NewStats: 3,262,332 , 8,176,844 topics. Date: Sunday, 01 June 2025 at 08:12 PM 4ka

NIGERIA is in trouble economically. Therefore, those in charge at the federal, state, and local government levels should buckle down and tackle the cost-of-living crisis tormenting Nigerians.

The new numbers from the IMF graphically resonate with the misery of the populace. In its report, the IMF says Nigeria’s GDP per capita has fallen to its lowest level of $835.49 in 2025 from $877.07 in 2024, indicating a 4.74 per cent dip.

The GDP per capita is a country’s economic output per person and is calculated by dividing the GDP value of a country by its population.

Over the past decade, Nigeria’s GDP per capita has plummeted by 74.08 per cent, falling from $3,222.7 in 2014 to its current level.



This means the economy is growing at a pace not fast enough to match the rapid population growth. That is a recipe for economic disaster.

A combination of naira devaluation and soaring inflation has reduced the purchasing power of an average Nigerian. Even though the economy grew 3.46 per cent in the third quarter of 2024, most Nigerians hardly took notice because, in their personal lives, they have not seen any improvement economically speaking.

Indeed, Nigeria’s GDP per capita remains one of the lowest in Africa. Comparative data for 2025 places South Africa at $6,517.1, Morocco at $4,470.6, Tunisia at $4,396.2, Egypt at $3,160.1, Ghana at $2,189.3, and Kenya at $2,186.6.

Luxembourg, Singapore, Ireland, and Norway have the highest GDP per capita globally in the order.

These figures indicate that Nigeria is among the least economically prosperous countries in sub-Saharan Africa, falling within the lower GDP per capita bracket of $500 to $2,500.

However, the IMF projects a gradual improvement in Nigeria’s GDP per capita, expecting it to rise to $940.2 by 2026, $1,001.3 by 2029, and $1,047.08 by 2030. This is not good enough.

This slow recovery suggests Nigeria will only cross the $1,000 threshold again by 2028, far behind many of its regional and global counterparts.

Aside from the sharp fall in GDP per capita, Nigeria has also dropped from being the largest economy in Africa to the fourth position behind South Africa, Egypt, and Algeria. Nigeria’s GDP is $362.8 billion, falling from a high of $509.97 billion in 2014.

As of December 2024, Nigeria’s inflation stood at 34.88 per cent, a 30-year high. For inclusive prosperity, the inflation rate needs to drop considerably.

President Bola Tinubu has said that his government is targeting a 15 per cent inflation rate in 2025, but analysts have cautioned that it may only drop below 30 per cent. The naira exchange rate to the dollar depreciated by 40.9 per cent by December.


Tinubu, after taking over from the ineffectual President Muhammadu Buhari (2015-2023), has targeted a 6.0 per cent annual growth. He did not achieve that in 2024, and he is not likely to achieve it in 2025.

The President has also targeted an 18 per cent tax-to-GDP ratio by 2026 and a $1 trillion GDP by 2030.

Notwithstanding, the drop in per capita income largely shows Nigeria’s dwindling fortune.

Ordinarily, a large population is supposed to be an advantage because it provides a big market for domestic output. In Nigeria’s case, the population is not being used advantageously to push the economy to greater heights because of poor policies.

Tinubu has made some bold but controversial reforms. These reforms have created the current cost-of-living crisis in Nigeria. One area that he has not touched is the sheer humongous waste at the federal level that has continued to push up recurrent expenditures in the annual budgets. The cost of governance must go down.

The recurrent expenditure in the 2025 budget is N13.64 trillion. There should be concerted efforts to prune it down by taking measures to reduce the size of recurrent spending at the federal level.

The United States – the largest economy in the world with a GDP of $27 trillion – has seen the need to cut costs at the federal level by setting up the Department of Government Efficiency, headed by the richest man in the world, Elon Musk. So, it makes a lot of sense for an economic crisis-ridden Nigeria to also take steps in that direction.


The federal, state, and local governments should stop behaving as if the country is rich. The country is poor, and modesty must be reflected in expenditures to show the public that austerity is not only for the masses.

