NewStats: 3,262,881 , 8,178,452 topics. Date: Tuesday, 03 June 2025 at 10:16 PM 311r51

THE outlook for Nigeria’s oil output, including condensate, remains gloomy at 1.4 million barrels per day, mbpd, in the second half of 2024, according to industry data and forecast.


The output forecast is far below the 1.8mbpd quota given to Nigeria by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, as well as the 1.7mbpd stated as 2024 budget benchmark by the Federal Government.


This indicates oil revenue shortfall of about N1 trillion against the 2024 budgetary expectations.

The data obtained from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, NUPRC, June 2024 report – Crude Oil and Condensate Production – indicated that on month-on-month, MoM, the nation’s oil output, excluding Condensate dropped by 2.3 per cent to 1.25 million bpd in June 2024, from 1.28 million bpd in April 2024.

The data indicated that the nation’s oil output continued its downward trend from January 2024 when it recorded 1.6 million bpd, before falling to 1.5 million bpd, 1.4 million bpd and 1.3 million bpd in February, March and April 2024, respectively.

Since then, the NUPRC’s report indicated that the output has not recovered as it hovered at 1.3 million bpd and 1.4 million bpd in April and May 2024, respectively.

OPEC disclosed that Nigeria’s oil output, excluding Condensate, remained flat at 1.2 million bpd in May 2024 and 1.2 million bpd, in April 2024.

In its June 2024 Monthly Oil Market Report, MOMR, obtained by Financial Vanguard, OPEC noted that the data were based on information obtained from direct or official sources.

But when secondary sources were considered, OPEC put Nigeria’s oil output in May 2024, at 1.4 million bpd, excluding Condensate.


Similarly, there are indications that oil exploration, which culminates in production also dropped month-on-month, MoM, by 15.8 per cent, in May 2024, due mainly to limited investment.


The latest Monthly Oil Market Report of the OPEC indicated that the nation’s rig count, a major indicator of upstream activities, declined to 16 in May 2024, from 19 in April 2024.

Although OPEC did not provide factors responsible for the development, checks by Financial Vanguard pointed to limited production activities in Nigeria during the period.

Outlook not looking bright – Zakka

In a telephone interview with Financial Vanguard, an energy expert, Dr. Bala Zakka, said: “The outlook does not look bright in the short and medium term because the facts are there. For instance, the rig count, an index of measuring activities have not been rising, but falling.


“Every day, my colleagues and I in Nigeria and other parts of the world discuss this and other issues. The conclusion we have does not point towards the possible high oil output in the second half of 2024.”

Similarly, an energy analyst, who pleaded to be anonymous, said: “Nigeria might not still be able to meet its output targets in the remaining part of the year. This would likely impact negatively on the budget.”

Nigeria need to reduce, end oil theft – Ayuk

On his part, NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber, stated: “When you take a look at the African Energy Chamber’s Nigeria’s month-on-month output so far in 2024 you can predict on second half of 2024, H2’24, forecast. In the short term, the forecast might not be so volatile or declining that we need some efforts to stabilize the production. For Nigeria, it would be making sure that oil theft is minimised, no pipeline vandalism/sabotages happen and infrastructure damages are avoided so as to rule out any steep drops in the monthly output.

“In the longer term, however, Nigeria can go into a terminal decline similar to Angola if the existing issues are not sorted out.


‘‘It is true that indigenous players will play a much bigger role in the onshore/swamp/shallow water regions as International Oil Companies, IOCs, continue to divest. But any obstructions to oil flows in the Niger Delta due to any damages to infrastructure should be avoided and oil theft minimized.

“It remains interesting to see the scale of development these (relatively) smaller players can bring as opposed to some of these blocks lying dormant with IOCs. ‘‘Production trend reversal, however, is largely dependent on the deepwater finds where majors are still present and the istration will need to facilitate better business and economic environment for the majors to bring these finds onto the drawing board in Nigeria’’.

We can produce more with 37bn oil reserves – Iledare

Wumi Iledare, Professor Emeritus in Petroleum Economics, said: “We have 37 billion barrels of reserves. The operators are competent and with improved and proper implementation of PIA 2021 as well as transparency, ability, and good governance, it should be possible to increase oil output.”

Minister of Energy, not President to drive industry – Agbakoba


In an interview with Financial Vanguard, a senior lawyer and Human Rights Activist, Dr. Olisa Agbakoba, said: “We need a transformational new oil and gas policy that is able, transparent and focuses on development and building the nation and its people but most importantly moving away from the policy of contract oil to development oil where an active Minister of Energy and not the President drives hydrocarbon policy.

“We must put an end and create a transition for the IOCs to become service providers of oil revenue and not partners which contradicts section 44 of the constitution that gives Nigerians sovereignty over all its natural resources.

”The IOCs have no interest in Nigeria other than profit in oil. New thinking is required to enable our long-suffering Nigerians, especially in the Niger Delta, feel the impact of oil. We have 37 billion barrels of proven reserves of oil. We cannot and shouldn’t be in this terrible condition.”

We can produce 2m bpd – NNPC

However, the Group CEO, NNPC Limited, Mallam Mele Kyari, said with Nigeria’s current assets, the industry can produce two million bpd.


He said: “We went down in our production of oil and gas, nowhere near our capacity or our capability. We can blame anything, oil theft, integrity, divestments and so forth.”

The Minister of Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, noted that the immediate and long-term economic prosperity of Nigeria depended on increased production that would allow the country to meet domestic demands for crude oil and gas, and for export to earn foreign exchange.

Divestment to boost oil output – Komolafe

However, the Commission Chief Executive, Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Engr. Gbenga Komolafe, said as a business enabler, the NUPRC has taken bold steps to complete assets divestments to boost oil and gas investment and production.

