NewStats: 3,261,833 , 8,175,314 topics. Date: Friday, 30 May 2025 at 06:01 PM 2a47t

zendi:
20 Japanese refineries import all their crude oil in the petro-currency, dollars.
Japan has no crude oil.
But they sell refined products to the domestic market in the local currency. They must also be exporting, but I assume that all operations are done at profit to the refineries..

Nigeria's private refineries should pay for every drop of our crude oil in the petro currency, dollars.
To do otherwise would deplete our external reserves and subsidize the export trade of private entities.
It will also be subsidizing, unfortunately, both land and sea smuggling of cheap refined products out of the country.

Nigerian refineries will operate even more profitably than their Japanese counterparts because "importing" crude oil from home will eliminate freight (shipping) and Maritime insurance costs from the landing cost, than would be the case if importing crude from abroad.
The same advantage for Petroleum marketers, than if importing products from abroad.

Summary, private refineries should procure crude oil from wherever found, or pay for our own at the international price and currency, then sell products to domestic offtakers at whatever conversion rate that makes them profit, but not in foreign currency.

Competition should checkmate monopoly and excessive price hiking.

I'm just an ordinary citizen observing the Oligarch and the Cabal at each other's throats for control of the nation's petroleum fortunes.

Finally, someone seeing things the way I’ve been seeing them on this matter.
Except the Government intends to use the crude for naira deal to subsidize petrol slightly.

Essentialone1 don chop ban.....
B.o.t also warning you to appreciate Tony 😁
If he didn't declare N2 + N3 for 2024 FYE, nobody go hold him shirt for it.
Una go dump tire, then he go still come defend the share price again ni....😊

Agbalowomeri:


That's just 100k doris

a lot of money anywhere on planet earth

emmanuelewumi:



Compare it with our per capita income of roughly $2000.

If your investment income is twice to thrice and above of our per capita income, you are doing well

I have to agree with the position

delvzy:
What do you guys think of this portfolio? 🤔
ARADEL
SFSREIT
NIDF
DANGOTE CEMENT
BUA FOODS
TRANSCORP
PRESCO
NGX GROUP
VFD GROUP
FIDELITY

I will swap SFS Reit for UPDC REIT
BUA is a long term play, if you are a dividend hunter, avoid any Rabiu company
What I do is spend money I consider write off to buy their shares (Cenrment and foods) so I don't compute it in my dividend valuations

Aradel is Aii
Presco is good
I'll swap Fidelity for Zenith if it is a mutually exclusive choice....
If not
80:20 in favour of Zenith

PS....
Just have it in mind that the weighted average dividend return (annual) of this portfolio no go high laidat

Thanks for the . I intend to play the long game at this point.
Can you elaborate on the few alternative options you mentioned?

RodgersAkpafu:


I will swap SFS Reit for UPDC REIT
BUA is a long term play, if you are a dividend hunter, avoid any Rabiu company
What I do is spend money I consider write off to buy their shares (Cenrment and foods) so I don't compute it in my dividend valuations

Aradel is Aii
Presco is good
I'll swap Fidelity for Zenith if it is a mutually exclusive choice....
If not
80:20 in favour of Zenith

PS....
Just have it in mind that the weighted average dividend return (annual) of this portfolio no go high laidat

It is a newly formed portfolio I am looking to create in a new stockbroking .

ojesymsym:
What is your average entry price for each of them?

delvzy:
Thanks for the . I intend to play the long game at this point.
Can you elaborate on the few alternative options you mentioned?

This is gonna be a (slightly) long post so strap on your seat belt

Caveat: This is. my opinion only

Let's go........

