISIS & Al Qaeda just because you hate Assad?

There's a clear difference between Hamas/Hezbollah & ISIS/Al Qaeda.

He is quoting Warfare Analysis.

WA is an intelligence asset.

He is a breathing contradiction.
He refuses to accept that the HTS are terrorists.
And he is making excuses for why the HTS is not responding to Israeli aggression.

-Lord
LordAdam16: 7:50pm On Dec 08, 2024
BoldBrainz:


Israel is just an over-pampered child whose tantrums and mischief always set the tone for chaos in the ME. And thanks to the propaganda machinery of the US, they always end up spinning the narrative to seem like the victims.

Just look at how they just unilaterally voided a 50 year old accord and have resorted to already attacking Syria, calling it a preemptive measure. Should the rebels regroup and retaliate, that's when you'll see the UNSC and thieving Western entities barking everywhere.

The rebels should retaliate.

These are type of the moves the Axis should encourage to create a conducive environment for Axis interests.
Just like that, the opposition sympathizers who were jeering at Hezbollah and Iran yesterday are now talking about cooperation to take on the Zionists.
Because they know when push comes to shove, Erdogan and their Gulf cowards aren't going to do sh*t about the IDF beside mouthing off meaningless platitudes.

-Lord

1 Like 1 Share

LordAdam16: 7:41pm On Dec 08, 2024
OkpaNsukkaisBae:
Mr & Mrs Assad safely arrived in Moscow. Putin delivered as usual.


Mossad long arm no reach... grin




LordAdam16

See, there are levels to this sh*t.

Mk him chillax and enjoy Russian chicks.

The SAA generals and intelligence officers wen no one fight for am don dey collect from IDF.
Life comes at you fast.

-Lord

2 Likes

LordAdam16: 6:46pm On Dec 08, 2024
BoldBrainz:
Israel no even wait make new Syrian government settle for office, them don begin bombard nonsense comot for their bodyπŸ˜‚.

Them go run go UNSC, start dey beg Russia and China to back their resolution.

Small children wen feel say dem smart.

Iran and Russia should sit back and sip wine.
They should ask Turkey to repel the Israeli attack.

-Lord

6 Likes 2 Shares

LordAdam16: 6:12pm On Dec 08, 2024
Ibime:
Goodluck to the Kurds of Syria. I heard the rebels have started attacking them

Apart from the recent problem with Iran and Israel, the truth is Yankee was satisfied with Assad Government cos Assad allowed the Kurds to breathe and Yankee have their bases in the Kurdish areas. Assad error was allowing Iran to use his area as base against Israel, otherwise he had made peace with all parties including the Arab league and Yankee. Unfortunately he stopped picking Erdogans calls (Erdogans wants to deport 2 million Syrians back to Syria and create a militarised buffer zone in Syria against the Kurds but Assad was ghosting him) and he also got on the wrong side of Israel. These jihadists will still worry Israel later down the line.


Jihadists generally do not trouble Israel.

Israel is tiny. It's essentially more trouble than it is worth.

The Jihadists want to establish large caliphates.
A. Israel does not have the real estate that satisfies their ego.
B. They prefer to operate in political vacuums with weak authorities.

This is the calm before the storm.
Everyone is waiting for the other shoe to drop and for the jihadists to drop pretenses.
If they do, it'll be a new civil war.
No non-Sunni Syrian wants to replace Assad with Taliban lite.
The Sunnis though want retribution for the decades-long repression under the Alawites.
The also want to push the other sects out and invite back Sunni refugees.

Some terrorists were chanting "Alawites to the grave. Christians to Beirut." while celebrating Assad's toppling.

Again why I say they have a long list of opps they want to attend to before getting to Israel.




The Kurds are everyone's favorite.
The US and the West. Israel. Iran. Russia. Lebanon. Iraq.
But Turkey (and Sunnis to some degree) hate their guts.

In fact in East Syria, during this offensive, when the MoD was still giving the line that they were withdrawing to defend Damascus; the SAA withdrew and Kurds allowed Assad government officials to continue operating after SAA troops withdrew.
So it remained effectively under Assad control but Kurdish protection.
Kurds escorted a convoy of Russian operators who were withdrawing to the coast. They had been deployed as a third party to monitor the Kurd-Turk line of engagement under Assad.

The problem for the Kurds is their remarkable loyalty to the Americans.
Makes it difficult for others in the region to bring them in a tent, because you'd almost certainly be divulging plans to a CIA plant.
Even right now, I'm sure if they made an entreaty to Iran, Tehran would be open to deploying Iraqi Shia militants to them against the Turks. But then the Iraqi Shiites will be operating in NATO airspace and Israel will put everyone who went there on a list that they'll strike when their deployment is over.