Furthermore, it is highly illogical for poor countries to increase running costs when rich countries are cutting costs.

Also, for it to be prosperous, Nigeria needs to make the states very productive. Most of the states are still dependent on federal allocations to run their budgets, which is unsustainable. A country cannot grow when the sub-national units depend on the centre and are unproductive. Nigeria will greatly benefit from a far-reaching political and economic restructuring that would make the country much more prosperous.

It is noteworthy that the initial VAT sharing formula of 20 per cent equality, 60 per cent derivation and 20 per cent population, as proposed by the Presidential Tax Reform Committee in the tax reform bills, was rejected by governors for a revised VAT sharing formula of 50 per cent based on equality, 30 per cent based on derivation, and 20 per cent based on population.

However, Nigeria needs to quickly get to a level where those who produce more get more or a fair share as an incentive for productivity and engendering healthy competition among the federating units rather than a dependency mentality.

Efforts must be increased to reduce the country’s dependence on imports, while corruption in government offices must be reined.

Although the economic situation is dire, and most Nigerians live from hand to mouth, it has not been all doom and gloom for the country.


First, the crude refining sub-sector of the oil industry is growing substantially as the Dangote Refinery says it will ramp up production to a full capacity of 650,000 barrels per day in a few months.

With the Port Harcourt and Warri refineries coming on stream, it is envisaged that the crude refining sector will continue to expand, and exports from the refineries will continue to earn Nigeria some much-needed foreign exchange to bolster the economy.

There has also been an increase in Nigeria’s oil production. The latest Monthly Oil Market Report of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries shows that Nigeria’s crude oil production rose above 1.5 million bpd in January.

According to the report, Nigeria produced an average of 1,539,000 bpd in January, slightly higher than the 1,485,000-bpd recorded in December.

With the rising oil production, there will be more inflow of foreign exchange, which should shore up the country’s external reserves and strengthen the naira.

The government should work hard to reduce inflation in 2025 and strengthen the naira.

The Nigerian Economic Summit Group has forecast naira appreciation and a reduction in inflation in 2025, provided the government implements effective stabilisation measures.


https://punchng.com/nigerias-shrinking-gdp-per-capita/

The Nigerian Economic Summit Group has forecast naira appreciation and a reduction in inflation in 2025, provided the government implements effective stabilisation measures.

Punch, you are the one in trouble with your sensational article

The reforms and policies are what?

helinues:


Punch, you are the one in trouble with your sensational article

The reforms and policies are what?

Is the GDP shrinking or not you dummy?

TUANKU:

Is the GDP shrinking or not you dummy?

Stop commenting like a toddler

helinues:


Stop commenting like a toddler

Okay. Please answer this simple question, is the Nigerian GDP shrinking as alleged by Punch Newspapers or not?
Brain-dead stupid ethnic bigot like you.

TUANKU:

Okay. Please answer this simple question, is the Nigerian GDP shrinking as alleged by Punch Newspapers or not?
Brain-dead stupid ethnic bigot like you.

As alleged? So you expect me to waste my time in responding to allegations without substantial evidence?

helinues:


As alleged? So you expect me to waste my time in responding to allegations without substantial evidence?

Without substantial evidence? Olodo there is evidence everywhere, even the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics which is a government agency post the evidence, you can visit their website to confirm... but do i expect a dummy like you to know all these? Definitely not, the brain of a bigot like you can't process such information, you are to dull for that so instead you settle for ethnic bigotry and spreading falsehood.
You are lower than a Ekuke walahi. Proper scum of the earth

TUANKU:

Without substantial evidence? Olodo there is evidence everywhere, even the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics which is a government agency post the evidence, you can visit their website to confirm... but do i expect a dummy like you to know all these? Definitely not, the brain of a bigot like you can't process such information, you are to dull for that so instead you settle for ethnic bigotry and spreading falsehood.
You are lower than a Ekuke walahi. Proper scum of the earth

You are not yet mature to engage others publicly. Return back to your village discussion to learn properly

Money is not flowing through the economy. Tinubu must eliminate the bottlenecks, middlemen, and rent-seekers obstructing its circulation; otherwise, his efforts will be in vain.

