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Ayietim's Posts

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Ayietim(m): 9:08pm On Aug 10, 2021
An entrepreneur is always faced with two real dilemmas when they have to make crucial business decisions.


The first is a limiting factor and the second is knowing how to pick the best among alternatives at a given time.
The limiting factor, otherwise known as the principal budget factor is a key factor that works against unlimited profits and indefinite growth and expansion.


Unlimited profits and indefinite growth are impossible in business because at a point, there is going to be instability of any of productivity, demand and supplies.


A business is certainly going to get to that point where available fixed space is not going to be enough to meet increase in demand. And don’t forget the availability of finance to meet expansion needs.

There will always be a limiting factor in the business world as long as revenues depend on costs. And profits remain the lifeline of every business venture.

It’s fairly easy for an entrepreneur to maximize contribution per unit of a single limiting factor by choosing an alternative. For instance, where there is constraint of space to meet exploding demand, an entrepreneur may decide to either outsource or focus only on the production of profitable products. But constraints are often more than one.

An entrepreneur faced with limiting factors can use the differential costing principle to assess the revenue and cost differentials among alternatives to reach the most appropriate decision.

Differential costing can be used for both short run and long run decisions as it considers changes in both fixed and variable costs.

Differential cost is the difference between the cost of two alternative decisions. The cost arises when a business is faced with similar alternatives where the choice of one option means the forgoing of others.

It is important to note that only costs which will react to a decision are relevant. The following costs are irrelevant;

Any fixed cost that can be defined as unalterable is not a differential cost and should not be considered,
Already incurred (sunk) costs are not considered,
Values of assets from which depreciation expenses have deducted are not considered,
4. All future costs which can’t be renegotiated and avoided are not considered.

What is a Differential Cost example?

Assuming. A business at present operating at full capacity, sells product xyz it manufactures at $5 each. The present volume per annum is 150,000 units. The company’s cost structure is;

https://ayietim.com/2021/08/10/differential-cost-approach-to-business-decision-making/
Ayietim(m): 8:58pm On Aug 10, 2021
An entrepreneur is always faced with two real dilemmas when they have to make crucial business decisions.


The first is a limiting factor and the second is knowing how to pick the best among alternatives at a given time.
The limiting factor, otherwise known as the principal budget factor is a key factor that works against unlimited profits and indefinite growth and expansion.


Unlimited profits and indefinite growth are impossible in business because at a point, there is going to be instability of any of productivity, demand and supplies.


A business is certainly going to get to that point where available fixed space is not going to be enough to meet increase in demand. And don’t forget the availability of finance to meet expansion needs.

There will always be a limiting factor in the business world as long as revenues depend on costs. And profits remain the lifeline of every business venture.

It’s fairly easy for an entrepreneur to maximize contribution per unit of a single limiting factor by choosing an alternative. For instance, where there is constraint of space to meet exploding demand, an entrepreneur may decide to either outsource or focus only on the production of profitable products. But constraints are often more than one.

An entrepreneur faced with limiting factors can use the differential costing principle to assess the revenue and cost differentials among alternatives to reach the most appropriate decision.

Differential costing can be used for both short run and long run decisions as it considers changes in both fixed and variable costs.

Differential cost is the difference between the cost of two alternative decisions. The cost arises when a business is faced with similar alternatives where the choice of one option means the forgoing of others.

It is important to note that only costs which will react to a decision are relevant. The following costs are irrelevant;

Any fixed cost that can be defined as unalterable is not a differential cost and should not be considered,
Already incurred (sunk) costs are not considered,
Values of assets from which depreciation expenses have deducted are not considered,
4. All future costs which can’t be renegotiated and avoided are not considered.

What is a Differential Cost example?

Assuming. A business at present operating at full capacity, sells product xyz it manufactures at $5 each. The present volume per annum is 150,000 units. The company’s cost structure is;

https://ayietim.com/2021/08/10/differential-cost-approach-to-business-decision-making/
Ayietim(m): 8:47pm On Aug 10, 2021
An entrepreneur is always faced with two real dilemmas when they have to make crucial business decisions.


The first is a limiting factor and the second is knowing how to pick the best among alternatives at a given time.
The limiting factor, otherwise known as the principal budget factor is a key factor that works against unlimited profits and indefinite growth and expansion.


Unlimited profits and indefinite growth are impossible in business because at a point, there is going to be instability of any of productivity, demand and supplies.


A business is certainly going to get to that point where available fixed space is not going to be enough to meet increase in demand. And don’t forget the availability of finance to meet expansion needs.

There will always be a limiting factor in the business world as long as revenues depend on costs. And profits remain the lifeline of every business venture.

It’s fairly easy for an entrepreneur to maximize contribution per unit of a single limiting factor by choosing an alternative. For instance, where there is constraint of space to meet exploding demand, an entrepreneur may decide to either outsource or focus only on the production of profitable products. But constraints are often more than one.

An entrepreneur faced with limiting factors can use the differential costing principle to assess the revenue and cost differentials among alternatives to reach the most appropriate decision.

Differential costing can be used for both short run and long run decisions as it considers changes in both fixed and variable costs.

Differential cost is the difference between the cost of two alternative decisions. The cost arises when a business is faced with similar alternatives where the choice of one option means the forgoing of others.

It is important to note that only costs which will react to a decision are relevant. The following costs are irrelevant;

Any fixed cost that can be defined as unalterable is not a differential cost and should not be considered,
Already incurred (sunk) costs are not considered,
Values of assets from which depreciation expenses have deducted are not considered,
4. All future costs which can’t be renegotiated and avoided are not considered.

What is a Differential Cost example?

Assuming. A business at present operating at full capacity, sells product xyz it manufactures at $5 each. The present volume per annum is 150,000 units. The company’s cost structure is;

https://ayietim.com/2021/08/10/differential-cost-approach-to-business-decision-making/
Ayietim(m): 2:15pm On Aug 09, 2021
Suddenly the demand for your company’s products is overwhelming its existing capacity to meet it. It’s either you rise to the occasion and meet increasing demand or you lose the patronage to a competitor and fizzle out. You don’t want to fizzle out, so you must approach investors for long-term funds.