Erdogan wants to rebuild a neo-Ottoman empire.
Did he also confiscate Nagorno Karabakh through Azerbaijan because Pashinyan did not take his call?
The refugee and Kurdish buffer excuse is lamba.
Jordan has been hosting 2.3 million Palestinian refugees for decades. He should stop capping.

-Lord

1 Like

LordAdam16: 5:13pm On Dec 08, 2024
raumdeuter:


Down the line might not even be that far. Those people are restless and they will find fight soon. By the time Jihadists combine with Hamas and remainder of Hezbollah

Sometimes Middle east na to just check for the lesser evil cos every party get K-leg and skoin-skoin

Hamas; possibly.
Hezbollah and the Resistance Axis; no.

The Jihadists have been trying to gain a foothold in Lebanon for years.
The Lebanese Army and Hezbollah will face off with them. As they have in the past.
The Lebanese Army has already deployed troops to the border in a precautionary move.

In fact, odds are higher they target Lebanon before they contemplate attacking Israel.

-Lord
LordAdam16: 5:06pm On Dec 08, 2024
nihilistjnr:


But but but...


Russia did not abandon Syria.
Russia did not abandon Assad.

Assad's army refused to fight.
Russian jets continued pounding Idlib until Bashar signed out.
Iran offered an emergency troop surge of a couple battalions.
Iraqi militants streamed across the border.
Iraq publicly said Assad did not request military assistance.

The jihadists on the northern flank numbered less than 30,000.
On paper, the SAA had 150,000 troops.
Less than 8000 Ukrainian troops held Mariupol for two months against a numerically superior Russia raining incendiaries day and night.
This had nothing to do with Russia or Iran . Internal regime figures simply opted for a controlled demolition of the government.

I made my comment in response to the fake news that Israel assassinated Bashar's brother.

Up to the end of Bashar's reign, Israel did not assassinate any Assad as they were under Russian protection.
They still are.
Elements of General Maher Assad's division withdrew to Iraq.
Russia is still in its naval bases. It even still has a presence in central Syria. At least for now.
We'll find out the internal mechanics behind the collapse of Assad's government, but at no time did Russia or Iran abandon Assad until he unilaterally decided to drop the towel.
Egypt asked him to establish a government in exile. He refused. That's how checked out he and his regime power brokers were.

-Lord

3 Likes

LordAdam16: 12:32pm On Dec 08, 2024
WrriterNg:
Cc Apple.yard, Bold.Brainz, Ghost.again, Lord.Adam16, Master.violence, Re.gex, Shood.boi2, MI.LLE, Usman.pogo

What are your thoughts on this?

That's mostly cope.

Neither Iran nor Russia willingly gave up Syria.
Iran specifically was ready to go all in and deploy tens of thousands of troops to preserve their munitions highway to the Resistance.

What transpired was a combination of Assad not making basic defensive preparations and his military and political high command making backroom deals behind him.
Iran and Russia specifically asked him to make a stand in Hama thinking the Aleppo withdrawal was a one-off bad call.
But the train had left the station at that point. Power brokers in the Syrian government and military had made different plans.

Now all they can do is pick themselves up and get back in the ring to somehow steer the process to produce an Axis-friendly or at least Axis-neutral political coalition. And if they lose out, set things in motion to create dust-up as many times as is necessary until the political process produces an outcome they like.

Everything is not 5D chess.
Setbacks happen.

I don't even agree with his takeaway that this is somehow a negative outcome for NATO because they have to expend resources to fix Syria.
They print $ from thin air. They don't have nor need nor want to fix Syria. They're going to relax sanctions and build an elite class that's addicted and dependent on Western largesse. Such that when Washington, Tel Aviv, Abu Dhabi, or Riyadh say jump; they ask how high.
Look to Pakistan, Egypt for what they aim to do in Syria. The West is perfectly fine with Syria remaining a headache.

The goal of Iran and Russia, as they have different interests, is to somehow get a section of the new elite class to accept their respective interests as a fact of life or use a carrot and stick approach until they change their mind.
After the last Assad offensive, Russia realized the limitations of Assad and his gang. Which is why they were making deals with the Turks, Kurds, and Israelis. We'd let you keep that, we'll let you bomb that; just let us keep our guy and our ports.

That obviously had an expiry date, so new tactics are in order.
The only part I agree with is that Tehran and Moscow preserved lives and resources not getting in another horrible quagmire after which the SAA would return to their incompetent baseline... Until the next crisis.
The next phase is not particularly costly nor bloody for the Axis. And , it is easier to foment trouble than to nation build.
The West does not have a monopoly of the capability to train and fund groups to destabilize a political order.

In a cynical way, yes, they are relieved of the costly Assad regime and can get a good-enough substitute paradigm.
But that does not mean that they would not have preferred to keep Assad for as long as he was a viable political force.

