NewStats: 3,263,358 , 8,179,906 topics. Date: Thursday, 05 June 2025 at 04:35 PM e391l

emmaodet:


I expect bank interest rate to fall too, abi.
There is no point keeping it at 27.5-28% from Cbn and 30% interest on loan from banks.
If TB rates are dropping, inflation rate dropping, then the normal and reasonable thing to follow is bank interest rate. It will be fraudulent still keeping it high

They would all drop. That is the positive thing about the rebased inflation. It gives us a second chance to start afresh after a volatile 2024 with record high interest rates that slowed down growth. Coming from a high base in 2024, 2025 would be better than 2024. Perception feeds into reality sometimes.
At the meeting today though, the CBN may hold in order to see the trend next month or in the next two months at most.
The month on month trend would signal the direction we are going which means the inflation rate for February should tell us more.

GeneralDae:

They would all drop. That is the positive thing about the rebased inflation. It gives us a second chance to start afresh after a volatile 2024 with record high interest rates that slowed down growth. Coming from a high base in 2024, 2025 would be better than 2024. Perception feeds into reality sometimes.
At the meeting today though, the CBN may hold in order to see the trend next month or in the next two months at most.
The month on month trend would signal the direction we are going which means the inflation rate for February should tell us more.

Do you understand what rebasing an economy is? Rebasing simply means updating the base year for calculating GDP. But how many people actually pay attention to GDP?

The issue we are facing isn’t even monetary inflation (too much money in circulation) but cost-push inflation (rising input costs). How is rebasing going to address that?

guyzgirl:


Please explain how the rebasing of the I is responsible for the fall in Tbills? From my understanding, tbills sale is an auction process and rates are determined by bids; as you can see, there were investors comfortable with 16% return. How is this the doing of rebased I? Beyond this, would you blame the central bank for trying to disincentivize the warehousing and starving of funds from the real economy? Take a look at recent tbills and bond results, it is obvious that there is excess liquidity chasing the issuances, N2.2Trillion chasing N500Billion!!. Bear in mind that this is at the expense of the real sector, who are being starved of funds, because the available, if not excess liquidity, is chasing TBills.

It would also be instrumental to that TBills are a monetary instrument and this current effort would help taper the currently high interest rates businesses are burdened with.

I think the I played a key role.
If you looked at the previous auction the offer was more than this one. It was N3.15 Trillion chasing N500 Billion yet the stop rate was 20.3%

ositadima1:


Do you understand what rebasing an economy is? Rebasing simply means updating the base year for calculating GDP. But how many people actually pay attention to GDP?

The issue we are facing isn’t even monetary inflation (too much money in circulation) but cost-push inflation (rising input costs). How is rebasing going to address that?

If it’s cost push inflation then that makes my point. Increasing interest rates doesn’t solve cost push inflation. So having positive real interest rates like we have now, if maintained throughout the year would prevent CBN from further rate hikes and lead to rate cuts.

Nigerialabalaba:
Zelensky dey para like the fury of woman hand don touch. Since Monday, e dey bomb oil assets of Russia/Putin and dey destroy Trump for media so tey Trump too don fire am back

Link
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1892242622623699357?t=6rTFW-m4ANgn9pEvh6zZOg&s=19

Oil sef dey rise wella so anyone wey sabi go dey load oil company shares wella.

Dis trouble Trump dey look for, na oil, metals and commodities especially food go reap am o.

Even Hamas no send Trump wen Trump dey foam for mouth las week. Iran sef don reply am today say make he bring am on say no be Iran e go dey form VanDamme for.

Zelensky go drag d war till Trump sef go leave WH like Putin do for Biden. Elemi lo ma last o.

Shine una eyes wella. Igi pawpaw o ni wo pawa o.

Let's see how Ukraine fares without USA funding
Let's see how Iran fares when economic sanctions and crude oil sale blockade are effected
Let's see how Hamas the blatantly terrorist organisation fares when CIA under Trump begins to share info and Intel with mossad and shin bet regarding locations of Hamas leaders and commanders and they are neutralised in quick succession... When USA piles pressure on those countries harbouring them to expel them. Hamas is a terrorist organisation without any doubt. Quite unfortunate and disappointing how people are in denial just because of "religious and political correctness"

p.s. Igi araba ati iroko lo ma wo pa hamas

GeneralDae:

If it’s cost push inflation then that makes my point. Increasing interest rates doesn’t solve cost push inflation. So having positive real interest rates like we have now, if maintained throughout the year would prevent CBN from further rate hikes and lead to rate cuts.

