NewStats: 3,262,574 , 8,177,560 topics. Date: Monday, 02 June 2025 at 07:53 PM 42406a

ositadima1:
Most of the revenue/profit growth you folks are celebrating—I've read how Agba is praising the heavy returns in the consumer sector—I have just one question: Have you converted those returns to dollars and compared them with previous years’ returns using the exchange rates of those times? Which one do you think is better?

To me, it looks like we're seeing more money that’s worth much less.

And before anyone launches an attack saying “we spend in naira,” let me ask: how many made-in-Nigeria items do you actually own, aside from a few consumables?

It’s actually quite funny. Someone who used to earn ₦20 million a year before the Tinubu and Buhari istrations could afford a decent car and still live comfortably. Today, that same ₦20 million might only buy a car—if your taste isn’t even that high.

So, Brother EmmaOdet, while you’re sharing all this profitability news, please do us a favour: convert the figures to dollars—using the old rate (below ₦700) and the current rate (around ₦1,600)—so we can make a more meaningful comparison.

Thank you.

You are looking at it from the street perspective
I am looking at it from an NGX trading/investing perspective
Whatever the street value of the profit is, some of these companies will deliver over 100% upside in price
It means you can easily double your money, irrespective of dollar or naira value; at least let's hope the naira value remains stable for this year

Payunsin:
Loco chams is crazy oo. Na joke oo
I panicked sold some at N1.99 it's now trading at N2.20 despite the not so good results

Offered at 2.10 but opened at 2.07. went down hard and wanted to sell at 1.97 but then dipped to 1.93. told my broker leave at 2.10. came back up to 2.10 and 1/3rd sold.. I'm leaving it at 2.10 for today for remaining units.. it's crazy
Modified: my broker used her discretion to adjust to 2.20. Chams defies logic. Loco wins the day!

Something must dey this chams bid don offer despite the result

Bizibi:
it means many Nigerians are not interested in stocks,t.bills and bonds but they are always interested in Ponzi schemes.

I will say the awareness is not there

ositadima1:
Most of the revenue/profit growth you folks are celebrating—I've read how Agba is praising the heavy returns in the consumer sector—I have just one question: Have you converted those returns to dollars and compared them with previous years’ returns using the exchange rates of those times? Which one do you think is better?

To me, it looks like we're seeing more money that’s worth much less.

And before anyone launches an attack saying “we spend in naira,” let me ask: how many made-in-Nigeria items do you actually own, aside from a few consumables?

It’s actually quite funny. Someone who used to earn ₦20 million a year before the Tinubu and Buhari istrations could afford a decent car and still live comfortably. Today, that same ₦20 million might only buy a car—if your taste isn’t even that high.

So, Brother t, while you’re sharing all this profitability news, please do us a favour: convert the figures to dollars—using the old rate (below ₦700) and the current rate (around ₦1,600)—so we can make a more meaningful comparison.

Thank you.

If you look at it on a year or two basis, you may not get the big picture.
You have to look at a typical business cycle of 5 years to get a good equity return.
In summary, an average 30-35% return on a mixture of mmf, equity (plus dividends and bonuses) per year will do just fine to hedge naira devaluation and inflation in relations to dollar.
Or a mixture of mmf, stock plus dollar mmf to hedge inflation in your portfolio at a 2:1 will be just fine too.
Have posted the calculations before but will take my time to post one tomorrow when less busy

Agbalowomeri:


You are looking at it from the street perspective
I am looking at it from an NGX trading/investing perspective
Whatever the street value of the profit is, some of these companies will deliver over 100% upside in price
It means you can easily double your money, irrespective of dollar or naira value; at least let's hope the naira value remains stable for this year

The two perspectives are complementary. You have to get both the entry and exit right—which means someone has to be willing to buy your stock when you're done, at the right price. Do you think foreign investors aren't seeing what I'm seeing?

For example, despite all the noise, only SCOA and Chellarams have delivered over 100% year-on-year returns so far, based on Yochaa metrics—unless you're a master of timing

ositadima1:


The two perspectives are complementary. You have to get both the entry and exit right—which means someone has to be willing to buy your stock when you're done, at the right price. Do you think foreign investors aren't seeing what I'm seeing?

