NewStats: 3,265,222 , 8,186,065 topics. Date: Friday, 13 June 2025 at 11:04 PM 4p5921

RodgersAkpafu:


They have fixed the issue
That was the case earlier this year, and I had to "paara" for them sometime in February

But they have repented and fixed the bug
At least in my own experience.

Was the extra cost refunded?

Agbalowomeri:


Yes just be ready for Wale's type forward looking statements forever

Remove bolded.. in 5 years max there'll be huge results

Mankind2024:
@ Pa Emmanuel,
You are free to submit your views on Ellah Lake. I follow the simplicity of investment. The motivation for drafting this letter was to convey to Mr Chuka Mordi that we are not naive. How could an integrated farm declare N18M revenue without specifying the source?
In my personal income filing, the taxman always seeks to understand how I arrived at profit and loss. I would have tolerated the non-transparent report if Chuka Mordi had highlighted revenue from specific sources like Telluria farm acquisition, piggery, fishery, cassava, soya beans, and rice plantation. Instead, 50% of the report focused on audio Biological and goodwill assets, which I consider intangible assets. He emphasised on ongoing new private placement without addressing our expectation on palm oil production which he previously promised would begin in Q1 2025.

Notably, financial reports from Okomu Oil and Presco don't emphasise goodwill assets like this.
The financial report lacks transparency. My concern isn't driven by capital erosion, as my 2.5M shares in Ellah Lake constitute less than 0.2% of my NGX portfolio. I'm willing to write it off until Chuka Mordi delists his company.

My findings suggest Chuka Mordi has connections with CBO Capital, Telluria Farm, and Oko Lake. He previously worked with FCMB and Union Dicon Salt. It appears he's on a mission to undermine Ellah Lake's fishery legacy, similar to his actions at Union Dicon Salt.
https://businessday.ng/interview/article/chuka-mordi-on-ellah-lakes-5-year-plan-to-becoming-a-billion-dollar-company/

https://businessday.ng/companies/article/ellah-lakes-says-on-path-of-shareholder-value-creation/

Na wa. All others on the board are in coma? Seems to me you arrogate absolute power to chuka

emmanuelewumi:



I have found out that people are very emotional about the stock, so I will respect myself and not write about the stock

It is okay.
There are some stocks classified as JOKER stocks.
They always generate alot of arguments and bashings.
Like a Joker in a card game, it goes your way Bingoooooooo
If not,, Checkmate.

Popular Joker stocks on Nsempa - Oando, EllahLakes
Though, I have 500k units on Ellahlakes and understand the risk involved.

KarlTom:
Seems we're now on breastville 🤔

When is Oando going to distribute our shares to us? This month is about to end yet no share redistribution insight

emmaodet:


Have gone through their financial report quickly and noticed they burn roughly 400m per quarter in free cash flow.
200m plus to operate the business (operating cash flow) and another roughly 200m in capital expenditure.
Plus or minus, they will be using 1b per year to run the farm pending when it will start generating meaningful revenue.
current OS is 3.86b

nice TLDR summary, well done ! The burn rate is within expected range. Would be averaging down when tashere change enter hand.

thebargainhunte:
When is Oando going to distribute our shares to us? This month is about to end yet no share redistribution insight

Even Wale might not have answers to this question?

megawealth01:


AGM DATE: June 19, NPF MFB (AGM) at Hajia Maryam M.D Abubakar Power Secretariat and Multipurpose Hall, Oduduwa Street (Mopol 20), Ikeja, Lagos......11am. Prop Div.....15k, PD....June 19, QD.....May 28, CDR.....May 29-30. Reg; Registrar: Cardinalstone

Thanks.

Locotrader:


You have a cash of 23m at the moment and you want me to believe you are starting production in 2025.
Anyway I sense raising of additional funds here.

If this talk can bring good fortunes for Ellah shareholders,my brother cash is always loaded in my stock .

Allow us to see the truth in Ellah now.The more we discuss about Ellah,the better for you and other shareholders

Loco, Deepseek's conclusion on Ellah Lakes:
**Investors should avoid until the company demonstrates sustainable profitability and improved liquidity.**

Prompt:
Give me a full financial and investment analysis of this attached financial report, Ellah Lakes, Cover income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, profitability, liquidity, solvency, and valuation ratios. Compare it with industry benchmarks and historical performance. Conclude with a buy, sell, or hold recommendation, with clear reasoning.
Include recent corporate actions or capital raises.
Assess dividend sustainability.
Factor in macroeconomic risks like FX and inflation.
Include chart patterns or breakout signals if possible.