What do you mean by "prevent CBN"? The same CBN and government that hiked interest rates when excess cash in circulation was clearly not the issue are now the ones planning to reduce it, using a different excuse.

I agree with you that devaluation was inevitable to keep Nigeria from sinking, but the approach and timing were completely wrong. The way something is handled can make a huge difference—just like in trading. You and I could act on the same stock signal, but our approaches could significantly affect the profits we make.

ositadima1:


What do you mean by "prevent CBN"? The same CBN and government that hiked interest rates when excess cash in circulation was clearly not the issue are now the ones planning to reduce it, using a different excuse.

I agree with you that devaluation was inevitable to keep Nigeria from sinking, but the approach and timing were completely wrong. The way something is handled can make a huge difference—just like in trading. You and I could act on the same stock signal, but our approaches could significantly affect the profits we make.

Hmm. On this devaluation thing, the devaluation itself in June 2023 was not the wrong policy especially if the naira had remained at the 750 - 1000 range.

However, in July 2023 the parallel market began to depreciate again and was at 850 (which was expected due to the inflation from fuel subsidy removal) but it got even worse in August when people began quoting a report from JP Morgan saying our net reserves were just $3.7 Billion. That destroyed investors confidence completely and they began to flee. The few FPI’s who were still coming in took their money away.

This was a time U.S and developed countries also began to tighten rates due to inflation in the West from Russia Ukraine war, hence it was more profitable to take your money out of less developed countries to the West where rates were getting more reasonable with lower risks.

As at January 2024, reserves were down and FPI’s were at their lowest in decades. Nothing left to defend the naira. The parallel market was haywire due to these realities and it was already at 1470 in January while the official market was at 800.
Given these realities, it would have been near impossible to bring the parallel market closer to 800 in 2024 except we could get at least $10 Billion at once. Cardoso had to float the naira again on Feb 1st 2024, taking the official rate from 800 to around 1400 all at once and it hit the market hard leading to losses in businesses from FX devaluation and sky rocketing inflation.

PuristForest:
buy transcorp in 2 weeks

why transcop

unite4real:


I think the I played a key role.
If you looked at the previous auction the offer was more than this one. It was N3.15 Trillion chasing N500 Billion yet the stop rate was 20.3%

That’s correct, but they had previously indicated that in February, they would start to ‘return’ funds, hence, issuing less bills than the maturing ones. The truth is that this correction is needed, as TBills as a monetary tool was being over-expended as a temporary measure.

Apparently targeting the release of their Audited FY24 report with dividend declaration anticipated.

Redoil:

why transcop

correct G
send me your address i will send you a gallon of redoil

GeeKudi:
Apparently targeting the release of their Audited FY24 report with dividend declaration anticipated.

Merci.

Do you actually deal in red oil? Whta's your business model like?

Redoil:
correct G
send me your address i will send you a gallon of redoil

GeeKudi:

Merci.

Do you actually deal in red oil? Whta's your business model like?

i dont deal in red oil i only use it to appease the gods

What you will consider as a good target entry price?

GeeKudi:
Apparently targeting the release of their Audited FY24 report with dividend declaration anticipated.

ositadima1:


You have no idea what is going on. The only reason Ukraine has lasted this long is because of U.S. backing. It is the U.S. that has been supplying them with weapons, sanctioning Russia, and spreading anti-Russian propaganda through the media. The U.S. was practically doing everything for Ukraine.

Now that U.S. policy has changed, the war is over. It was the U.S. that pushed them into fighting in the first place. Ukraine cannot defeat Russia—just compare the size and resources of both countries.

As I said, very soon, most of the sanctions imposed by the U.S. will be lifted, and Russia will once again be allowed to flood the market with oil. Let’s watch as things unfold.