He said: “The NAOC-Oando divestment has been concluded the g ceremony will come up any moment.


“The Eqioner – Project Odinmim project divestment was also completed. For the SPDC–Renaissance deals, documents have been submitted. Those documents are undergoing due diligence as we speak.

“And for us in Nigeria, our deep offshore s for 43% of our total oil reserve. Also, our total international oil production, our deep offshore s for 30% of our daily production. And of the total world development, the deep offshore contributes 60% of the entire world. So the impact of this is that our deep offshore in Nigeria is very, very proficient, very prolific.”

Speaking on future developments and opportunities in Nigeria’s deep-water sector, Engr. Komolafe highlighted that projects such as OML 145 – Nsiko field and OML 118 – Bonga Southwest/Aparo field present substantial investment opportunities. These matured fields and new field developments are expected to yield significant oil recovery.

According to him, Nigeria’s reserves and production distribution cut across different terrains, emphasizing the potential for offshore and deep offshore fields.

Komolafe pointed out that the 2024 Licensing Round, scheduled from May to December 2024, is expected to further boost investment with 31 blocks available for bidding, thus providing Nigeria with additional oil and gas assets to boost output in the coming years.

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2024/07/economy-faces-threats-with-1-4m-bpd-crude-output/

That is Tompolo doing to protect the oil pipelines. Because the rate of oil theft is alarming these days in all oil producing community

They refused to diversify and instead probed for more oil as diversification strategy. Today agbado+cassava remains elusive despite abundant idle and willing hands to cultivate them. Corruption spares nothing.
A point may be reached each village is allocated their own few drums of oil to go and refine with firewood.

Where are the 50 million youths tinubu promised to recruit into Nigerian army

Tinubu na cruise...
Using his fellow agbadorians to catch cruise.
Now ebi want kill them

It's really happening.

Hmmmmmm

Tinubu’s economic policy plans are unrealistic, petty, vindictive and a throw-back to the days of depression.

How can you tax a poor economy to get rich because of excessive government spendings that should be curbed?

The removal of fuel subsidy is the cause of this economic collapse. Tinubu’s economic advisers are also not smart. The Naira is failing despite all the interventions. If Nigeria was china, all the ministers will be shot at sight! Nonsense

Edmos:
That is Tompolo doing to protect the oil pipelines. Because the rate of oil theft is alarming these days in all oil producing community

What is the FG using oil money to do that you don't want the people to steal the oil and make their life better?

What difference is Nigeria with or without oil? Ain't we a poor country? Is our people not hungry and suffering? FG should go sit their ass somewhere, please.

Any update about ending crude oil theft? ??

Clueless government

The 3 major problem of Nigeria:
APC - Grossly incompetent and directionless
NNPC - Extremely corrupt and incompetent
Fulani- Responsible for terrorism and food crisis

Oil majors and IOCs are having a field day with our Oil and Gas because of the gross incompetence and extreme corruption of the NNPC. Huge portion of the daily production goes un-metered and unrecorded.

if you are waiting for it to get better you are wasting your time.
It won't not even in the near future.
This country is far gone.

Massive oil container ships enter Nigeria, berth at port at deep water, siphon fuel over days, and leisurely sail away without anyone supposedly knowing.

We've radar, sonar, cameras, drones, helicopters, FLIR, jets, Navy, Army, Air force, Nimasa, 3PP firms, civil defense, special forces, coast guard, DSS, NIA, DIA, NSA, EFCC, IC, community watches...but no one sees these hulking big ships coming in and out to steal oil in millions of barrels.

And in the rare occasion someone does capture one, someone "at the top" makes a call and the cargo is released to go on its merry way with the loot.

And no one...no one...is held able.

This country is not a joke: it's a tragedy on a monumental scale.

I hope these T-bills they've been sharing won't become a high risk asset very soon.

Toh

helinues:
Toh

Toh
Total
opportunity
hopeless.

iwaeda:

Toh
Total
opportunity
hopeless.

Is that your current predicament Mr How much is?

iwaeda:

Toh
Total
opportunity
hopeless.

Trait of Holigan

laivwire:
I hope these T-bills they've been sharing won't become a high risk asset very soon.

Every instrument in Nigeria now is a very high risk endeavour storting from the naira

More threat you mean cos it's already in limbo.

nothing dey ever work for this country!!!

Tinubu is a gigantic failure

Nigeria produces 1.8+ mbpd. 4+mbpd gets stolen and the revenues ends up in the pockets of criminals in leadership.

I refuse to accept that 9ja doesn't meet her OPEC quota.

We produce more
Just stop the bunkering

COMRADES, before the disastrous arrival of Tinubu everything was working perfectly

Tinubu is a course for you and I

jaxin119:
The 3 major problem of Nigeria:
APC - Grossly incompetent and directionless
NNPC - Extremely corrupt and incompetent
Fulani- Responsible for terrorism and food crisis

Oil majors and IOCs are having a field day with our Oil and Gas because of the gross incompetence and extreme corruption of the NNPC. Huge portion of the daily production goes un-metered and unrecorded.

Massive oil container ships enter Nigeria, berth at port at deep water, siphon fuel over days, and leisurely sail away without anyone supposedly knowing.

We've radar, sonar, cameras, drones, helicopters, FLIR, jets, Navy, Army, Air force, Nimasa, 3PP firms, civil defense, special forces, coast guard, DSS, NIA, DIA, NSA, EFCC, IC, community watches...but no one sees these hulking big ships coming in and out to steal oil in millions of barrels.

And in the rare occasion someone does capture one, someone "at the top" makes a call and the cargo is released to go on its merry way with the loot.

And no one...no one...is held able.

This country is not a joke: it's a tragedy on a monumental scale.

The corruption in NNPCL and armed forces is astronomical. National security adviser is a buffon.