Investors will want to assess the strategic way you have been financing your business. They will want to know, “will you earn enough profits to meet interest payments when due?”

Interest cover ratio is the financial analysis tool you can use to make a self assessment before you approach investors.


What is Interest Cover Ratio?


Interest cover ratio is a capital structure ratio that shows whether enough profits are being earned to meet interest payments.


Interest cover is a long-term ratio that focuses on strategic level of corporate decision making as opposed to operational level decision making.


Note that capital structure as used above, refers to how a company finances its activities, growth and expansion. It is a combination of a company’s equity (including ordinary share capital, retained profits) and debt (loans).


How is Interest Cover Ratio Calculated?
Interest cover is calculated by dividing Profit Before Interest and Tax (PBIT) by the interest charges.


How important is interest cover ratio?


The fact that a company is making profit is not a guarantee that there will be enough cash to pay interest charges when they fall due.


This is why investors will want to assess your company’s financial statements to reach conclusions about the operational and strategic activities and, the financial health of your company.


So interest cover ratio will help investors to assess the level of solvency of your company. It is believed that a company with high solvency will dedicate a portion of its operating profit to pay interest charges.


What is a good interest cover?


Analysts say a good interest cover should not be less than three times.


Let us look at an example. If profit before interest and tax is $800,000 and the total interest charges are $40,000, the interest cover is;


PBIT/Interest charges,
$800,000/$40,000 = 20 times.


The interest cover is 20 times and this means that the chances of getting investors s are high.


This interest cover ratio indicates a stronger financial health (more solvent); there is sufficient operating profits to meet interest payments when due.


The lower the ratio the higher the chances of the company being exposed to volatile interest rates.


However, low interest cover doesn’t always mean low solvency and consequently, inability to pay interest charges when due. In industries with stable sales such as utilities, low interest coverage ratio is enough.

On the other hand, industries with unstable highly variable sales such as apparel need to have high interest coverage ratio

https://ayietim.com/2021/08/09/how-important-is-the-capital-structure-ratio-interest-cover-ratio/
Ayietim(m): 1:52pm On Aug 06, 2021
By consciously setting out to be the sower of seeds. Ideas are unseen seeds that become seen when they bear fruits.


It’s not easy to know an idea that would bear fruits when the idea is still in its invisible state. It takes faith, belief and hard work to have an idea and nurture it to fruition.


Out of so many ideas, only very few bear fruits. Therefore, how could one generate fruit bearing ideas?


It’s by increasing the chances of the fruitfulness of one’s ideas’ bank. The leaner the ideas’ bank, the lower the chances of reaping a single fruit. On the other hand, the fatter the ideas’ bank , the higher the chances of plenty fruits. But how does one get an avalanche of fruits to fill their ideas’ bank?


It’s by being the sower who gathers and fills their bag with seeds of different kinds then goes out to plant them in all types of soil. The types of soil are the people you run ideas by; they are those in your network.


The quality of people you have in your network is a major determinant of the quality
and quantity of ideas you generate.

Apart from having creative people around you to stimulate your creative capability, what other sources of energy can aid you generate great ideas?

You have to develop the capability to be attentive to your inner thoughts and the environment around you. The habit of paying attention to inner thoughts is a conscious act that’s made possible by self talk.
Form the habit of talking to yourself; ask yourself questions about what you find perplexing , intriguing and abnormal in your environment. Don’t just ask questions; make a conscious effort to listen attentively to your heart as it whispers answers.

You are going to find one of those answers, a great idea.

2. Read books. Great books can take you on journeys unimaginable. They can take you to fantastic places; introduce you to interesting people, beautiful culture, powerful concepts and fascinating ideas...

https://ayietim.com/2021/08/06/how-do-you-consistently-generate-great-ideas/
Ayietim(m): 6:22pm On Aug 05, 2021
And you are 60?

Quit if you must. Don’t put up with anything you don’t like.

Many are going to tell you that you are past your productive age and so, no one would give you a better offer.

Some may say that you are fortunate to have a job young and energetic people would give an arm for. But quit if you must and pay attention only to what you want.

Know this, you are not too old to make it in life. It is never too late for you to do something great in life. Know this;

“It doesn’t matter if you come from the inner city. People who fail in life are people who find lots of excuses. It’s never too late for a person to recognize that they have potential in themselves.” – Ben Carson.

So be bold to quit and go for greatness. According to James Swartz, “Fortune favors the bold.”

#fortune

https://ayietim.com/2020/07/25/they-said-youd-be-cleaning-toilets/
Ayietim(m): 4:43pm On Aug 04, 2021
ozome15:
Whosoever that post this God bless u. with this u can save many life.

Thank you very much.
Ayietim(m): 3:53pm On Aug 04, 2021
“The Buddha said that suffering was caused by desire, we’d learned, and that the cessation of desire meant the cessation of suffering. When you stopped wishing things wouldn’t fall apart, you’d stop suffering when they did.” – John Green.

Is this true? Yes it is.

The undoing of many is, they want only the good things of life. When any bad thing happens to them, they become confused, they panic and feel it is the end of the world.

They have forgotten that it is impossible to have an unbroken run of good times without intermittent periods when things don’t go as desired. In this life, everything exists in two extremes, including times and seasons.

Therefore, for the health of your heart, understand that good times and bad times are there for all to go through. There is nothing anybody can do about this. The understanding of this reality should stop you from troubling yourself when the undesired happens. It should put you in the right frame od mind to embrace bad times as you would, good times. When you have this understanding, you will achieve the harmony, upon which sustained peace of mind rest.