NB: Anyone can use a similar prompt on any AI platform and dig deeper. If you want use biased prompts to raise your hope further...
Everyone is the CEO of his portfolio

thebargainhunte:
When is Oando going to distribute our shares to us? This month is about to end yet no share redistribution insight

I want to position for tranche 2. Do you when it's due? Though it's shocking to hear thAt tranche 1 is yet to be credited.

Locotrader:
Imagine Loco that is known for buying junk stocks as supposed by some of our see Ellah and run away.

At least you can see a fresh breast in all Loco's stock.

As beautiful as Ellah and very mature,where is her breast?

It appears breast is your new obsession.

Just an observation.

@Mankind2024 - To avoid needless repetitive post, please have a quick read of my previous opinion on Ellah. Revenue is from sale of palm fruits ONLY , and unfortunately, until O mill is completed.
@HesInMe - N780k @ FYE '24 vs N18M @ 6mths '25 is a red flag?
@Locotrader - Qtrly report is not due until later this month. It is for the period ended April 2025.
@To whom it may concern - In my opinion, revenue for the qtr ended April is your cue. Q1 N280k, Q2 N18M, Q3 ?? Plus what would the balance sheet look like after the recent loan/debt to equity conversion of N3.1B?

Please do not BUY, HOLD or SELL based on my posts.

Omooloriredade:


Post is not to convince anyone to invest. Just my opinion.

I strive to understand the business or operations of a company before I buy their stock.

You know how Dangote has a big refinery but relies on others for the feedstock (crude)? Imagine if Dangote has producing fields that could provide the feedstock for his refinery. Procurement costs will probably be lower and operations will be much more efficient leading to improved margins in the refinery business (that is, Aradel on steroids).

Now think of Presco and Okomu as refineries with producing fields. They operate a refinery (O mill) but also own farms that supply the feedstock (Fresh Fruit Bunches). Also, as a matter of fact, they rely on local farmers for supplementary feedstock supply too. Note this point as I'll come back to it later.

Traditionally, you start with the farm which takes time to mature. In the mean time, you build your refinery (O mill) and infrastructure.
Ellah Lakes is doing all of these. They are due to complete their refinery 9O mill) Q1 CY25 according to management. I must acknowledge this milestone should have been achieved last year.....so it's crucial they don't miss this target again. Ellah Lakes does not need to wait for fruits to mature to start producing palm oil. Once the refinery is completed, they will source the feedstock (FFBs) from local farmers.

my Dangote refinery analogy? So to assume they won't generate any revenue for another 5 to 8 years just demonstrates a lack of understanding of the industry. It's not about when they reach peak production as such. It's about firing up the O mill, securing supply of FFBs from local farmers and it's happy days for everyone.

By the way, Ellah Lakes sold N780k worth of Palm fruits as at FYE 24. You can expect sales to increase from here on but hopefully not from selling off FFBs that should otherwise be processed if O mill was completed. Already at N249k (Q1 25) from sales of Palm fruits only. Management intends to commence Oil production in H1 25 which is already upon us. O mill is optimally positioned where the farms are concentrated.

Personally, I focus on the operations that drive the numbers others want to see. So disregarding other lines of production (Piggery and other cash crops but follow the money on that Piggery o). This is what operations would look like going forward:

> Complete O mill (criticial milestone)
> Negotiate and secure supply of FFBs from local farmers (Competitive but crucial to success and can be done before previous step).
> No need to sell your own FFBs either. They can now maximise value from processing them.
> Process FFBs into Palm oil
> Commence sales of Palm oil
> Sell off Palm Kernel fruits
> Acquire Palm kernel mill and start palm kernel oil production and cake etc
> Commence sales of Palm kernel oil etc
> Crops mature and produce feedstock for the mill leading to increased margins.
> Expand milling capacity and acquire more acreage for long term growth.

Why is there sudden increased trading activity? My theory is that the market is positioning to see if Management's target will be achieved. Forecast was for O mill commissioning by Jan - Feb 2025, then production commences immediately after.

Hey! Please note that I am not an Agric expert neither am I an investment advisor.

zendi:
I want to position for tranche 2. Do you when it's due? Though it's shocking to hear thAt tranche 1 is yet to be credited.

QD June 30

My watchlist for the Nigerian equity space this week.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m9rtKmfImRg

Harvestock01:


QD June 30

Qualification date June 30, for Oando tranche 2.

Okay, thanks.

https://guardian.ng/business-services/maritime/nnpc-diversifies-as-stena-bulk-caverton-unite-to-birth-unity-shipping/
Our CAVERTON

megawealth01:


Even Wale might not have answers to this question?