For example, despite all the noise, only SCOA and Chellarams have delivered over 100% year-on-year returns so far, based on Yochaa metrics—unless you're a master of timing

Well between now and January, many of these consumer companies will deliver 100%. The certainty is very high

https://ewnation.com/c-wave-correction-drags-chams-down-25-percent/

ProphetUtuocha:
Even if annualized, the figures are still FALSE!

i initially pointed this out but everyone kept shouting annualized instead of doing the maths.

Nigerian banks have begun releasing their Q1 2025 results, and while many are still posting billions in profit, the era of runaway earnings growth may be drawing to a close.

For years now, Nigeria’s biggest banks, popularly referred to as the FUGAZ, have normalized quarterly pre-tax profits above N150 billion.

However, early numbers from this quarter suggest that growth is beginning to stall, and in some cases, reverse.

GTCO, one of the sector’s most efficient banks, saw its pre-tax profit fall sharply by 41% to N300 billion. FirstHoldCo wasn’t spared either, recording a 20.2% drop.

Access Holdings and Zenith Bank still posted modest growths of around 10%, but even that marks a steep drop from the triple-digit surges seen this time last year. So, what changed?

The cost of staying in business is rising

A closer look at the financial statements tells part of the story. Operating expenses are rising across the board, largely in response to spiraling inflation.

As the cost of doing business climbs, banks are spending more on everything—from technology to salaries. With bigger balance sheets, their overheads are also scaling up.

For instance, FirstHoldCo spent over N19 billion on advertising and promotion—a huge spike compared to last year.

Access Bank reported N41 billion in IT and e-business expenses, while Zenith Bank’s IT spend surged past N21 billion. Personnel expenses are also on the rise, as banks adjust wages and expand their workforce to growth.

In addition to inflationary pressures, banks are also seeing spikes in statutory costs. The controversial AMCON levy, a resolution fund fee, is taking a bigger bite out of profits.

Then there’s the sharp drop in foreign exchange revaluation gains—another major factor now weighing on bottom lines.

The forex windfall is drying up

Over the last two years, Nigerian banks recorded massive gains from forex revaluation, thanks to multiple currency devaluations. But with the naira now showing relative stability in 2025, those once-in-a-lifetime windfalls are tapering off.

Take Zenith Bank. Its trading gains dropped from N186.3 billion in Q1 2024 to just N12.8 billion this quarter. Last year, the bank made over N1 trillion in revaluation and trading gains.

GTCO’s story is even more dramatic, with unrealized FX gains plunging from N331 billion to just N1.5 billion.

This sharp drop was expected, but its effect on earnings is now clearly visible.

The EPS challenge looms

There’s another factor quietly at play: dilution from last year’s capital raises. In 2024, Nigerian banks raised nearly N2 trillion in fresh equity to meet recapitalization targets.

This means more shares in circulation—and therefore lower earnings per share (EPS), even if total profit still grows.

EPS is critical for valuations and investor sentiment. To maintain or grow EPS at 2024 levels, banks would need to significantly scale up profits—perhaps double or triple current levels.

That will be a tall order, especially as banks are now expected to grow earnings primarily through lending.

While interest rates remain high and risk-free instruments like treasury bills are attractive, expanding loan books in a fragile economy could increase non-performing loans.

Fortunately, most banks have built solid buffers by making provisions during the profitable years. But the risks remain.

What to expect going forward

While more Q1 results are yet to be released, the early signs point to a common trend: earnings growth is cooling off. This doesn’t mean banks are in trouble—it just means investors must adjust their expectations.

The Nigerian banking sector is still very profitable. But the days of bumper gains driven by one-off FX revaluations, underpriced equities, and windfall trading income may be behind us.

For investors, it’s time to watch how banks respond: Will they double down on lending? Will costs spiral further? Or will they find new, more sustainable paths to profit?