Now investors generally either play for cash flows (dividends) ; or capital appreciation on the asset over time (increase in asset price)

While both are very good, and some play for a mix of both in their investment strategy
I play for the cash much more because Nigeria battles the twin demons of devaluation and inflation (almost identical twins lol)

So, in my portfolio, I prioritise cash flow more than the capital appreciation bit
I suggest u do same

Now when it comes to the picks that will give you AT WORST minimum of >11% annual cash flow returns
I'll say Zenith (now my biggest position, buying this sucker hand over fist)
Soke GTBank will be alright
UCAP may do better this year into the next (they "disappointed a bit" )

Access is drunk on expansion ogogoro, so a little bit of it is fine, but I don't always trust them to "over declare for boys" like their peers do

Seplat and Airtel is also fine, but their dividend payment is less than <10% annually but the dividends come in regularly (more than the typical Nigerian company)

BUA companies are companies you buy with (small) funds that you write off in my opinion (I.e. you wasted the money but you did not waste the money situation, lol)

For real estate exposure, UPDC Reit > SFS Reit .
(you can have both, but much more of UPDC than the latter)
That's my opinion
Use at your own risk
Thank you

Raider76:
All you said is well. Except the Japanese Yen is a strong convertible currency that is very stable, and Japan has had very low inflation and even negative (-ve) interest rates for decades. So, a Japanese refinery importing crude in US$ and selling in Yen is almost like using the same currency. We Nigerians like to compare ourselves to the strongest countries on earth. But sometimes it is like a chicken saying it will fly like the eagle since it is also a bird. If you don't understand who you are it is easy to get lost.

delvzy:
What do you guys think of this portfolio? 🤔
ARADEL
SFSREIT
NIDF
DANGOTE CEMENT
BUA FOODS
TRANSCORP
PRESCO
NGX GROUP
VFD GROUP
FIDELITY

ARADEL
DANGOTE CEMENT
BUA FOODS
TRANSCORP
PRESCO
NGX GROUP

zendi:
20 Japanese refineries import all their crude oil in the petro-currency, dollars.
Japan has no crude oil.
But they sell refined products to the domestic market in the local currency. They must also be exporting, but I assume that all operations are done at profit to the refineries..

Nigeria's private refineries should pay for every drop of our crude oil in the petro currency, dollars.
To do otherwise would deplete our external reserves and subsidize the export trade of private entities.
It will also be subsidizing, unfortunately, both land and sea smuggling of cheap refined products out of the country.

Nigerian refineries will operate even more profitably than their Japanese counterparts because "importing" crude oil from home will eliminate freight (shipping) and Maritime insurance costs from the landing cost, than would be the case if importing crude from abroad.
The same advantage for Petroleum marketers, than if importing products from abroad.

Summary, private refineries should procure crude oil from wherever found, or pay for our own at the international price and currency, then sell products to domestic offtakers at whatever conversion rate that makes them profit, but not in foreign currency.

Competition should checkmate monopoly and excessive price hiking.

I'm just an ordinary citizen observing the Oligarch and the Cabal at each other's throats for control of the nation's petroleum fortunes.

For me, Our local refineries must be allowed to buy crude oil in our local currency but at the official exchange rate. Govt can continue to sell in dollars to foreign buyers.
Asking them to source dollars to buy crude oil locally and then sell in Naira locally cannot help anyone or the larger economy on the long run. It will only worsen the volatility of our naira and worsen the inflation.

Guyz, I have some stake in ARADEL. But been waiting for it to drop below 500 to get more..

Do you think it’s okay going a lot on current price?

Let some people be talking as if it is Dangote they write on our currency. They should not sell to him in naira (so that everyone can be happy). He will find dollars (that is not available) and import. It is still the naira that will suffer. SAs someone rightly mentioned, to me, the only incentive for buying crude in naira is freight/shipping. And that is not as he wish. There is template for margin/gain in refining business. There is established way of calculating this thing. Nigeria is just too difficult to deal with.

sophy17:



For me, Our local refineries must be allowed to buy crude oil in our local currency but at the official exchange rate. Govt can continue to sell in dollars to foreign buyers.
Asking them to source dollars to buy crude oil locally and then sell in Naira locally cannot help anyone or the larger economy on the long run. It will only worsen the volatility of our naira and worsen the inflation.

olig:
Let some people be talking as if it is Dangote they write on our currency. They should not sell to him in naira (so that everyone can be happy). He will find dollars (that is not available) and import. It is still the naira that will suffer. SAs someone rightly mentioned, to me, the only incentive for buying crude in naira is freight/shipping. And that is not as he wish. There is template for margin/gain in refining business. There is established way of calculating this thing. Nigeria is just too difficult to deal with.