Desire only what is available but be attached to nothing,

so that when the undesired happens and takes everything,

with nothing, you can rise from the crisis,

and not lose an atom of the real you to the ashes.

https://ayietim.com/2020/06/27/do-desires-open-the-door-to-sufferings/

Lalasticlala Mynd44
Ayietim(m): 4:01am On Aug 04, 2021
I love this.

Lalasticlala Mynd44
Ayietim(m): 10:22pm On Aug 03, 2021
True love is an unconditional gift. But so many snub it for gifts with a strong of conditions attached to them.

After the partial fulfilment of those conditions, the lust that was clothed as love is withdrawn; leaving a heart broken, aching and desperate not to love again.

The withdrawal is mostly because the giver of conditional gifts may not believe in love or may not know what love is. And may not understand the fact that, without love, life ceases to have any meaning.
Ayietim(m): 10:16pm On Aug 03, 2021
It's an advice and a guide on how to recognize true love when it knocks.
Ayietim(m): 10:10pm On Aug 03, 2021
You're right. It's a fact. The way out? Blessed ladies shouldn't be desperate.
Ayietim(m): 9:09pm On Aug 03, 2021
When I took your love for granted,
it was hate that I chose and accepted.

I did it out of ignorance,,
tnanks for your endurance,
you lived with my excesses for years,
you accepted my imperfections in tears,

tears for my sake, I was lost, I didn’t know where I was going,
you kept on searching with your love as my protective clothing,

from stormy weather and extreme cold,
which I had ignorantly exposed myself to.

I am glad you found me when you did,
I was close to death but you didn’t give up on me.

You rescued me and gave me shelter in your heart,
in your heart, I am protected from the adversities of life.

Why did you rescue me? please give me the reason,
you saved a misfit, someone whose life didn’t have a meaning,

you saved a loafer from self destruction,
I rejected what was right and chose meaningless isolation,

an isolation from love and comion,
an isolation from your affection and ion,

I guess I will never know why,
but one thing I know is, from the start, you were always right.

https://ayietim.com/2015/05/11/it-is-hard-to-define-true-love/
Ayietim(m): 3:06pm On Aug 03, 2021
Who needs personal emotional trainers?


All of us, if you haven’t realized, we all have them in abundance. They are with us everywhere to help us live to our fullest potential.


Regrettably, most personal emotional trainers we meet everyday don’t rub off positively on us. Most of them form the match that ignites negative emotions in us.

Have you met any of them yet? Sure you have.


Do you have someone in your office you try to stay out of their way? The avoidance is precautionary; the person does or says things that upset you.


Think about that person that tells everyone around them how unfair the world is to them.

They paint pictures of hopelessness every time and maybe, have succeeded to make you share the belief that the world is coming to an end. If you are the optimistic type, don’t you sometimes want to avoid a pessimist?


Pessimists are everywhere; may be your partner at home. Every time something goes wrong, it’s an ill fortune caused by unseen forces that don’t want you to be happy in life.


Where you want to paint a picture of hope, they paint you a picture of gloom. Instead of them giving you words of encouragement, they give you words that instill fear.


It’s tough to have personal emotional trainers who activate negative emotionional triggers, as friends, colleagues and partners.

A social network built around negative people is counterproductive.
It’s a negative that doesn’t inspire self-belief, fearlessness and the determination to be persistent.


Are there positives to take from a relationship with negative people?

https://ayietim.com/2021/08/03/negative-emotions-vs-personal-emotional-trainers/

#emotions
Ayietim(m): 3:19pm On Jul 31, 2021
A business is set up to make profit. A business that wants to make profit has to work hard to earn the loyalty of their customers.


To earn the loyalty of customers, a business has to work hard to satisfy customers and earn their willingness to start a relationship. It is the relationship that will cause customers to be repeat customers, refer other customers to the business and strongly resist switching to a competitor.


The following tips can help strengthen the relationship between a business and its customers and also build a strong customer loyalty.

Learn to exceed customer expectations;
A business that understands how important it is to earn customer loyalty will try to exceed customer expectations by adding extra value.

The business will work hard at giving a higher quality of product relative to price charged. The extra value could be long-term guarantees, an attractive packaging, the right product, free customer advisory services and others.

Another way to exceed customer expectations is by offering superior informational services. A product or service accompanying written information materials, are powerful outlets to give clear information.

The information may contain proper usage, storage and other directions which can help the customer derive maximum satisfaction from the product or service. It is also important to take time to explain expectations the customer should have.

Give freebies, provide after sales services and other add-on services or products. Think, what other small items can you offer your customer to earn their loyalty?

2. Explore ways of improving follow-up.

Follow-up is a great way to make a significant impression on both new and returning customers. Most businesses that retain customer loyalty schedule times to find out how satisfied customers are with their purchases. Many businesses that make commitments to follow up with customers, work hard to keep such commitments.

3. Ask for .

You want to earn the loyalty of your customers, let them know you really want honest reviews of your product or service. It is equally important to provide channels to your customers.

Get honest reviews, good or bad observations, from customers by giving them the freedom to express themselves. You give this freedom by asking the ‘what’ and the ‘how’ open –ended questions.

Get to know their problems, resolve them timely and serve your customers in great ways hard to find somewhere else.

4. customer is king.

So give them the best. Surprise your customer with convenient services. Let them know that you value their time and the effort they put in to do business with you. A business that values customer loyalty prioritizes effective and efficient service delivery.

https://ayietim.com/2021/07/31/how-do-you-encourage-customer-loyalty/
Ayietim(m): 9:20pm On Jul 29, 2021
He’s more myself than I am. Whatever our souls are made of, his and mine are the same.” – Emily Brontë.


Oneness of two hearts is the work of true love,


two souls, locked together, are made of the same stuff;


One makes the other better,


but the oxygen of the inspirator is heart of the lover,


the sum of the two better halves


is the truth; that two soulmates are always better together.

https://ayietim.com/2021/07/29/emily-bronte-hes-more-myself-than-i-am/
Ayietim(m): 10:48am On Jul 29, 2021
You are wonderfully made. You are capable of achieving anything that is humanly possible. Just believe it!