The golden era of easy bank profits may be fading. What comes next will demand better strategy—and a lot more patience

Redoil:
Nigerian banks have begun releasing their Q1 2025 results, and while many are still posting billions in profit, the era of runaway earnings growth may be drawing to a close.

For years now, Nigeria’s biggest banks, popularly referred to as the FUGAZ, have normalized quarterly pre-tax profits above N150 billion.

However, early numbers from this quarter suggest that growth is beginning to stall, and in some cases, reverse.

GTCO, one of the sector’s most efficient banks, saw its pre-tax profit fall sharply by 41% to N300 billion. FirstHoldCo wasn’t spared either, recording a 20.2% drop.

Access Holdings and Zenith Bank still posted modest growths of around 10%, but even that marks a steep drop from the triple-digit surges seen this time last year. So, what changed?

The cost of staying in business is rising

A closer look at the financial statements tells part of the story. Operating expenses are rising across the board, largely in response to spiraling inflation.

As the cost of doing business climbs, banks are spending more on everything—from technology to salaries. With bigger balance sheets, their overheads are also scaling up.

For instance, FirstHoldCo spent over N19 billion on advertising and promotion—a huge spike compared to last year.

Access Bank reported N41 billion in IT and e-business expenses, while Zenith Bank’s IT spend surged past N21 billion. Personnel expenses are also on the rise, as banks adjust wages and expand their workforce to growth.

In addition to inflationary pressures, banks are also seeing spikes in statutory costs. The controversial AMCON levy, a resolution fund fee, is taking a bigger bite out of profits.

Then there’s the sharp drop in foreign exchange revaluation gains—another major factor now weighing on bottom lines.

The forex windfall is drying up

Over the last two years, Nigerian banks recorded massive gains from forex revaluation, thanks to multiple currency devaluations. But with the naira now showing relative stability in 2025, those once-in-a-lifetime windfalls are tapering off.

Take Zenith Bank. Its trading gains dropped from N186.3 billion in Q1 2024 to just N12.8 billion this quarter. Last year, the bank made over N1 trillion in revaluation and trading gains.

GTCO’s story is even more dramatic, with unrealized FX gains plunging from N331 billion to just N1.5 billion.

This sharp drop was expected, but its effect on earnings is now clearly visible.

The EPS challenge looms

There’s another factor quietly at play: dilution from last year’s capital raises. In 2024, Nigerian banks raised nearly N2 trillion in fresh equity to meet recapitalization targets.

This means more shares in circulation—and therefore lower earnings per share (EPS), even if total profit still grows.

EPS is critical for valuations and investor sentiment. To maintain or grow EPS at 2024 levels, banks would need to significantly scale up profits—perhaps double or triple current levels.

That will be a tall order, especially as banks are now expected to grow earnings primarily through lending.

While interest rates remain high and risk-free instruments like treasury bills are attractive, expanding loan books in a fragile economy could increase non-performing loans.

Fortunately, most banks have built solid buffers by making provisions during the profitable years. But the risks remain.

What to expect going forward

While more Q1 results are yet to be released, the early signs point to a common trend: earnings growth is cooling off. This doesn’t mean banks are in trouble—it just means investors must adjust their expectations.

The Nigerian banking sector is still very profitable. But the days of bumper gains driven by one-off FX revaluations, underpriced equities, and windfall trading income may be behind us.

For investors, it’s time to watch how banks respond: Will they double down on lending? Will costs spiral further? Or will they find new, more sustainable paths to profit?

The golden era of easy bank profits may be fading. What comes next will demand better strategy—and a lot more patience

You wrote something very rude and vulgar in my thread where I'm seeking to buy P..I.. coins. Saw that you also post here.. quite disappointed with the language employed. If you don't have pi to sell and not in agreement with me buying, why post such comment? Why not just by?

Na only evil people dey criticize me here.
Those following Loco with pure heart will always win despite criticisms.

Shame to those who thought that Chams will bury me alive.Despite this not good result,I will be here to celebrate my 23m units of chams at the right time.