Choi! What a game

zendi:
Qualification date June 30, for Oando tranche 2.

Okay, thanks.

Is there hope in Oando? It seems you are still buying it.

HesInMe:
Ol' boy. Dis kain financial report.

Revenue of 2Q ending Jan 2025 is much larger than for the year to Jan 2025. Cash flow reported only for period till July 2024 vs. 2023 (typo?).

And I thought Chams was bad. After seeing Ellah, I owe Chams an apology.

Repeat after me: There is fire on the mountain...

My 2 cents based on the Q2 2025 unaudited financial statements of Ellah Lakes Plc:

1. Reasons Given for Slow Growth

- Immature Biological Assets: The management has clearly indicated that they are waiting for their palm plantation to enter maturity. This is consistent with the steady build-up of biological assets, primarily in palm plantations and livestock, which have not yet begun generating meaningful revenue.

- Minimal Revenue Base: For the 6 months ended 31 Jan 2025, revenue was only ₦18.97 million. This suggests the company is still in a pre-revenue or early-revenue phase.

- High Cost Structure Without Corresponding Income:

I - istrative expenses: ₦171 million

II - Personnel expenses: ₦220 million

III - Finance costs: ₦13 million

These are substantial relative to revenue, contributing to the ₦396.6 million loss for the period.

- Ongoing Deleveraging and Capital Raising: The company notes a recent private placement following a rights issue aimed at deleveraging.

2. Biological Assets Breakdown
As of 31 Jan 2025:

- Palm Plantations: ₦583.8 million (75%)

- Livestock: ₦195.5 million (25%)

- Total Biological Assets: ₦779.3 million

There was no fair value gain recognized this quarter, indicating either stable valuations or absence of revaluation activity.

3. Indicative Fair Value Per Share Estimate (Conservative View)

Approach: Net Asset Value (NAV) Basis
- Equity (NAV): ₦19.95 billion

- Shares Outstanding: 2,753,786,788

- NAV per Share = ₦19.95bn / 2.75bn ≈ ₦7.24

Adjustments & Considerations:

Revaluation Surplus of ₦14.9 billion is mostly non-cash (e.g., land), and should be discounted if you're pricing based on tangible or near-term earnings potential.

Stripping Revaluation:

Adjusted NAV = ₦19.95bn - ₦14.93bn = ₦5.02bn

Adjusted NAV/share ≈ ₦1.82

Current Fair Value Range

Optimistic (incl. land revaluation): ₦7.24

Conservative (excl. land revaluation): ₦1.82

Given the early stage of biological asset maturity, persistent operating losses, and lack of current revenue traction, a fair valuation range is likely between ₦1.50 and ₦2.50 per share in the near term until the plantations reach maturity and generate cash flows.

However, if they reach maturity by 2026, expect the following:
Fair Value Range (Post-Maturity)

Scenario Fair Value
- Conservative (DCF + buffer for delays/risks) ₦5.50 – ₦6.50
- Base Case (as projected) ₦7.52
- Optimistic (higher O prices or yield) ₦9.00 – ₦10.00+

My View:
A ₦6.00 – ₦7.50/share range is a reasonable base case 1 year from now, assuming no major execution failure. The upside is capped by ongoing operational inefficiencies and the need to manage scaling.

I didn't want post to be long hence why i summarised, but if you need my assumptions I am happy to post a follow up. Happy Sunday

Locotrader:
Our review on Ellah lakes will go viral this weekend.
I believe their will be press lease next week by the mgt.
This is the only way we can help ourselves not praising a company you don't know the plans they have for shareholders and shareholders are holding unto palm trees and fruits as okomu and presco are known for that.

Why is okomu and presco not practicing digital Agriculture

Audio and real are not same.Let them release corporate announcements on their farms let's review and know our stand on it.

One of the cheapest stock tempting investors at the floor now is Ellah lakes but traders are the one to use it and dump while my brother Nosa is having an investment mind.