Indeed
Nigerian are too difficult (the real word is stupid) to deal with

Instead of understandings the unique situation we are in and advocating Dangote gets all the he needs
Because of sentiment and stupidity
People are talking "anyhow"

Dangote will be fine regardless
The refinery too
But let's see how the metrics of nigeria will be if we bungle this opportunity

Senseless people
Tufiakwa

zendi:
20 Japanese refineries import all their crude oil in the petro-currency, dollars.
Japan has no crude oil.
But they sell refined products to the domestic market in the local currency. They must also be exporting, but I assume that all operations are done at profit to the refineries..

Nigeria's private refineries should pay for every drop of our crude oil in the petro currency, dollars.
To do otherwise would deplete our external reserves and subsidize the export trade of private entities.
It will also be subsidizing, unfortunately, both land and sea smuggling of cheap refined products out of the country.

Nigerian refineries will operate even more profitably than their Japanese counterparts because "importing" crude oil from home will eliminate freight (shipping) and Maritime insurance costs from the landing cost, than would be the case if importing crude from abroad.
The same advantage for Petroleum marketers, than if importing products from abroad.

Summary, private refineries should procure crude oil from wherever found, or pay for our own at the international price and currency, then sell products to domestic offtakers at whatever conversion rate that makes them profit, but not in foreign currency.

Competition should checkmate monopoly and excessive price hiking.

I'm just an ordinary citizen observing the Oligarch and the Cabal at each other's throats for control of the nation's petroleum fortunes.

Whr do you want them to source the dollars to buy nigeria own crude. .Is it from government or black market. You didn't not add that to your post.The dollars from refined products exported will be used to buy imported crude which balances that trade.
Why can't government sell the naija crude at the prevailing exchange rate to dollars. You want them to make dollars from thr export and pay you.Then when they need to buy imported crude they become stranded of dollars. If you are a business man will you agree.

RodgersAkpafu:


Indeed
Nigerian are too difficult (the real word is stupid) to deal with

Instead of understandings the unique situation we are in and advocating Dangote gets all the he needs
Because of sentiment and stupidity
People are talking "anyhow"

Dangote will be fine regardless
The refinery too
But let's see how the metrics of nigeria will be if we bungle this opportunity

Senseless people
Tufiakwa

China understands its unique position and throws its weight totally behind the SoEs and other huge companies of strategic interest

At this point forget sentiments and how you feel about the man (which is irrelevant btw)
He needs all the backing he needs

We could add conditionalities as well
Like making him list
making him cede more stake in the company to us as well as the govt
all that

But again, our ppl are stupid asf
No sense
only sentiments and short sightedness

bastardson:
Guyz, I have some stake in ARADEL. But been waiting for it to drop below 500 to get more..

Do you think it’s okay going a lot on current price?

Sometimes the best thing to do is to lag your investment in aradel

Essentially buying up small small every week
while still waiting for your target price (if it actually materialises ) essentially hedging your risk.

If you keep waiting and aradel inches upwards
That will be a lost opportunity

bastardson:
Guyz, I have some stake in ARADEL. But been waiting for it to drop below 500 to get more..

Do you think it’s okay going a lot on current price?

It is currently trading Below ₦500, that the purpose of buying companies like Aradel is mostly because you expect them to make a lot more profits in the future than they make today. Today the profit is around 50 bucks, in the future it could grow to 100 or 200, now imagine investing 500 today and in the future(5-10 years from now), that investment is returning 200 every year.

Have you gotten your GTCO added to your CSCS ?

Sunrisepebble:
Don’t forget that the new shares are not listed. So they don’t have to pay out on it compared to the ones that have listed the newly issued shares

You seem to have forgotten so quickly that we have the domestic crude supply obligation (DCSO) as mandated by the PIA. Something that seems like rocket science for the NUPRC to fully enforce.

May I also remind you that the so-called international traders asked the domestic refineries (DANGREFINE et al) to pay about $4 million EXTRA per cargo.

Comparison of Japan and Nigeria wrt FX is a grave mismatch.
Japan generated/received over US$700billion in 2024 from exports while we are struggling to rake in US$70billion...

Oligarchy is not a crime IF within the ambits of the law

zendi:
20 Japanese refineries import all their crude oil in the petro-currency, dollars.
Japan has no crude oil.
But they sell refined products to the domestic market in the local currency. They must also be exporting, but I assume that all operations are done at profit to the refineries..