Believing in possibilities is not self delusion. It is accepting your thoughts, feelings and experience without believing that all your thoughts and feelings are justified. This is what self-validation is.


Self-validation helps one to recognize their true value. The recognition of your value is the foundation you need to live a purposeful life, driven by goals and self-discipline.

This realization is a wedge against distractions, feelings of self-doubts and inferiority complex. This is true because you know who you really are.


Knowing who you are is useful for an effective management of deep internal emotions. You are able to identify with internal emotions which are yours and dissociate from those which are alien to your personality. This self-awareness hastens the process of dealing with emotional crises.


To improve self-validation, you should know the right steps to take.

Start the process to improve self-validation by saying wonderful things to you.
If you don’t recognize your worth, no one may; for you have to mine the gold within you, bring it out for the world to see and ire.

Self-discovery begins with sincere self introspection. And self-introspection is activated by hearing and believing powerful words of inspiration.

So if people are yet to tell YOU how great you are, tell yourself inspiring words every morning, all day and at night before you go to bed.


2. Accepting your mistakes when you make them is another step to improve self-validation. Everyone makes mistakes including successful people.

Successful people accept their mistakes and weaknesses but use their strengths to correct their mistakes and cover their weaknesses. You should borrow a leaf from them.

https://ayietim.com/2021/07/29/5-big-steps-to-improve-self-validation/
Ayietim(m): 8:35pm On Jul 28, 2021
Terrance Stanley Fox CC OD was a Canadian athlete, humanitarian, and cancer research activist. In 1980, with one leg having been amputated due to cancer, he embarked on an east to west cross-Canada run to raise money and awareness for cancer research.
******************************
"is the biggest chance,


to help others live their dreams


and give them hope for miracles when they are up against an ill wind."


7 Terry Fox quotes to give you second wind to win the race of life.

I guess that one of the most important things I’ve learned is that nothing is ever completely bad. Even cancer. It has made me a better person. It has given me courage and a sense of purpose I never had before. But you don’t have to do like I did…wait until you lose a leg or get some awful disease, before you take the time to find out what kind of stuff you’re really made of. You can start now. Anybody can.-
2. I just wish people would realize that anything’s possible if you try; dreams are made possible if you try.

3. Dreams are made possible if you try.

4. I want to set an example that will never be forgotten.

5. I do what I do for the people who believe in me, not for the jerks who don’t.

6. I don’t feel that this is unfair. That’s the thing about cancer. I’m not the only one, it happens all the time to people. I’m not special. This just intensifies what I did. It gives it more meaning. It’ll inspire more people. I just wish people would realize that anything’s possible if you try; dreams are made possible if you try

7. I’m not a dreamer, and I’m not saying this will initiate any kind of definitive answer or cure to cancer, but I believe in miracles. I have to.

https://ayietim.com/2021/07/28/7-terry-fox-quotes-dream-run-believe-and-miracles/
Ayietim(m): 10:36pm On Jul 27, 2021
Nurseonduty:
He said he wanted to focus on God...

Hmmmm....
Ayietim(m): 4:47pm On Jul 27, 2021
tayewomi:
Mine:Dear pls can come over during the weekend,No am going to the market with my Mom,days later discovered she's home all over the weekend,questioned her:says she's doesn't want to visit strangers it all ended there

You are correct. So sad.

Lalasticlala
Mynd44
Ayietim(m): 4:20pm On Jul 27, 2021
It’s Over.
Some are not bold enough to say the words, “It’s over between us”.They don’t want to hurt nobody.


They hope for their actions to ‘say’, ‘This relationship is over’.

They may demonstrate the hope in many ways. Some of the ways are;


The partner who wants out cuts off the lifeline of the relationship. The lifeline of every relationship is a healthy, two way communication. The partner who wants out ceases to answer and return calls.

On rare occasions when they answer calls, they blame their inability to call back on ‘being too busy’. Some may be rude. They let you know that ‘You are too demanding of their time’ or ‘You are too self-centered’.

Press on to express your frustration at being shut of their lives, you get to hear, ‘I am tired of this, you are so unive.”

Take the hint in the message. It’s in “I am tired of this…” You may choose to stay on with the hope that they find their way back to your heart. Or you may want to walk away and get a life.

The partner who wants to walk away suddenly begins to find faults with almost everything you do or say. Your presence alone constitutes an ‘irritant’. Complaints become a daily bitter pill you have to swallow.
‘What is going on darling?” you may ask.
‘What?’ may be the answer?
“You seem to be complaining so much about everything I do or say. Have I done anything wrong darling?’ you really want to know.
“Look! I am tired of everything!!’ could be the thunderous response, the walking out on you and the slamming of the door in your face.
The drama is sure going to keep reoccurring until one person finally finds the courage to say, ‘I am tired, let’s go our separate ways.”

When the trust is gone, you are no longer taken into confidence. You want to know about things happening in the office? Go ahead and ask,

‘How was the office today?”

‘Fine.’ A brusque answer.

You are confused? You are wondering whether to probe further or to let sleeping dogs lie. Wisdom whispers in your ear, “Avoid another fight this night.’

You are no longer found trustworthy to have a share in their dreams, works-in-progress, bad and good moments. Such moments are either locked up within or shared with someone else.

Yes, the mind is now on someone else, someone more appealing. The heart belongs to someone now regarded as a ‘better or a more suitable partner’.

You have ceased to be the one after the heart of the partner who wishes you get the hint that ‘the relationship is over’. Eventually you become used to talking to a wood. Most times, conversations with your once talkative partner become a monologue; you end up talking to yourself. The body is with you but the mind is with someone else. Take the hint.

Physical intimacy? You can’t the last time they had a burning in their veins for you, can you? That can’t happen anymore except under an influence. The heart is gone, Wake up! Try to bring up the subject and get served flimsy excuses.