Good commentary.
But also don't forget that Trump will not have it easy with his Republicans and Americans in general if he decides to side with Putin in this war. It is either there is an end to the war, or US will still do something to curtail the power and raging madness of Putin. US cannot afford to allow Russia to win the war as it would be a devastating blow to US and Europe combined.
If the war ends today, no side can claim ''victory''. Ukraine might have lost some territory but Russia's (and Putin's) invincibility would have suffered a severe and devastating blow because he started the war thinking it was going to be a walk in the park. The joke and humiliation would be on Putin.
As regards price of crude, I don't foresee any immediate effect on the price of crude because there is still a lot of uncertainty in the horizon. If anything at all, the war in the Israel-Lebanon-Iran axis would have to come to a definite end before there could be any sustainable, significant reduction in oil prices.

mikeapollo:


Good commentary.
But also don't forget that Trump will not have it easy with his Republicans and Americans in general if he decides to side with Putin in this war. It is either there is an end to the war, or US will still do something to curtail the power and raging madness of Putin. US cannot afford to allow Russia to win the war as it would be a devastating blow to US and Europe combined.
If the war ends today, no side can claim ''victory''. Ukraine might have lost territory but Russia's (and Putin's) invincibility would have suffered a severe and devastating blow because he started the war thinking it was going to be a walk in the park.
As regards price of crude, I don't foresee any immediate effect on the price of crude because there is still a lot of uncertainty in the horizon. If anything at all, the war in the Israel-Lebanon-Iran axis would have to come to a definite end before there could be any sustainable, significant reduction in oil prices

You are quoting the same propaganda that the U.S. and Western countries have been spreading. In fact, it was the U.S. that underestimated Russia. At the beginning of the war, the U.S. never expected it to last this long. Their goal was to quickly sideline Russia by imposing a barrage of sanctions and pressuring its allies—about 80% of the world—to stop buying Russian oil and gas, all while arming Ukraine.

I the media claiming that the war would only last a few months. As always, complex plans rarely unfold as initially expected. Now, the U.S. (by which I mean the elites) has shifted its policies. They made a complete turnaround, which is one of the reasons Trump was elected, and the Biden istration had to go.

Just to be clear, they don’t elect their leaders the way we do in Nigeria—there is always a strategic plan in place. Trump is merely playing a role that aligns with the interests of the elites.

It's currently trading at a range. You may want to target a price close to the lower end of the range.

elpaso007:
What you will consider as a good target entry price?

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Alright then. I appreciate your response.

GeeKudi:
It's currently trading at a range. You may want to target a price close to the lower end of the range.

emmaodet:


There is a thread for on nairaland.
You get updates there. I am in that thread too

Thank you.


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Rubyjade:
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ositadima1:


What do you mean by "prevent CBN"? The same CBN and government that hiked interest rates when excess cash in circulation was clearly not the issue are now the ones planning to reduce it, using a different excuse.

I agree with you that devaluation was inevitable to keep Nigeria from sinking, but the approach and timing were completely wrong. The way something is handled can make a huge difference—just like in trading. You and I could act on the same stock signal, but our approaches could significantly affect the profits we make.

I don't think it is totally correct to say excess cash in circulation was not the issue.
One of the issues affecting naira volatility is excess liquidity. A lot of naira in the circulation will be chasing the few dollar we have, there by putting pressure on our forex with the resultant effect of devaluation.
Keeping the interest rate high was not only to combat inflation directly but to also manage a volatile currency by discouraging a situation where too much naira is chasing few dollars and by making yield attractive for foreign investors to bring in their dollars.

ositadima1:


You are quoting the same propaganda that the U.S. and Western countries have been spreading. In fact, it was the U.S. that underestimated Russia. At the beginning of the war, the U.S. never expected it to last this long. Their goal was to quickly sideline Russia by imposing a barrage of sanctions and pressuring its allies—about 80% of the world—to stop buying Russian oil and gas, all while arming Ukraine.

I the media claiming that the war would only last a few months. As always, complex plans rarely unfold as initially expected. Now, the U.S. (by which I mean the elites) has shifted its policies. They made a complete turnaround, which is one of the reasons Trump was elected, and the Biden istration had to go.

Just to be clear, they don’t elect their leaders the way we do in Nigeria—there is always a strategic plan in place. Trump is merely playing a role that aligns with the interests of the elites.