Nigeria's private refineries should pay for every drop of our crude oil in the petro currency, dollars.
To do otherwise would deplete our external reserves and subsidize the export trade of private entities.
It will also be subsidizing, unfortunately, both land and sea smuggling of cheap refined products out of the country.

Nigerian refineries will operate even more profitably than their Japanese counterparts because "importing" crude oil from home will eliminate freight (shipping) and Maritime insurance costs from the landing cost, than would be the case if importing crude from abroad.
The same advantage for Petroleum marketers, than if importing products from abroad.

Summary, private refineries should procure crude oil from wherever found, or pay for our own at the international price and currency, then sell products to domestic offtakers at whatever conversion rate that makes them profit, but not in foreign currency.

Competition should checkmate monopoly and excessive price hiking.

I'm just an ordinary citizen observing the Oligarch and the Cabal at each other's throats for control of the nation's petroleum fortunes.

Thank you!

Raider76:
All you said is well. Except the Japanese Yen is a strong convertible currency that is very stable, and Japan has had very low inflation and even negative (-ve) interest rates for decades. So, a Japanese refinery importing crude in US$ and selling in Yen is almost like using the same currency. We Nigerians like to compare ourselves to the strongest countries on earth. But sometimes it is like a chicken saying it will fly like the eagle since it is also a bird. If you don't understand who you are it is easy to get lost.

Hello Everyone, I just have a quick question. Has GTCO (DataMax) credited the approved public offer shares to anyone's CSCS ? I got the e-allotment advice from DataMax Registrars, but the shares have not yet been deposited into my CSCS. Anyone else in that situation?

https://ewnation.com/understanding-the-all-share-index-asi-and-its-role-in-forecasting-market-trends-on-the-stock-exchange/
follow https://discord zone/Y9cWUxmq8G (replace zone with dot double g)

yMcy56:
Essentialone1 don chop ban.....
B.o.t also warning you to appreciate Tony 😁
If he didn't declare N2 + N3 for 2024 FYE, nobody go hold him shirt for it.
Una go dump tire, then he go still come defend the share price again ni....😊

delvzy:
Thanks for the . I intend to play the long game at this point.
Can you elaborate on the few alternative options you mentioned?

most people seems to know nothing about NDIF that pays dividend four times a year and almost 18% per year due to their hiding financials

most people seems to know nothing about NDIF that pays dividend four times a year and almost 18% per year due to their hiding financials

Youngzedd:



ARADEL
DANGOTE CEMENT
BUA FOODS
TRANSCORP
PRESCO
NGX GROUP

Ades1:



It is currently trading Below ₦500, that the purpose of buying companies like Aradel is mostly because you expect them to make a lot more profits in the future than they make today. Today the profit is around 50 bucks, in the future it could grow to 100 or 200, now imagine investing 500 today and in the future(5-10 years from now), that investment is returning 200 every year.

true talk

https://moneycentral.com.ng/companies/article/access-bank-commercial-paper-issuance-raises-liquidity-red-flags-among-investors-on-possible-financial-weakness/

emmanuelewumi:




N200 million portfolio after playing the stock market is not bad, in fact na money.

There are a lot of people who have been playing the market for 20 years and above whose portfolios are less than N50 million, which is also not bad.

I doubt if 10% of the Nigerian population can boast of an investment of N50 million.

if one can read quiet a lot of Warren letters and understand well and hold long term(very hard). Seriously in 20 years there have been quite a lot of impressive opportunities. One should have up to 200m if you really take it seriously and study capital allocation wisely. My granddad as 100k okomu at price averaging N10, nestle at N20 like 10k unit but he rebuys when cheap and safe dividend in pounds if not spent to rebuy. He mentioned reading Warren early for me was too stupid to understand early.

SonofElElyonRet:

When you add interim dividend of N2 that's well over 10%

Without considering naira devaluation and inflation, people that bought UBA prior to 2020 are practically making free money from current dividend.

pluto09:

https://moneycentral.com.ng/companies/article/access-bank-commercial-paper-issuance-raises-liquidity-red-flags-among-investors-on-possible-financial-weakness/

When they are high on the expansion drug