Take the initiative to create moments of intimacy and get pushed away. The multiple rejections are eventually going to get to you. When they do, you would prefer to let them go.

https://ayietim.com/2021/07/27/how-do-you-know-when-a-relationship-is-over/
Ayietim(m): 4:17pm On Jul 26, 2021
It’s possible to predict with a high level of confidence what the future has in store based on prior information. You could use Bayes theorem or Bayes rule to determine the conditional probability of events.
Note that a conditional probability is the likelihood of an outcome occurring, based on a previous outcome.

What is Bayes theorem or Bayes rule?

Bayes theorem or Bayes rule is a mathematical formula for determining the conditional probability of events. It is useful in calculating the probability of a first stage event given that a second event occurred.

Bayes theorem is a posterior probability that an event will happen after an event or background information has been considered. In other words, this probability is based on prior knowledge of the condition that might be fundamental to the event.

Rev. Thomas Bayes developed two formulas. These are;

P(A/B) = P(B/A) * P(A)/P(B)
Where;
A and B = events,
P(A/B) = probability of A given B is true,
P(B/A) = probability of B given A is true,
P(A) = the probability of event A
P(B) = the probability of event B
P(B) = P(B/A) * P(A) + P(B/A’) * P(A’)

Events A and B are independent of each other.

Or

P(A/B) = P(B/A) * P(A)/P(B/A) * P(A) + P(B/A’) * P(A’)

Where P(A’) = 1 – P(A)

The formula can be extended to three or more mutually exclusive events.

Let us consider an example:

If it is estimated that there is 30 percent chance that the level of unemployment will rise by 2 percent next year. If this occurs there’s a 80 percent chance that government will come up with a social welfare program. If the level of employment doesn’t rise, the probability of government funding such a program is 40 percent. If this program was funded by government, what is the probability that the level of employment rose by more than 2 percent?

Applying the Bayes theorem formula;

P(A) = 0.3
P(A’) = 0.7
P(B/A) = 0.8
P(B/A’) = 0.4

Therefore by Bayes theorem,

1
P(A/B) = P(B/A) * P(A)/P(B/A) * P(A) + P(B/A’) * P(A’)
Therefore,

P(A/B) = 0.8 * 0.3/ 0.8 * 0.3 + 0.4 * 0.7

1
= 0.46.
Therefore the probability of A given B is 0.46 and is less than 1. This means events A and B are mutually exclusive (they are independent).

Why is b Bayes theorem important for finance and business?

Bayes theorem is important for finance and business in the following ways;

It is used to calculate changes in interest rate on borrowed money. Interest rates may increase or decrease as a result of central banks’ monetary policy intervention in the money market.
2. It’s a fact that monetary policy has significant impact on the money supply in an economy which in turn, affects interest rates. Bayes rule uses information about a country’s monetary policy to determine changes in interest rate on borrowed money

3. It is also used to determine the direction of foreign exchange rates. Factors such as of trade, political stability, interest rates, government debt and others are used as information to determine changes in currency exchange rates using Bayes rule.

4. Bayes rule or Bayes law can be used to assess the impact of government policies on net income. Apart from government policies, Bayes theorem can be used to determine the impact of other external factors on net income. Such uncontrollable events may include climatic changes, litigations, economic shifts (growth or decline), technological innovations and others.

5. Bayes rule can also be used to determine credit worthiness.

In conclusion, Bayes theorem is an important part of critical thinking in business decision making. It should help a business that applies it to make best business decisions.

https://ayietim.com/2021/07/26/why-is-bayes-theorem-important-for-finance-and-business/

1 Like 1 Share

Ayietim(m): 4:06pm On Jul 25, 2021
It’s difficult for the mind to be at peace in the midst of so much chaos.


However, having strong positive beliefs and a calm spirit is finding the path to inner peace and love.


Below are 11 deep quotes to help you have positive beliefs and achieve inner peace.

You always own the option of having no opinion. There is never any need to get worked up or to trouble your soul about things you can’t control. These things are not asking to be judged by you. Leave them alone. – Marcus Aurelius,
2. There are two types of seeds in the mind: those that create anger, fear, frustration, jealousy, hatred and those that create love, comion, equanimity and joy. Spirituality is germination and sprouting of the second group and transforming the first group. – Amit Ray.

3. To understand the immeasurable, the mind must be extraordinarily quiet, still. – Jiddu Krishnamurti.

4. I said to my soul, be still and wait without hope, for hope would be hope for the wrong thing; wait without love, for love would be love of the wrong thing; there is yet faith, but the faith and the love are all in the waiting. Wait without thought, for you are not ready for thought: So the darkness shall be the light, and the stillness the dancing.- T.S. Eliot

5. If the ocean can calm itself, so can you.we are both salt water mixed with air. – Nayyirah Waheed.

6. Apply the ABC’s of success to your life. Ask, Believe and Claim It. Eric Thomas.

7. A believer . . . is never disturbed because other persons do not see the fact which he sees.”- Ralph Waldo Emerson.

8. Whilst everything around me is ever changing, ever dying, there is underlying all that change a living power that is changeless, that holds all together, that creates, dissolves and recreates. That informing power or spirit is God….And is this power benevolent or malevolent? I see it as purely benevolent. For I can see that in the midst of death life persists, in the midst of untruth truth persists, in the midst of darkness light persists. Hence I gather that God is Life, Truth, Light. He is Love. He is the supreme Good. – Mahatma Gandi.

9. Learn to get in touch with the silence within yourself and know that everything in this life has a purpose. There are no mistakes, no coincidences. All events are blessings given to us to learn from. Elizabeth Kübler-Ross.

10. Never be in a hurry; do everything quietly and in a calm spirit. Do not lose your inner peace for anything whatsoever, even if your whole world seems upset. Saint Francis de Sales.