Henceforth I will not make further comments on chams until there is powerful breakout

I will only point or talk about other stocks without making any reference to chams

Streetinvestor2:
I don't mind buying from you at #20 when you exit the bus.Like I am going to buy presco at 1k in future without wahala. Price becomes only a number when value is achieved

Quotable quote

Typical Nigerian: When things aren't going well, blame your "enemies," not your own decisionmaking.

The problem with Chams is not a concocted curse from Abeokuta. It's math: 25% gross margins -- in a published result for all to see. With margins that poor, it will take a massive top-line increase to yield your N15 one-year price target.

Locotrader:
Na only evil people dey criticize me here.
Those following Loco with pure heart will always win despite criticisms.

Shame to those who thought that Chams will bury me alive.Despite this not good result,I will be here to celebrate my 23m units of chams at the right time.

unite4real:


i initially pointed this out but everyone kept shouting annualized instead of doing the maths.

Eagle eyes 👀 of NSEMPA

Please what is TIP?

Please how do i claim my dividend payments?

temi4fash:


Please what is TIP?

Please how do i claim my dividend payments?

The Initiates Plc.

There is a site you fill up your details and they will automatically process it for you at a little cost. Will try and check it up or you can send a mail to the registrar of the stock company you bought

Locotrader:
Henceforth I will not make further comments on chams until there is powerful breakout

I will only point or talk about other stocks without making any reference to chams

Na lie. You won't be able to resist the urge

unite4real:


i initially pointed this out but everyone kept shouting annualized instead of doing the maths.

What happened is this as stated on page 11of the financial statement

Basic earnings per share are calculated by dividing the profit for the year attributable to shareholders by the weighted average number of ordinary shares in issue during the year.

The calculation of basic earnings per share as at 31stMarch2025 was based on the profit attributable to ordinary shareholders and weighted average number of ordinary shares outstanding:

The figure circled in yellow was what was used to calculate the EPS which was then annualized

35,800,740 / 17, 858,502 = 2.004689

Annualized 2.004689 * 4 = 8.0188 approx. to 8.02

l am still trying to understand the factor that they used to arrive at the weighted average. They have been using this method. l went back to review last year's quarterly financial statement and l noticed this same patten was used to calculated and arrive at EPS for each quarter which was then annualized

It is really annoying. I will be mailing them on Monday if they do not do the needful.

I think it is an irresponsible and reckless action.

For someone like me that had planned to reinvest the dividend into another stock, the pain (& potential losses) just grows with each day it lingers.

Layi9:

Same, Access bank too

End- Biling System

Brace up

https://guardian.ng/business-services/telcos-shelve-services-improvement-to-q3-as-mtn-considers-n900b-capex/

Locotrader:
Henceforth I will not make further comments on chams until there is powerful breakout

I will only point or talk about other stocks without making any reference to chams

Just place them like they no longer exist...simple

Tell them o. I've been saying this since January.

Redoil:
Nigerian banks have begun releasing their Q1 2025 results, and while many are still posting billions in profit, the era of runaway earnings growth may be drawing to a close.

... However, early numbers from this quarter suggest that growth is beginning to stall, and in some cases, reverse.

... The Nigerian banking sector is still very profitable. But the days of bumper gains driven by one-off FX revaluations, underpriced equities, and windfall trading income may be behind us.

For investors, it’s time to watch how banks respond: Will they double down on lending? Will costs spiral further? Or will they find new, more sustainable paths to profit?

sterlingD:

What happened is this as stated on page 11of the financial statement

Basic earnings per share are calculated by dividing the profit for the year attributable to shareholders by the weighted average number of ordinary shares in issue during the year.

The calculation of basic earnings per share as at 31stMarch2025 was based on the profit attributable to ordinary shareholders and weighted average number of ordinary shares outstanding:

The figure circled in yellow was what was used to calculate the EPS which was then annualized

35,800,740 / 17, 858,502 = 2.004689

Annualized 2.004689 * 4 = 8.0188 approx. to 8.02

l am still trying to understand the factor that they used to arrive at the weighted average. They have been using this method. l went back to review last year's quarterly financial statement and l noticed this same patten was used to calculated and arrive at EPS for each quarter which was then annualized

Any magomago to raise this funds Lol

Redoil:
Nigerian banks have begun releasing their Q1 2025 results, and while many are still posting billions in profit, the era of runaway earnings growth may be drawing to a close.