You defended Buhari's failures vehemently for 8yrs. You have transferred that appalling to Tinubu’s ineptitude

helinues:


Punch, you are the one in trouble with your sensational article

The reforms and policies are what?

ValarDoharis:
You defended Buhari's failures vehemently for 8yrs. You have transferred that appalling to Tinubu’s ineptitude

Who is this!

STFU! Accept what you did! Always ing failures

helinues:


Who is this!

ValarDoharis:
STFU! Accept what you did! Always ing failures

Hahaha, what's your definition of ing failures?

Do you have records of ing anything on this forum that came close to reality?

Who could have believed buhari is better than the drug baron and the greatest man from agbado nation, tinubu policies re not working, doing legitimate business in Nigeria now is more risky than doing illegitimate ones.

Beerfraud..

Na IGBO cause am abi?

Anyway..the same propaganda newspaper called Punch campaigned and ed Buhari and TINUBU against Jonathan.

So all these Yoruba news editorial should be sent directly to TILUMBU

Nonsense

You ed Buhari, he destroyed the economy. You're ing Tinubu to finally bury the economy!

helinues:


Hahaha, what's your definition of ing failures?

Do you have records of ing anything on this forum that came close to reality?

For the umpteenth time, Mr Tinubu can still pilfer the countries commonwealth without distorting its economy by simply sacking the CBN governor and Wale Edun.

Things concerning our finances should be sacred. Using vital aspects of the economy to reward the boys is unwise.

Two things stood out from Punch’s report… we wouldn’t cross the $1000 per capita mark until 2028, also FG spending has soared amidst the economic downturn.

Economics is a science meaning its objective; right formula, right variables, right parameters, right answers anything short is self deception.

helinues:


Hahaha, what's your definition of ing failures?

Do you have records of ing anything on this forum that came close to reality?

Good morning Tomb raider

It's working out the way they planned it...they have successfully reduced purchasing power and turned poverty to a weapon of mass destruction

Tinubu has reduced Nigerians to destitute. Imagine to fall from $3000+ to $800 GDP. Even Ghana has over $2000 GDP while Nigeria is only a measly $800.

If people do not shun tribalism and religious sentiments and vote out this old fool, Nigeria may eventually become worse than Yemen, South Sudan and Burundi. A country where almost everyone is struggling to eat, pay rent and other basic needs is a failed country.

With all of these retrogression, I still wonder how a human being with even the a slight sprinkle of sense would still keep ing and defending these failures. These people are set out to bury this country, while calling themselves patriots.

helinues:


Punch, you are the one in trouble with your sensational article

The reforms and policies are what?

Does Punch knows whether this docile nitwit exist?

What an inconsequential numbskull with no known existential value!

Everything about Government in Nigeria is not working
Federal, State and Local level is not working.

snowball11:


Does Punch knows whether this docile nitwit exist?

What an inconsequential numbskull with no known existential value!

Even the man responsible for his pregnancy does not know he exists.

Under Yoruba president

It's an open secret...

Only sick westerners don't agree...

APC just ruined Nigeria and some will be here praising them.

stonemasonn:
Money is not flowing through the economy. Tinubu must eliminate the bottlenecks, middlemen, and rent-seekers obstructing its circulation; otherwise, his efforts will be in vain.

The purchasing power is weak he can't achieve much ,though its not his intention to do anything for the people anyways
He has achieved and even sur the target he set for himself, which is generate more funds for himself and his friends to fund their lavish life style
This is reflected in his bogus ministers and aides,increase allocation to national assembly, increase revenue shared to state governors
Purchase of yacht, big aeroplane, big expensive limousine for himself and wife
Exquisite residence for his vice e.t.c
These are his priorities and he has achieved them using his policies which though is poisonous to the people it is sweet to him and his gang
If the people wants to partake in the good of the land too, they should stop voting on sentiments but on the bases of who love and care about them