11. Silence of the heart is necessary so you can hear God everywhere–in the closing of a door, in the person who needs you, in the birds that sing, in the flowers, in the animals. Mother Teresa.

https://ayietim.com/2021/07/25/11-powerful-deep-quotes-about-peace-of-mind-and-belief/
Ayietim(m): 11:01am On Jul 25, 2021
A big loss is a huge blow. The time of adversity could cause you to question the whole essence of existence;


Is this all there’s to life? To take years to build an empire only to lose it in less than an hour?
Is life all about spending years with a dearly loved one only to lose them when you couldn’t do without them?


Is this it? No.


The time of adversity and great loss is the right time to keep your faith and have a positive belief.


The time of adversity is the right time to get out of the rut and take a bigger leap. It’s the time to overcome the fear of the unknown and discover hidden truths about life. It’s the right time to use life’s deepest truths to grow stronger.


A big loss is a call to go to the fountain of wisdom and fill your mind to the brim.


The time of adversity and loss is not the time to stay down. It’s the time to rise up and fly above where others walk.


For the number of times you fall doesn’t matter, it’s the number of times you rise that counts

https://ayietim.com/2021/07/25/adversity-and-loss-make-a-man-wise/
Ayietim(m): 4:17pm On Jul 24, 2021
Introduction


What should beginner Investors know?

They should know that no wise investor wants to lose their investments. Wise investors invest in ways and styles that have low costs, low risks but high returns. The world’s most succesful investor recommends index funds.

What are index funds?


An Index fund or an index tracker is a mutual fund or an exchange traded find (ETF). So before defining what an index fund is, it is important to understand what a mutual fund and exchange traded fund are.

What is a mutual fund?


This is a pool of money collected from investors and invested in securities. These securities include stocks, bonds and short term instruments like treasury bills, certificates of deposit (CDs), commercial papers, bills of exchange and others.

While Exchange traded funds (ETFs) are made up of assets such as s, bonds, commodities, forex, oil, future stocks

What then is an index fund?


An index fund is a mutual fund or exchange traded fund (ETF) designed to follow predefined rules so that the fund can track the of a financial market index (a market index is a speculative portfolio of investments representing a segment of the financial market) index fund is also known as “index tracker”

Index funds follow their benchmark index independent of what happens in the market.

Why are index funds recommendable?


Index funds offer the option of immediate diversification. One purchase of index funds comes with a portfolio of diversified companies. A share of one index fund grant ownership of sometimes, hundreds of companies to a single investor. An added benefit maybe the option of enjoying dividend policy flexibility.

It has a low operating cost. Little is charged for higher benefits accruable.

The wide diversification of index fund lowers the risk for investing in it as opposed to investing in an individual stock. Although the chances of losing an investment are not completely eliminated, index fund experiences fewer fluctuations than an individual stock does.

Index fund has attractive returns. It has at least a 10 percent annual return over a long term period,

Besides benefits mentioned above, let’s find out what the world’s most successful investor, Warren Buffett, has said about index fund?

Warren Buffett’s Portfolio consists of only two investments. The first is an index fund.
Buffett recommends putting 90% in an S&P 500 index fund.


Buffett recommends that the other 10% of the portfolio go to a low cost index fund that invests in U.S. short term government bonds.
Buffett has put this simple 2-fund portfolio to good use.

https://ayietim.com/2021/07/24/is-index-fund-the-best-for-beginner-investors/
Ayietim(m): 9:32pm On Jul 22, 2021
Bide tried to wrap his ahead around what Grandpa just told him. He felt it didn’t make sense, how could the forest move.


“Grandpa, may be something very big moves among the trees?” He asked for the umpteenth time. He knew was to get the same answer.
“The forest moved Bide.” Grandpa answered in a calm patient voice Bide had grown accustomed to.


Bide and Grandpa sat on the sandy beach facing the tributary of the great sea. It was a moonlit night. Bide suddenly glanced over his shoulder at the coconut trees behind them. He had heard a movement among those trees but he wasn’t sure.


He turned to check if grandpa had heard the sound but grandpa’s gaze was on the calm water in front of them. He felt it was just his imagination. He reasoned. if there was actually the sound of any movement among those trees, grandpa would be the first to hear.


Grandpa was a fisherman. Bide had been out at sea with grandpa many nights. He had seen him smell approaching rain and dangerous sea monsters miles off.


“You’re conscious of your environment when you stop your mind from wandering.” Grandpa had told him when he asked how echolocate so effortlessly.
(Ayietim Blog)


Bide looked up at the sky. He noticed that the moon had ed the south and was now in the west. It should be 3 a.m, he guessed.


Grandpa had told him that moon followed the path created by the sun. His ten year old mind had sought to know why the moon didn’t create its own path;


“From the beginning of light, the moon has been depending on the sun for its own light. Up till now, the sun is yet to ask the moon to pay for the service. You know why? The sun knows that humans look up to the moon to stabilize the tilt of the earth to avoid climate extremes. Without the moon, seasons would vary widely as the earth’s tilt changed. If this was to happen, humans wouldn’t have fond memories to savour and festivals to celebrate. Without celebrations, humans wouldn’t appreciate the sun. Life is about celebrations.

https://ayietim.com/2021/07/22/when-the-sun-shines-on-you-reach-for-the-moon/
Ayietim(m): 1:55pm On Jul 21, 2021
Most parents exert dictatorial influence on their children’s career decision making just to live on through someone else’s life.


They try to undo life mistakes and fulfilled failed dreams through the lives of their children. This is the primary cause of many parents overbearing influence on their children’s career decision making.


In most families, such influence usually turns out to be a disservice to an innocent kid at the point of making a life time decision; especially in a career choice.

To avoid guiding your child to an unfulfilling adult life, a parent should be an observer of a xhild’s career decision making. Give wise counsel not orders.
To know where to draw the line, it’s necessary to understand qualities that separate a good parent from a bad one.


What are qualities of a good parent?

A good parent gives love unconditionally. Love is not given as a reward but as a freely. However, the love is not given without placing limits on tolerable habits.