For years now, Nigeria’s biggest banks, popularly referred to as the FUGAZ, have normalized quarterly pre-tax profits above N150 billion.

However, early numbers from this quarter suggest that growth is beginning to stall, and in some cases, reverse.

GTCO, one of the sector’s most efficient banks, saw its pre-tax profit fall sharply by 41% to N300 billion. FirstHoldCo wasn’t spared either, recording a 20.2% drop.

Access Holdings and Zenith Bank still posted modest growths of around 10%, but even that marks a steep drop from the triple-digit surges seen this time last year. So, what changed?

The cost of staying in business is rising

A closer look at the financial statements tells part of the story. Operating expenses are rising across the board, largely in response to spiraling inflation.

As the cost of doing business climbs, banks are spending more on everything—from technology to salaries. With bigger balance sheets, their overheads are also scaling up.

For instance, FirstHoldCo spent over N19 billion on advertising and promotion—a huge spike compared to last year.

Access Bank reported N41 billion in IT and e-business expenses, while Zenith Bank’s IT spend surged past N21 billion. Personnel expenses are also on the rise, as banks adjust wages and expand their workforce to growth.

In addition to inflationary pressures, banks are also seeing spikes in statutory costs. The controversial AMCON levy, a resolution fund fee, is taking a bigger bite out of profits.

Then there’s the sharp drop in foreign exchange revaluation gains—another major factor now weighing on bottom lines.

The forex windfall is drying up

Over the last two years, Nigerian banks recorded massive gains from forex revaluation, thanks to multiple currency devaluations. But with the naira now showing relative stability in 2025, those once-in-a-lifetime windfalls are tapering off.

Take Zenith Bank. Its trading gains dropped from N186.3 billion in Q1 2024 to just N12.8 billion this quarter. Last year, the bank made over N1 trillion in revaluation and trading gains.

GTCO’s story is even more dramatic, with unrealized FX gains plunging from N331 billion to just N1.5 billion.

This sharp drop was expected, but its effect on earnings is now clearly visible.

The EPS challenge looms

There’s another factor quietly at play: dilution from last year’s capital raises. In 2024, Nigerian banks raised nearly N2 trillion in fresh equity to meet recapitalization targets.

This means more shares in circulation—and therefore lower earnings per share (EPS), even if total profit still grows.

EPS is critical for valuations and investor sentiment. To maintain or grow EPS at 2024 levels, banks would need to significantly scale up profits—perhaps double or triple current levels.

That will be a tall order, especially as banks are now expected to grow earnings primarily through lending.

While interest rates remain high and risk-free instruments like treasury bills are attractive, expanding loan books in a fragile economy could increase non-performing loans.

Fortunately, most banks have built solid buffers by making provisions during the profitable years. But the risks remain.

What to expect going forward

While more Q1 results are yet to be released, the early signs point to a common trend: earnings growth is cooling off. This doesn’t mean banks are in trouble—it just means investors must adjust their expectations.

The Nigerian banking sector is still very profitable. But the days of bumper gains driven by one-off FX revaluations, underpriced equities, and windfall trading income may be behind us.

For investors, it’s time to watch how banks respond: Will they double down on lending? Will costs spiral further? Or will they find new, more sustainable paths to profit?

The golden era of easy bank profits may be fading. What comes next will demand better strategy—and a lot more patience

But this is a Nairametrics essay.
Next time just make some remarks and then link the source, to save space.

Abi PRESCO loot still dey intoxicate, red oil ?

https://nairametrics.com/2025/05/02/nigerian-banks-are-seeing-their-earnings-decline-and-it-could-get-worse/

We may see okomu close to #1,000 per share with this Q1/25 eps of #22.79

The Tragedy of Panic Selling: My Experience on NGX and NYSE
During the twilight of President Trump's US tariff war 2, targeted mostly at China due to historical trade imbalances between the two superpowers, many traders and investors were in panic mode. A decision had to be made:
1) to remain in the market ✔️
2) to sell off ✖️
3) to buy the dip. 👍
By the first week of April 2025, the NGX showed resilience, shedding marginally, while the NYSE was battered, with the bear market anticipated by market participants hitting the exchange. The news was exaggeratedly magnified globally.