Just did a quick check, Presco and Okumu both did over 20bn in revenues as at 2017. So I do not know what excuse Ellah has. They bought Telluria in 2019. Oil palm matures in 5-7 years. So it should have matured by now all things being equal. Their next financial result will be very important.

https://nairametrics.com/2025/02/07/top-10-nigerian-stockbrokers-for-january-2025-based-on-trading-value/

Which is better for in-house fix bills (smaller than 50 m funds for t-bills)
Stanbic ibtc or Cardinal Stone investment firms

emmaodet:


Have gone through their financial report quickly and noticed they burn roughly 400m per quarter in free cash flow.
200m plus to operate the business (operating cash flow) and another roughly 200m in capital expenditure.
Plus or minus, they will be using 1b per year to run the farm pending when it will start generating meaningful revenue.
current OS is 3.86b
Cash at hand as at 31st jan, 2025 was 23m
current assets is about 25b that can be converted to cash to run the biz within a year.
Given it will take another 3 years before Ellah lake will be generating enough revenue to finance itself,
They may likely have to raise atleast 3b more to do that PROVIDED they couldn't convert their current assets to cash to do that.
That will dilute the shares about 100% more, probably seeing the price go down to #1.5/shares before experiencing price appreciation we are anticipating.
We will see how the management run the biz on quarterly basis

You're right. Part of the initial analysis i had to cut short. Summary is:
1. Operating Cash Flow
Net cash from operating activities: ₦650.3 million

Driven by:

- Loss before tax: ₦(344.2) million

- Depreciation: ₦11.1 million (non-cash)

- Huge increase in payables: ₦990.96 million

- Modest decrease in receivables: ₦2.89 million

Observation: The positive operating cash flow is not from operating efficiency or revenues (₦18.9m revenue is negligible), but mainly from growing unpaid obligations (payables). This is not sustainable and reflects pressure on liquidity.

2. Investing Cash Flow
- Outflow: ₦683k only

Represents minor capital expenditure, likely maintenance or asset upgrades.

Observation: [/b]Very limited investment in fixed assets, which aligns with their claim of already planting palm and just waiting for maturity.

[b]3. Financing Cash Flow
- Net outflow: ₦48 million

No equity raise or inflow during the period

Represents reduction in borrowings (especially SPUD and Octerra Capital)

Observation: The company is quietly paying down debt without new financing inflows. That shows intentional deleveraging, which s management's claim of a post-rights issue cleanup.

4. Cash Position
- Closing cash balance: ₦23.1 million

- Opening balance: ₦308.1 million

- Net cash decrease: ₦285 million

Observation: Despite reporting ₦650 million in operating cash flow, the actual bank balance is down by over 90%, suggesting:

- Timing differences

- Possibly some non-disclosed or misclassified cash movement

- Reliance on short-term liabilities to fund operations

Conclusion (My Opinion o):
- Cash flow from operations is artificially positive, sustained by growing unpaid liabilities. This is not indicative of a business generating true internal cash flow.

- No real revenue traction means the current cash burn is being deferred, not eliminated.

- Debt is being quietly reduced, which is commendable, but needs equity backing or real income soon.

- The extremely low cash reserve (₦23m) is a red flag if maturity is delayed beyond 12 months.

- Unless the plantations start yielding within the next 9–12 months, the business will likely need to raise additional capital or renegotiate debts to avoid a cash crunch.

thebargainhunte:

Is there hope in Oando? It seems you are still buying it.

Conoco Philips
Agip assets
Angola deal
Trinidad Refinery
Trading arm
Power plants

Oando is not Ellah.
These assets are not
all audio.

Let us see the Q1 Result, then continue praying that crude oil stays above 60$.

cocolacec:
Conoil

Not same as the listed company

thebargainhunte:
https://guardian.ng/business-services/maritime/nnpc-diversifies-as-stena-bulk-caverton-unite-to-birth-unity-shipping/
Our CAVERTON

I guess this has been in the works for a long time. Let's see how this impacts Caverton's business.

Who are the people doing the big volumes in Access Bank everyday?

Bigdeal01:


I guess this has been in the works for a long time. Let's see how this impacts Caverton's business.

Someone posted the news some months ago here. Presently, Nigerian government is trying to tap into our blue economy so I foresee a positive outcome in their business.

thebargainhunte:

Is there hope in Oando? It seems you are still buying it.

For the sake of people who have tried so hard to be objective on ellahlakes, based on my friend seen n confirmed, ellahlakes 75-80% of ellahlakes palm are at fruiting level.

This doesn't mean you should buy hold or sell.

Mind you the visitation was very recent.


Happy weekend.

Is this a threat?

Locotrader:


Be careful in quoting me on breast so you don't get banned

crownprince2017:
For the sake of people who have tried so hard to be objective on ellahlakes, based on my friend seen n confirmed, ellahlakes 75-80% of ellahlakes palm are at fruiting level.

This doesn't mean you should buy hold or sell.

Mind you the visitation was very recent.


Happy weekend.

Thanks for this. Do you have pictures?