Although it’s impossible to cover all grounds but most of these limits should be clearly spelt out well in advance. Frequent reminders should be made.

A good parent is patient. Children by their age, experience and stage of development are most times going to do things you as a parent disapprove of. When they get you upset, don’t overreeact. Be patient, seek an explanation and take the time to educate them on why a word or action can’t be tolerated.

Encourage and your child through phases and challenges. A good parent regards this as one of the top parenting duties. They use their experience, age and strong emotional intelligence to create develop dependable shoulders for their children to lean on. A child is emotionally strengthened when they realize that there’s a dependable parent waiting to be a part of their tough times.

A good parent is a role model that multi-tasks and provides strong leadership. This is important because a parent is the first agent of socialization. , the world is a social space where people look up to others for direction. So, children naturally turn to their parents first to provide leadership and mentorship.

Most parents are aware of the leadership role expected of them by their children. Regrettably, most have seized this opportunity to perpetuate themselves in that role well into a child’s adult life.

Parents in this category would want to influence their children’s career decision making. What they fail to acknowledge is that the child, now an adult, knows their strengths, weaknesses, and ions better than anyone else.

A knowledge of one’s true self, is one of the most fundamental career decision making considerations.

If the statement above is true, shouldn’t parents have little influence on their children’s career choices? After helping a child to get quality formal and informal trainings, a parent should step back. Let the child pick a career they feel would give them happiness and fulfilment in life.

A good parent doesn’t ask to live a life’s encore to the detriment of a child’s happy life. You, as a parent, wouldn’t want to be blamed for a child’s career failure. The joy of a responsible parent is to live to see their child enjoy a successful life.

So when you’re done making the biggest sacifrice humanly possible. Which is, putting your life on hold to prepare your child for a great future, move on when the child becomes an adult. Move on to something else. You’re never too old to either set bigger goals or start again.

https://ayietim.com/2021/07/21/parenting-how-to-contribute-positively-to-your-childs-career-decision-making/
Ayietim(m): 2:16pm On Jul 20, 2021
What is data storytelling?

It’s a storytelling skill that is used to break down hard to understand data to an easy to understand narrative.

A data driven storytelling is a tool for analyzing and filtering large data to present a position with a high engagement and a significant conversion rates.

What are the qualities of a good data driven storytelling?

What best defines a data driven storytelling is the speed at which a layman audience takes an action on the basis of information supplied.
For the information supplied to win new clients, data information shouldn’t just be boring numbers and analytical tools. Complex data should be explained using relatable examples. There should be a correlation between data and content (story).

Therefore, real life examples which resonate with audience should be used to work figures into a story. This is an effective way to create a data visualization that benefits the audience without them exerting too much mental energy.

2, Show a great enthusiasm about the story. If you want to evoke the desired emotion in your audience then you must feel the story deep within you and manifest that feeling.

Your audience has to see and sense your excitement and hear same in your voice to be excited too. It may be difficult to get this result if you are not ionate and comfortable with your data and visualization tools. And if you haven’t researched your audience very well.

3. Be emotional. Where the data paint a dismal picture, use your tone to convey the disappointment.

On the other hand, where your story data offer a solution; hope and belief, appropriate emotional signals should be used.

4. Create suspense by building an interesting story around your data. At the beginning, be deliberately slow while crafting the background. This is where you define your objectives to align with the audience you have.

As you begin to build your story, be a little unpredictable as much as you can to keep your audience guessing about where it’s all going.

Gradually, flesh out your characters, their locations their roles and show why all these matter to the goal of the story.

While at it, use visualization tools that enhance clarity and simplicity. The goal is always to get your audience to enroll in at the end of your story. It would be difficult to get them on-board if you get them confused.

By the time you finish a compelling narrative, most of the audience should have reached the decision to say ‘Yes’.

This is the overriding objective of using the data driven storytelling approach; to win a loyal customer because;

A loyal customer adds mouth watering values to a brand.
A returning customer is known to buy more than a first time customer. Their tendency to spend more results in increased sales revenue.

2. A loyal customer is a brand ambassador who is not on the company’s payroll. One happy and satisfied customer could be expected to come back with one more customer.

If a company had 20 new loyal and happy customers and each encouraged 20 new customers to the company’s brand loyalty family. The company would end up with 400 loyal and happy customers. An effective data driven storytelling marketing approach can make this happen because it is directed and customized.

It helps to build direct relationships with customers.

https://ayietim.com/2021/07/20/how-brands-can-use-data-driven-storytelling-for-business-expansion/
Ayietim(m): 11:55am On Jul 19, 2021
At the beginning of every relationship, it often seems that the laughter won’t stop, the joy will always go on; nothing can ever go wrong.Then the angels of love have brought you someone who will never wrong you.

Soon, the bubble bursts, the reality takes over. Your sweet angel is suddenly the devil’s messenger of Conflicts. Conflicts become frequent and the option to resolve them as many times as you could is always available.
Resolving conflicts in relationships multiple times, is the only option for those who are committed to a long term relationship.

Though resolution attempts will not always be successful but they often offer the opportunity to clear the river of dirts and debris. A young relationship is like a river flowing towards a larger body of water, the closer it gets to a bigger water, the fewer the dirts.

Conflict resolutions in relationships strengthen the bond. So, when there is a conflict in your relationship, avoid the following mistakes;

1. Don’t be defensive. Being self-opinionated and self-righteous are habits that erect walls. They are signs of pride. The “I didn’t do anything wrong” will shut your mind to reasons and the need to embrace the chance for a quick resolution.

The first step to resolving a relationship conflict is to drop your defenses and open your heart to take the blame and apologize when you realize you’re wrong.

In most conflict situations, apologizing as against holding your grounds, soften the heart and put out the fire in a surprisingly quicker way..

What’s is there to defend stubbornly without a moment to stop and think objectively?

A relationship is not a competitive sport, it’s a never ending journey made by two to find the happiness that is difficult to have without one another. A relationship is not a union between rivals. And, happiness and incessant conflicts are strange bedfellows.