As a market participant with principles learned from Warren Buffett, I opted to remain in the market since I've no new fund to invest and saw my NYSE portfolio being tested and BATTERED by the bear. This wasn't the first time; the memories of COVID-19 and the Black Monday sell offs of August 2024 still remained fresh in my mind. I had learned from others' experiences, which is often the best teacher.

All the investors who panic-sold their assets and subscribed to the theory that your investment is paper money until you sell out and cut losses are now chasing the attractive market. Within just four market days, global markets are recovering, although the Nigerian market is still weak.

The lesson learned here is the increasing need for individual investors to diversify and become part of global investors.

Patience is the virtue of farmers, who sow, work hard, and wait in expectation for nature to perfect their work by providing rain and sunshine, which they cannot control. On the other hand, there are the hunters (point and kill or Jump in and jump out) who lack patience and believe that nature will always provide a hunt, regardless of the season. Farmers are good investors, while hunters often pay the highest prices when farmers refuse to sell, driving the market up exponentially.

In the words of Warren Buffett, "The stock market is a place where wealth is transferred from an impatient investor to the patient one." A diversified portfolio would always rebalance itself, no matter how long the bear market lasts. The fundamental stock you panic-sold today would cost a price tomorrow, 🔜 PRESCO and NAHCO @ the peak of Covid-19. Now is the time to research and forecast the next PRESCO and NAHCO on NGX

No one has a crystal ball to predict what the market will do tomorrow; we can only forecast. Hence, learning the principles of investment is more valuable than investing your hard-earned money. Your money is never lost in the market until you surrender your holding. Paper loss is better than paying a price for a stock you've given away due to panic selling.

The only constant thing in stock investment is volatility. Volatility is not a death cross, and not all death crosses result in significant market declines. Discipline and perseverance in the market are rewarding virtues. Think long-term, allow the market to reward you handsomely and grow your wealth stealthly.

Many Nigerian investors are still judging the NGX based on past experiences from the late 2000s, when the market often suffered the consequences of bad news from the NYSE due to massive participation by foreign portfolio investors.
However, things have changed. The growth of the pension fund industry, the enlightenment of local participants, improving regulatory oversight, and increasing numbers of mutual fund products are stabilising factors for the NGX, which I strongly believe would not experience a death cross in the coming years, unless there's a coup d'état.

zendi:
But this is a Nairametrics essay.
Next time just make some remarks and then link the source, to save space.

Abi PRESCO loot still dey intoxicate, red oil ?

https://nairametrics.com/2025/05/02/nigerian-banks-are-seeing-their-earnings-decline-and-it-could-get-worse/

I have been wondering if Nairametrics and Redoil is one and the same person. , this is a faceless forum. Nobody know who is who.

GTBank arrested VDM.

https://nairaland.unblockandhide.com/8414959/verydarkman-arrested-over-gtbank-loan#135211733


Who is advising these people? There are many ways to handle such an issue.

Now, it's operation close your GTBank next week.

Their social media pages are on fire. Massive reporting and protest.

megawealth01:


CAVERTON finally...

I really had PATIENCE with the remaining CAVERTON in my portfolio. Makanjuola shouldn't fall my hands sha

Is Makanjuola the CEO of CAVERTON ?
Just asking because I don't know.

Youngzedd:
GTBank arrested VDM.

https://nairaland.unblockandhide.com/8414959/verydarkman-arrested-over-gtbank-loan#135211733


Who is advising these people? There are many ways to handle such an issue.

Now, it's operation close your GTBank next week.

Their social media pages are on fire. Massive reporting and protest.

Only Gen z do stuffs like that. Even when they had network glitches that made transaction impossible, I still maintained my 18yr old with them.