-Lord

5 Likes 2 Shares

LordAdam16: 8:41am On Dec 08, 2024
LordAdam16:


Assad is old news.

Attention is now on the potential power sharing agreement.
And who the Axis backs.

Apparently, the terrorists are deploying a force to snatch Kurdish oil fields.


Update:

The Turkey-backed terrorists successfully seized Deir ez-Zor from the US-backed SDF.
The US had to mobilize aircrafts to provide cover for retreating SDF units.

No one is advancing to Russia controlled coastal cities of Latakia and Tartus where pro-Assad elements have taken refuge.
SAA personnel who cannot make it to the coast are still withdrawing to Iraq.

Besides the early strikes where SAA/Iranian militants/Russian jets killed hundreds of terrorists; all sides largely retain their forces and are consolidating in their respective territories.
Assad's PM says many ministers are still in Damascus.
Clearly, the deal to avoid a confrontation was not only made by the Generals.
The politicos were read in.

-Lord

5 Likes 1 Share

LordAdam16: 8:08am On Dec 08, 2024
Ghostagain:
Dude, listen: Isis terrorist group is on turkeys orders. I don't think they would attack turkey's ally or turkey. You've got to understand this, Isis (or hts) are terrorists and their leader is Erdogan.

He does have a point.

The terrorists have a long history of turning on their handlers.

-Lord

2 Likes

LordAdam16: 7:48am On Dec 08, 2024
WrriterNg:



The problem is you can't really predict what a man can do when he's in power.

These terrorists might make a U turn and go against their sponsors. Time will tell.

I mean sure Iraq is asking the US to leave, so it's not outside the realm of possibility.
There is absolutely a non-zero risk.

Still, it'll be a long shot in Syria for peculiar reasons.

-Lord

1 Like 1 Share

LordAdam16: 7:33am On Dec 08, 2024
OkpaNsukkaisBae:


The future of Russian military bases in Syria is not guaranteed.
The Qatar-Turkey gas pipeline might be activated if a Western aligned rebel takeover Syria.
Not looking good for Russia strategically

It's too early to predict what'll happen to Russia's two key interests.
The ports and the pipeline.

While Assad was still in power, Putin made overtures to the Kurds.
They rejected the advance.
Perhaps they'll reconsider now that they may have their designs on becoming a dominant force.
A Kurd + Shiite + Druze + Christian coalition could snatch power and preserve Russia's and Iran's interests.

I think there is an assumption that since the HTS led this offensive, Erdogan is now the Sultan of Syria.
There's still a lot that will happen.
Thousands of Syrian troops and their armory are in Iraq for safekeeping. The bulk of the SAA and pro-Assad militias withdrew to the coast (Latakia, Tartus).
So in a free for all, Russia and especially Iran could be courted by dueling parties looking to shore up or upstage a rival.
Turkey, the Gulf, Egypt+Jordan, US all have their preferred groups, so Russia and Iran could place their thumb on the scale for whomever agrees to preserve their interests.

I do think Iran should exercise urgency and look to China to meet more of its urgent armament needs.
Trump's return will mean a 4 year arms race.
Hostilities will resume when he leaves.

-Lord

7 Likes 1 Share

LordAdam16: 6:41am On Dec 08, 2024
WrriterNg:



The US too would be affected because they have a small contingent in Syria.

What will happen to them?

Nothing will happen to them.

Lift some sanctions and Assad's successor will turn a blind eye to US presence.
Depending on how power shakes out, they may even legalize the US contingent.

-Lord

2 Likes 1 Share

LordAdam16: 6:21am On Dec 08, 2024
OkpaNsukkaisBae:


Syria is under heavy sanctions
Country divided by different factions.
Turkey and Israeli missiles striking Syrian every now and then. A lot have changed, no Wagner, no General Soleimani in Syria. Assad have little on his hand to project power.

Assad is old news.

Attention is now on the potential power sharing agreement.
And who the Axis backs.

Apparently, the terrorists are deploying a force to snatch Kurdish oil fields.

-Lord

1 Like

LordAdam16: 5:58am On Dec 08, 2024
OkpaNsukkaisBae:


They have been overrun.. That was a lightning offensive. At every point of , pro Assad forces have been retreating. Most times they choose not to engage. The rebels are in Damascus already, even if you're retreating, you should be able to defend your capital. The Syrian Army has withdrawn from its position in Damascus. Assad too don leave Damascus.


They had no plan to defend anything.

The Syrian Generals retain control of the divisions and armory in their command.

So writer is right, that it is not a question of strength or being overrun.
Certain figures in the regime decided to upgrade from Assad to a situation where they have a shot at running things directly.
And the weaponry they refused to use to defend the cities will be used to prosecute a Civil War redux if it comes to that.
We'll find out who these people are.

The PM for instance is not scared.

-Lord

2 Likes

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