2. Try not to be evasive. These words, “Let’s talk” shouldn’t remind you of an urgent meeting, an urgent work, deadlines to meet and other reasons not to find an immediate solution to a problem.

Take the bull by the horns and face it head on. Every other thing can wait while you resolve issues in your relationship. This is very important, as your relationship is the heart of a balanced life.

Evasion of an opportunity that may resolve a conflict in a relationship is dangerous. The consequence is leaving a crisis to fester, produce awkward moments and allowing the relationship to teeter on the brink of a breakup.

3. When there is a conflict, walking away from the relationship shouldn’t be the first option.
Don’t walk away without exhausting all options available to resolve the conflict.

A relationship is not a bed of roses. It’s a beautiful garden of roses but blighted here and there by occasional ugliness. The magic in relationships comes alive when humility and understanding are given space and time to turn ugliness to beauty.

4. Don’t change your personality. When there’s a conflict, you may want to change, to shape into the image that you think is expected of you by your partner. But this will be a mistake. Don”t live a lie just to keep a relationship.

A relationship is not for chameleons , it’s for real human beings who stay faithful to themselves and to their partners at all times. So, always and always be yourself. Always have it in front of you, that you were loved in the first place for who you are and not for what you are.
If you’re convinced that faking your personality is the solution, don’t forget about the worst that would happen when truth eventually triumps...

https://ayietim.com/2021/07/19/11-conflict-resolution-mistakes-in-relationships/
Ayietim(m): 9:42pm On Jul 17, 2021
…Is all down to embracing contentment, giving love unconditionally and loving who you are.


Choosing contentment over insatiability is housing your heart in a safe haven. A contented heart is not troubled by uncertainties, because its tranquility is dependent on nothing.


A contented heart asks not to receive love first. Rather it gives an unconditional love from the abundance that’s within. Love flows out naturally because it’s at peace with human imperfections. It understands that time, tenderness and love win in the long run.


And this heart loves self also. A contented heart never blames self when things go wrong but always envelopes self in positivity. Because this heart is ever conscious of the forces of life that must pull, push and give the opportunity to achieve balance.


Unfortunately many are too lost in the crowd to see the forest through the trees. They are walking in a circle going nowhere; lost in a maze of confusion. The maze of confusion is not where to find balance in life.


Until they find themselves and let contentment and love lead them, they may never achieve a balanced life.

https://ayietim.com/2021/07/17/living-a-balanced-life/
Ayietim(m): 5:26pm On Jul 16, 2021
‘The key is in not spending time but in investing it.” – Steohen R Covey.

Are you spending your time or you are investing it?

Which time management technique are you using to the increase the return on your invested time.

Time is one of the phenomena in life that humans can’t create. But we have the choice to make the best or worst use of the time we have. There is always a consequence of how we use our time.

Manage your time wisely as an investment and gain the best out of life. Alternatively, spend it as an expense on liabilities and lose it but gain regrets.

It’s rarely the choice of many to waste the gift of time on procrastination and other time wasters. It’s often a result of absent or poor knowledge of a good time management technique. People who fall easily into the trap of procrastination could extricate themselves with the help of a good time management technique called “timeboxing.”

What is timeboxing?

Timeboxing is a time management technique used to allocate fixed time period to a well thought out activity. An activity ends at the expiration of its assigned period.

If used effectively, timeboxing could prove to be a simple strategy for creating an easy to follow productive daily routine that minimizes or eliminate time wasters from your calendar.

Timeboxing allows the flexibility to adjust to contingency events.

Now, why is timeboxing a good time management strategy?

Timeboxing leads to increase in productivity; With timeboxing, it’s easy to match daily activities to time periods according to personality traits.
As a morning person, plan and build your goal oriented daily routine into the morning hours. Be honest to yourself. When you do this, it becomes difficult for you not be productive within these hours except on your off days.

2. Timeboxing your daily activities results in a gradual elimination of procrastination.

Hours which would have been lost to the unproductive habit of procrastination are invested in gainful activities.

You find yourself moving from one activity to the next activity on your daily timetable and calendar. You suddenly become aware that any period wasted could result to not meeting deadlines. And not meeting deadlines often results in not achieving set goals.

3. A level of focus is achieved;

Planning, organizing and controlling your daily activities with the aid of timeboxing, raise your level of focus.

Every activity in front of you, receives your complete attention because it has been planned for. Your focus on the task at hand hardly shifts to something else that doesn’t demand your immediate attention.

Timeboxing therefore, keeps you conscious of the time you have to complete a particular task and of the fact that when that time period is over, you have to move on to the next task.

So to give the work at hand your best, you realize that you must focus. In other words, attaining mindfulness is possible by using the time management technique of timeboxing.

4. Timeboxing is a sure path to self-discipline.

Self-discipline is a habit that requires commitment to a plan of actions and resolutions.

Timeboxing is a time management strategy that makes it possible to maintain that commitment. Sustaining this commitment over days, weeks and months takes self-discipline.

You must be disciplined because you will have to stick to the schedule regardless of how you feel emotionally and physically.

5. Timeboxing helps to reduce stress.

The stress which comes from working in high and low productive periods just to meet deadlines is reduced. This is because timeboxing allows you to break down a big task into smaller manageable sizes and attend to them in your naturally productive periods.

Given, you will definitely have days of low motivation but gains from days of high productivity will offset losses on bad days and sometimes, exceed them.

6. Timeboxing is a good time management method for scheduling breaks.

Experts recommend taking breaks between every 25 and 90 minutes. They explain that these breaks prevent decision fatigue, strengthen memories, improve productivity and are important for emotional and physical health. Timeboxing is a powerful time management tool for punctuating tasks with breaks.

This is possible because timeboxing generates a daily to-do list and attaches corresponding time periods. So, there’s enough room to consciously throw in periods of breaks that boost your level of motivation, your productivity and your health.

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