It is a fact that it was Russia (Putin) that attacked Ukraine. Would you expect US and Europe to fold their hands and watch? Of course they had to do something to deter or check Putin and sanctions were the first line of action, followed by military to Ukraine.
Put yourself in the shoes of Ukraine. Would you fold your hands and allow anybody to bully you and your people just because he believes he is stronger or richer than you?
A Yoruba proverb says that whatever you cannot accept as a rich man, you should learn the courage to start rejecting it even when you are a poor man.
If we accept what Putin did to Ukraine, then we should be willing to accept all forms of racial supremacists, discrimination, injustice, terror attacks etc. going on around the world. It would mean we have accepted that ''Might is Right''!

pluto09:


I don't think it is totally correct to say excess cash in circulation was not the issue.
One of the issues affecting naira volatility is excess liquidity. A lot of naira in the circulation will be chasing the few dollar we have, there by putting pressure on our forex with the resultant effect of devaluation.
Keeping the interest rate high was not only to combat inflation directly but to also manage a volatile currency by discouraging a situation where too much naira is chasing few dollars and by making yield attractive for foreign investors to bring in their dollars.

Everything you said is correct, but let’s think a little further—why is so much Naira chasing so few dollars? I believe it's because we are not generating enough revenue in foreign currencies. Naturally, this leads to an oversupply of Naira pursuing a limited amount of dollars.

To connect this to my previous post, you don’t solve a problem by only addressing its effects; you need to tackle the root causes. Has the government done that? Has it declared a state of emergency on security and kidnapping? How did it handle the Dangote refinery saga—a project that could significantly boost our dollar revenue? What steps is it taking to fight corruption? What about the agricultural sector and many other crucial industries?

They seem to believe that simply adjusting a few economic levers will fix the deeper, structural issues. Ok nah.

Ellahlakes...
What is cooking here?

mikeapollo:


It is a fact that it was Russia (Putin) that attacked Ukraine. Would you expect US and Europe to fold their hands and watch? Of course they had to do something to deter or check Putin and sanctions were the first line of action, followed by military to Ukraine.
Put yourself in the shoes of Ukraine. Would you fold your hands and allow anybody to bully you and your people just because he believes he is stronger or richer than you?
A Yoruba proverb says that whatever you cannot accept as a rich man, you should learn the courage to start rejecting it even when you are a poor man.
If we accept what Putin did to Ukraine, then we should be willing to accept all forms of racial supremacists, discrimination, injustice, terror attacks etc. going on around the world. It would mean we have accepted that ''Might is Right''!

I am trying to engage with you respectfully, but it’s becoming increasingly difficult. Did you follow how it all started, or were you asleep? Before Russia attacked Ukraine, there were months of deliberations between the two countries—it didn’t just happen overnight. Russia made it clear that Ukraine, a former USSR state, ing NATO was a red line. Please take the time to read up on it.

NOTHING ...actually

elpaso007:
Ellahlakes...
What is cooking here?

While the rebasing and economy debate is raging, don’t get carried away and miss out on the fact that an opportunity has been presented in Bua cement.
If you believe in Bua’s future growth and prospects, take a long term position now at the N88.50 it is selling now.
If you are not sure because the previous numbers are not convincing, stand by the sidelines until you see reasons to.
Happy investing.

ositadima1:


Everything you said is correct, but let’s think a little further—why is so much Naira chasing so few dollars? I believe it's because we are not generating enough revenue in foreign currencies. Naturally, this leads to an oversupply of Naira pursuing a limited amount of dollars.

To connect this to my previous post, you don’t solve a problem by only addressing its effects; you need to tackle the root causes. Has the government done that? Has it declared a state of emergency on security and kidnapping? How did it handle the Dangote refinery saga—a project that could significantly boost our dollar revenue? What steps is it taking to fight corruption? What about the agricultural sector and many other crucial industries?

They seem to believe that simply adjusting a few economic levers will fix the deeper, structural issues. Ok nah.

How would you have wanted it to handle the Dangote refinery situation?

We go dey observe and watch closely sha...

KarlTom:
NOTHING ...actually

ositadima1:


I am trying to engage with you respectfully, but it’s becoming increasingly difficult. Did you follow how it all started, or were you asleep? Before Russia attacked Ukraine, there were months of deliberations between the two countries—it didn’t just happen overnight. Russia made it clear that Ukraine, a former USSR state, ing NATO was a red line. Please take the time to read up on it.

Great and Interesting!
Russia saying or demanding something does not make such demand right, factual or reasonable by default!
What then is the value of independence and sovereignty of a nation?
Just my 2 cents. Peace